If last week marked the beginning of Lent, then the weekend’s South Carolina Democratic primary was nothing less than Joe Biden’s political resurrection.

After disappointing performances in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, you could be forgiven for thinking that the former Vice- President’s road to the Democratic nomination was over before any major electoral test.

But his landslide victory in the Palmetto State, buoyed by significant support from African-American voters, was the triumphant comeback he desperately needed after a fourth place finish in Iowa and a distant second in Nevada. In New Hampshire he finished fifth behind fellow moderate candidates Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar.

Now, whatever happens tomorrow in the 14 states that vote in Super Tuesday, both of those candidates are no longer a direct threat to Biden in his pursuit of moderate support as the main establishment opponent to Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

Buttigieg withdrew on Sunday, attracting widespread praise for his campaign, while Klobuchar announced today she was suspending her campaign and planning to endorse Biden.

A top Buttigieg adviser said that a similar endorsement would be forthcoming, prompting speculation that it could coincide with a Biden rally tonight in Dallas, Texas, as the moderate wing of the party begins to coalesce around the former Vice-President.

Buttigieg, who rose from mayor of a mid-size Indiana city to a serious presidential contender, was the surprise candidate in this election cycle. A relative unknown, he outlasted household names and established politicians. After an historic campaign as the first openly-gay candidate to seek a major party presidential nomination, the 38-year-old Buttigieg can likely look forward to the longest and most prosperous political career of any of the Democrats who don’t eventually become this year’s  nominee.

Before a single vote had been cast, Biden’s position as nominal front-runner, based largely on name recognition, meant expectations were high and, inevitably, his poor performances led many to question the viability of his campaign.

“Just days ago, the press and the pundits had declared this candidacy dead,” a jubilant Biden declared at his victory rally in South Carolina’s state capital, Columbia. “We are very much alive.”

“For all of you who have been knocked down, counted out, left behind this is your campaign.”

Buttigieg’s withdrawal means Biden, at 77, is now the youngest male candidate left in the Democratic race. Billionaire Tom Steyer announced straight after the South Carolina result that he was ending his campaign. It has been estimated that he spent more than $200 million on his run.

The African-American Vote

Not only was South Carolina Biden’s first victory in the 2020 race, it was his first primary win in any of his three presidential attempts.

Going into Saturday’s contest the former Vice-President didn’t just need a win, he needed a massive margin of victory that would send a clear message to Democrats across the country that he was the only strong moderate alternative to Bernie Sanders’ more far-left agenda.

It was a victory secured by a base rooted in support from African Americans, voters over the age of 65 and moderates. While Biden won almost half of all the votes cast – a win of 48 per cent to Bernie Sanders’ 20 per cent and Steyer’s 11 per cent – he also secured 61 per cent of the African-American vote in the state, setting a huge precedent going into Super Tuesday.

There has been much discussion the importance of African-American support and its place in a national coalition, and the South Carolina primary was the first opportunity for a large bloc of African-American voters to have their say. In previous elections the black vote was particularly decisive in Democratic presidential primaries – first for Barack Obama in 2008 and then in 2016 for Hillary Clinton. Both candidates secured significant victories in South Carolina, which were a test of what was to happen later in their campaigns.

For Biden, a last-minute endorsement from South Carolina’s Rep. Jim Clyburn – the third ranking Democrat in the House of Representatives and former Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus – gave Biden the boost he needed. Roughly a third of South Carolina voters made up their minds to support Biden after Congressman Clyburn’s endorsement. But the endorsement came with a price tag and Clyburn was clear that his support would require changes within the campaign:

“If we are successful tonight… I think we will have to sit down and get serious about how we retool this campaign… I’m all in and I’m not going to sit back idly and watch people mishandle this campaign.”

Moderates vs. Progressives

South Carolina also highlighted the ideological divide within the Democratic party. While states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada were friendly towards Bernie Sanders’ more progressive policies, South Carolina was the first state with a more conservative electorate.

While there is often a tendency amongst Republicans, pundits and even some Democrats to label the party as “radical left” or invoke the old mantra of “socialism”, people forget that Democrats in southern states are often much more moderate and even at times conservative, particularly on social issues such as LGBT rights and abortion. Going into Super Tuesday this will be a real test of the issues and policies at stake.

At last week’s Democratic debate, Elizabeth Warren worked hard to make the pitch: if you like progressive policies but are unconvinced that Sanders can deliver, I’m your candidate. Yet she did little to ignite excitement in her campaign in South Carolina, and picked up just over 7 per cent of voters. Warren may still have the potential to unite moderates and progressives, but her inability to finish in a strong position in any of the four primaries so far has left her candidacy vulnerable.

Recent polling in her home state of Massachusetts – which votes tomorrow – shows her tied with Sanders and in some cases Sanders with a slight lead.

But it will be Biden’s struggle to overcome the more progressive Sanders that will demonstrate that the battle for the nomination will come down to a battle of ideas and ideologies.

Bloomberg’s quest – and questions

While former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg continues to pump millions of dollars of his own money into his campaign, he has not been on the ballot in any of the four states that have voted so far and has under-performed in the candidate debates he has taken part in. Super Tuesday will be his first electoral test and could prove to be a potential headache for Biden.

When Bloomberg entered the race in November, he did so because he felt that Biden was weak and could not win the nomination. In the three months since, he has chipped away at Biden’s lead in the national polls, especially amongst African-American voters. Bloomberg is the only candidate going into Super Tuesday who has actively had a presence in all 14 Super Tuesday states over the past two months.

But Biden’s victory in South Carolina now only raises questions about whether Bloomberg’s quest for the nomination might negatively impact Biden’s chances overall by splitting the moderate vote.

Super Tuesday Shakeout?

So what does this all mean going into Super Tuesday?

Fourteen states across the United States hold primaries tomorrow:

Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Vermont. American Samoa also holds its Democratic caucuses and The Democrats Abroad primary also begins Tuesday (running through the following Tuesday.)

There will be more than 1,300 delegates up for grabs, about a third of the total delegates and the most allocated on any single day in the primary calendar. When this is added to the 155 delegates from the four early voting states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — nearly 40 percent of the total delegates will have been won by the time Super Tuesday is over.

As a candidate needs 1,991 delegates to secure the nomination, Super Tuesday goes a very long way in helping a candidate pull away from the rest of the pack.

* The up-to-date running delegate count is here

Tomorrow offers the remaining candidates the opportunity to expand and build coalitions, especially in states such as California and Texas with large Asian and Hispanic populations.

For Biden, his success in South Carolina just three days ago allowed him to control the media narrative all too briefly. His victory should in theory support his campaign in states such as Arkansas, Alabama and Tennessee, but in delegate-rich states such as California and Texas his battle to beat Bernie is just starting.

 

See Also:

New Hampshire – Not Even The End of the Beginning Feb 13

 

And read Julia Flanagan on the Democratic debates here:

Democrats face Foreign Policy Test – December

The Road To Iowa Goes Through Georgia – November

A Dozen Deliberative Dems Debate – October

And Then There Were Ten… For Now – September

Time For The Democrats To Get Serious  – July

Democrats Turn Up The Heat For Opening Debates – June

 

If you’re enjoying Northern Slant’s coverage of US politics in this election year, please join us on March 23rd for a discussion as part of the Imagine Belfast festival about the campaign, its possible outcomes and how they might affect us here in Northern Ireland. Details and tickets are available here.