Julia FlanaganWith Republicans breathing a sigh of relief after Tuesday night’s narrow victory in a closely-watched special election for a Congressional seat in North Carolina, the remaining Democratic presidential candidates are preparing for another opportunity to make their case to the American people for why they would be the best person to take on President Trump in 2020.
On Thursday evening, ABC News and Univision will host the latest round of televised debates from the campus of Texas Southern University in Houston.
It will be the third Democratic presidential debate of this primary season, but the first to take place on a single evening. The previous two debates in Miami and Michigan spilt the field of 20 candidates across two nights, but tomorrow only ten candidates will go head-to-head in the latest battle for their party’s nomination.
Who has qualified?
The candidates had until August 28th to meet a new stricter qualifying threshold set by the Democratic National Committee (DNC). To qualify for this debate, the DNC required that candidates have 130,000 individual campaign donors and a minimum of 2 per cent support in four national polls. Ten of the 20 candidates who took part in July’s debate in Michigan failed to make the cut.
Thursday’s stage will be made up of the candidates who have been consistent front-runners through the campaign so far, including former Vice President Joe Biden, Senators Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris and Mayor Pete Buttigieg. They will be joined by Sen. Cory Booker, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Rep. Beto O’Rourke, former Cabinet Secretary Julian Castro and businessman Andrew Yang.
Three other Democrats – Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, billionaire Tom Steyer and author Marianne Williamson – met the fundraising threshold but failed to hit the polling criteria to qualify.
Seven candidates – Sen. Michael Bennet; Gov. Steve Bullock; Mayor Bill de Blasio; Rep. John Delaney; Mayor Wayne Messam; Rep. Tim Ryan and Rep. Joe Sestak – met none of the requirements, while another five candidates have dropped out since the previous debate in July: Gov. John Hickenlooper, Gov. Jay Inslee, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Rep. Seth Moulton, and former Senator Mike Gravel.
Who is most likely to clash?
In the most recent polling, Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over Elizabeth Warren, who has been making substantial polling gains in recent weeks. The former Vice President and the Senator from Massachusetts represent two different ideological wings of the party, with Biden holding more moderate positions and Warren more progressive. It will be the first time these two candidates have been on the same debate stage and if Warren is to further close the polling gap, she may need to use her time on Thursday to take on Biden directly on their differing approach to issues such as healthcare.
As the front-runner, Biden is also likely to face further attacks from Senators Cory Booker and Kamala Harris. While much of Biden’s strength lies with rust-belt voters, African-American voters are also a crucial voting block and will be of critical importance particularly in the early primary state of South Carolina. Prominent African-American candidates Harris and Booker have attacked Biden’s civil rights record in previous debates and while they have failed to make a dent in his popularity, seem unlikely to give up.
Sen. Warren and Sen. Sanders avoided confronting each other in the last debate, but as the field narrows they may be increasingly forced to challenge each other in order to differentiate themselves in the fight for the progressive vote.
Lower-polling candidates, meanwhile, will be looking for opportunities for clashes with opponents and to create “viral moments” in order to stay relevant as the campaign progresses.
What are the issues?
While issues such as Medicare for All and criminal justice were hotly debated topics at the second debate in Michigan, the candidates will also likely turn their focus to gun control and climate change.
August was yet another deadly month for gun violence in America, with shootings in Dayton, Ohio and El Paso, Texas. The latter town is the home of presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke, who since the shooting has reinvented his message on the campaign trail with a promise to fight gun violence and counter white supremacy.
Just last week CNN hosted a seven-hour climate change town hall with ten of the leading candidates. While Democrats are agreed on the need to aggressively tackle climate change, the candidates differ on issues such as nuclear energy. Sen. Elizabeth Warren has proposed the phasing out of nuclear energy, while Sen. Cory Booker and Andrew Yang have expressed more optimistic views about the future of the industry. The recent devastation caused by Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas will most likely also prompt candidates to speak out on the issue.
The potential cost of any climate change plan – Sen. Sanders’ “Green New Deal’ proposals are estimated to cost upwards of $16 trillion – is sure to remain a contentious issue, both in the primaries and then in the general election.
Recent warning signs surrounding the US economy, including declining manufacturing, the ongoing trade war with China and fears of a possible recession, will also provide the candidates with an opportunity to attack President Trump’s policies. While the president’s tax cut plan last year benefited corporations and the wealthy, it has blown up the country’s national debt and has failed to deliver the sustained growth the White House has promised. Candidates will likely take the opportunity to pin Trump with the results of these policies.
However the US continues to produce relatively strong jobs numbers, with unemployment at a near 50-year low, particularly amongst African-American and Hispanic communities. The challenge for the Democratic candidates will be to find a balanced message on the economy.
Next time around
If you were hoping that it would be one-night debates going forward, you may be disappointed.
Despite stricter qualifying criteria for this month’s debate, it was announced on Monday that at least eleven candidates have already qualified for the fourth debate in October. Billionaire Tom Steyer, who missed the cut for this week, has met the 2% polling criteria as well as achieved 130,000 individual donors. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is confident that she too will meet October’s criteria after securing 3 of the 4 polls needed to qualify.
With numerous town halls and one more televised debate before the traditional first contest, the Iowa Caucuses, still set for February 3rd (although it’s possible that date may change if New York state advances its primary) candidates will obviously be seeking to remain in the race for as long as they can. While many observers have complained that the field was and is still too large, some have been critical of the DNC’s qualifying process and the idea that the debates, and not the voters, are forcing candidates to drop out is problematic.
There is also concern that the Iowa Caucuses, followed by the New Hampshire primary, are no longer the opportunities that they have been historically in allowing voters to express their choice and that the DNC have been able to manipulate the field of candidates. California, for example, has moved its influential primary up to vote alongside Texas and other states in ‘Super Tuesday’ on March 3rd. But while California might not prove decisive since isn’t a ‘winner-take-all’ state, it is still home to many wealthy donors who will help decide the eventual nominee.
Either way, at a time when the Democratic Party is trying to define who and what it stands for, the process is allowing voters to hear a broader range of ideas. But there is still a long way to go, and whether the party is eventually able to unite around their chosen man – or woman – and their ideas remains to be seen.
Read previous debate coverage by Julia Flanagan here:
Time for the Democrats to get serious
Democrats turn up the heat for opening debates
