A month after the first round of debates in Miami, the huge field of 2020 Democratic candidates is preparing to again go head-to-head-to-head-to-head in the second scheduled televised talkfest. Hosted this time by CNN, the primetime shows – since that’s what they are – will take place over two nights, Tuesday and Wednesday this week, in the heart of the industrial Midwest, Detroit, Michigan.

For those who followed the debate in Miami, there will be many familiar faces. Almost all of the candidates who took part in the first debate will be back this week. And just like the opening salvo in Miami, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has imposed the same qualifying measures requiring candidates to either receive campaign contributions from at least 65,000 individuals, or hit at least a 1 per cent threshold in three separate opinion polls.

There will be one exception – California Congressman Eric Swalwell, who dropped out of the race in early July, will be replaced by Montana Governor Steve Bullock.

Most pundits agreed after the first debate that its breakout star was Senator Kamala Harris; while both the opinion poll front-runner, former Vice-President Joe Biden, and Senator Bernie Sanders gave lacklustre performances which left viewers underwhelmed. As a result of her strong performance, Harris saw a bump in her popularity both nationally and in the key early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Biden’s numbers dipped, as did Sanders’. Elizabeth Warren, who had been polling well ahead of the debate, is still among the leading pack and together with Harris, now scores highly on “likeability” – deemed by pollsters to be an important yardstick, particularly for women candidates.

Momentum can elevate a candidate’s profile, especially in a field as crowded as this. And of course all of that can change – at this early stage, voters who haven’t settled on a candidate may jump from one candidate to another, like trying different flavours of ice cream. Harris’s strong performance in Miami clearly earned her new supporters, but that group could easily shift allegiance again if someone else turns in a better-than-expected performance in the second debate. The candidates and their strategy teams will obviously bear this in mind as they head into this week and – if they’re still around – the campaign beyond.

For some candidates outside the leading group, though, the upcoming TV test could prove to be make-or-break.

Round Two

All eyes will be on the interactions between the top-tier candidates and there are some fascinating head-to-heads in store. The first night will see Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren – two of the most progressive candidates in the race – face off against Midwestern moderates Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar.

With Warren creeping up on Sanders in the polls, the challenge for both candidates will be to differentiate themselves from one another while selling many of their bold and transformational ideas, such as “Medicare for All”, free tuition in public schools and cancelling student debt. With pro-business candidates such former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper and former Representative John Delaney also on stage that night, Tuesday’s debate could easily be a battle of  contrasting ideologies that could help shape what the party stands for, and which ideas it will stand on.

The second night will see Joe Biden share the stage with Senators Kamala Harris and Cory Booker, who have both been deeply critical of Biden’s record on race issues. It’s likely we’ll see some form of re-run of the contentious back-and-forth in Miami when Harris took the former VP to task for his positions on busing. But Biden, clearly knocked off-guard by Harris’s attacks, has vowed “not to be polite” the second time round. He may even find support in fellow candidate Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who has been critical of Harris for her “personal attacks” on Biden.

While the immediate task for each of the candidates is still to stand out in a crowded field, the party as a whole must start deciding what issues they want to campaign around next year. Michigan, a crucial battleground state and one that the Democrats unexpectedly lost in the 2016 presidential election, will be a significant venue for the debates. As President Trump ramps up his attacks on “socialist” candidates and policies, it will offer an opportunity for candidates to test their progressive policies against more moderate ones.

Michigan matters

While candidates have a chance to reach out to the whole of America, there is no question that for many of them, there is an important opportunity to score points with voters across the Rust Belt. In 2016 Michigan was one of three states, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which flipped from Barack Obama to Donald Trump, securing him 16 electoral college votes and setting up his victory over Hillary Clinton, despite losing the national popular vote. Yet it is worth bearing in mind that Trump only won Michigan by less than 11,000 votes. For the 2020 Democrats, the debate in Detroit will enable the candidates to shape their talking points to try and win back some of these voters.

Democrats gained back some momentum during the 2018 midterms in Michigan with officials elected to a number of high profile state positions, including the Governorship, as well as flipping two Republican congressional seats. Campaign issues included investments in infrastructure and access to affordable healthcare.

What should Democrats talk about?

Democrats need to use this platform to speak to voters about issues relating to the future of U.S. manufacturing, trade and labour rights. Michigan is the home of the automobile industry, which in recent months has faced turbulent times. A number of General Motors factories in the state have begun closing down and are expected to move to Mexico, despite Trump’s 2016 promises to keep them operating. Democrats like Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, who have been reaching out to voters in the industrial Midwest, will likely use this chance to question whether Trump has kept his promises to workers and if he remains a friend of labour unions – or indeed whether he ever was.

For candidates who prioritize environmental policy, the water crisis in the Michigan city of Flint will be an inevitable debate point. Since 2014, following the city’s decision to switch its water supply from Detroit’s system to the Flint River, communities in Flint have experienced one of the country’s worst public health crises. Residents complained of numerous health woes that were blamed on foul smelling and discoloured water being pumped into the city for 18 months. In 2017 the Michigan Civil Rights Commission, a state-established body, concluded that the poor governmental response to the Flint crisis was a “result of systemic racism” in a city where the majority of residents are from lower-income African-American neighbourhoods. Flint, therefore, has become a justice issue as much as an environmental one and just last week Senator Kamala Harris introduced the “Water Justice Act” proposing an investment of $200bn into programs that would ensure that vulnerable communities across the U.S. would have access to safe and affordable drinking water.

President Trump’s recent racist comments targeting four Congresswomen of colour, including U.S Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a representative of a district in Detroit, is expected to serve as a focal point for candidates to argue that behavioural, as well as policy change is needed in the White House. A debate in Detroit, with the largest percentage of African-American residents of any big city in the country, will force the candidates to focus on civil rights issues in an effort to reach out to constituencies that Hillary Clinton failed to rally in 2016.

Looking ahead

For many of the candidates appearing in Detroit this week, it is likely to be their last appearance on the debate stage, since the criteria for the next event in September will be stricter. Candidates will need at least 2 per cent support in four polls and 130,000 unique donors (with at least 400 donors each in 20 states). So far Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg and O’Rourke have qualified for September’s debate in Houston, Texas.

The prospect of not having a place on the debate stage – and a potential drying up of contributions – is sure to force some candidates to consider ending their campaign. The field as it stands is far too big and makes it harder for the Democrats to do what they need to do, which is define exactly what they stand for. They will need to decide sooner rather than later whether it is enough to head into 2020 with the primary intention of removing Trump from office, or whether voters will take that as a given and they should aim to go bigger and bolder on policy, shaking up the system as they go.

The first caucus in Iowa is a mere 6 months away and which path they choose will largely depend on the candidate that emerges at the end of this primary process. Right now, it’s far from clear who that might be.