Amid what seems like almost perpetual upheaval and uncertainty, one of the constants about modern American politics is that, for good or ill, the first Presidential nominating contest in the electoral cycle requires candidates for the most important job in the world to trudge through snowstorms to talk to “real” voters in a draughty barn in an overwhelmingly white, agricultural state in the rural Midwest.

There are less than three weeks until voters have their say in the 2020 Iowa Caucuses, while Iowans who are registered in the state but living elsewhere can also make their voices heard, with a hundred or so remote caucus locations being organized in the US and around the world, including at Glasgow in Scotland and Tbilisi in (the other) Georgia.

And it’s particularly appropriate that there’s a global dimension this time, with recent events in the Middle East presenting the remaining candidates with their most significant foreign policy test yet for a potential commander-in-chief.

Tensions between the United States and Iran, which led to President Trump’s decision to assassinate the Iranian General Qasem Soleimani ten days ago – have sparked a robust debate between the remaining Democratic candidates as events in the region continue to unfold.

Those senators still in the race were forced to step off the campaign trail last week for a classified briefing in Washington, while the potential for further escalation forced the candidates to release statements warning President Trump against committing the US to another war in the Middle East.

What stood out from these responses was how divided Republicans and Democrats were in their praise or condemnation of the assassination. While Republicans showed their support for the president’s action, Democrats were much more cautious. While many of the Democratic candidates were quick to acknowledge that Soleimani was indeed a nefarious player in the region, they all recognized that his death marked a potentially dangerous development.

While this is a perfectly reasonable position for any politician to hold – it’s their job, after all, to hold the president accountable for his decisions – the division in the responses between both parties suggests that the partisanship that has been rooted in responses to domestic policy has now infiltrated foreign policy and national security.

Such partisanship has resulted in Republicans seizing the opportunity to paint Democrats as weak. But while indications suggest that President Trump is not getting a significant approval “bump” due to the events in the Middle East, Democrats must appear unified in their message and also demonstrate that they are serious about keeping America safe.

While international affairs aren’t always a top priority for American voters, there will undoubtedly be many who will want to avoid the mistakes of the past. The consequences of the war in Iraq have been brutal for the region and the fallout has had a devastating ripple effect on Americans at home.

Foreign policy is an important item on a president’s job description, an area of responsibility that sits under the Executive branch’s control more than many big domestic policy items. So for the Democrats auditioning for the job, Tuesday’s Democratic debate in Des Moines will be a timely opportunity to sell voters on their vision for America’s role in the wider world – and how they might offer an alternative to what the New York Times called President Trump’s “erratic leadership.”

Who’s qualified?

January’s presidential debate stage will be the smallest of the race thus far, with just six candidates meeting the qualifying criteria. It will also be the first debate of the series with an all-white line-up.

Candidates were required to hit 5 per cent in four polls approved by the DNC, either nationally or in one of the four early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina) or 7 per cent in DNC-approved polls conducted in the early states. Additionally, candidates were expected to raise money from 225,000 unique donors.

The candidates who have qualified are former Vice President Joe Biden, former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, billionaire businessman Tom Steyer and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

Entrepreneur Andrew Yang – who participated in December’s debate – failed to qualify after clearing the donor threshold, but failing to meet the polling criteria.

Other candidates missing from this week’s event include Sen. Cory Booker – who on Monday became the latest candidate to end his campaign – Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, former Sen. Michael Bennet, and former Rep. John Delaney.

Earlier this week self-help author Marianne Williamson announced the she was withdrawing from the campaign, while former Housing Secretary Julian Castro announced just after the new year that he was ending his run.

Latest polling and endorsements

With no clear-cut favourite in the state at the moment, much of the media and public scrutiny continues to focus on the top tier candidates, with all of the top four – Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg – polling higher in recent weeks.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg – the only candidate in the field with military experience – may have held much of the Iowa polling momentum at the end of 2019, but Bernie Sanders has performed strongly recently, something matched by his national fundraising performance. On January 2, his campaign announced it had raised more than $34.5 million in the last quarter of 2019.

On Friday a CNN/Des Moines Register poll saw Sanders come out top with 20 per cent amongst likely caucus goers. Rivals Elizabeth Warren polled 17 per cent, Pete Buttigieg 16 per cent and Joe Biden 15 per cent. As the caucuses approach and the race tightens, the backdrop to Tuesday’s debate took an interesting twist on Monday night when the Warren campaign released a statement saying that, in a private meeting in 2018, Sanders had told her he didn’t think a woman could win the presidency. Sanders strongly denied making the remark. It seems certain, though, that the issue will come up during questions in the final debate before the opening contest.

Nationally, the race shows a four-way contest between the leading candidates. In a RealClear Politics poll, Biden ahead of the pack nationally by 9 points. Just this week a Washington Post/Ipso Mori poll had the former VP leading significantly amongst American-American voters across the country – 48 per cent to Sanders’ 20 per cent.

It has also been a significant week for endorsements for the leading candidates. No sooner had Julian Castro ended his campaign, than he was quickly endorsing Elizabeth Warren and joining her on the campaign trail. While it was an obvious move as both have campaigned on similar social justice messages, some might conclude that Castro has his eye on a bigger role should she win the nomination – the vice-presidential spot on the ticket.

Bernie Sanders received the support of the Sunrise Movement, the influential group of young climate change activists. While Pete Buttigieg received his first African-American endorsement, from Congressman Anthony G. Brown.

The mayor of Los Angeles – Mayor Eric Garcetti – threw his support behind Joe Biden. In the delegate-rich state of California – one that Bernie Sanders has been counting on – this endorsement has given Biden’s campaign a major boost in the run-up to California’s primary, which takes place as part of “Super Tuesday” on 3rd March. Nevertheless, the most recent poll shows Sanders in front in the state, albeit within the margin of error.

So while much of the support for these candidates will be rooted in specific causes and domestic policy agendas such as immigration, the economy and healthcare, the rising tensions with Iran – particularly with the Democrat majority in the House of Representatives having last week passed a War Powers resolution – will ensure that the debate moderators keep foreign policy front and centre on Tuesday night.

President Trump’s decision to kill General Soleimani exposed policy differences among Democrats. And no two candidates illustrate this more than Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. While each of these candidates will battle it out on all fronts in the remaining weeks ahead of the Iowa vote, they will both be using the escalating tensions with Iran to present what are opposing ideas of what American leadership overseas should look like.

Running on his legacy as President Obama’s Vice-President, Joe Biden has prided himself on his foreign policy experience, citing “strong, steady, stable and tested leadership” as one of his most noteworthy qualities. A long-time member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, he claims decades of experience and strong relationships overseas make him the ideal candidate for ensuring American strength internationally.

But Biden voted for the war in Iraq and this is often used by his political opponents – including Sanders – as a disqualifying measure. For many, Biden represents the status quo, a normalcy in the direction of US foreign policy.

Bernie Sanders – who was opposed to the Iraq War – has campaigned for less military spending and more international diplomacy. For many of his supporters his decision to vote against the Iraq war has only reinforced that he can be trusted to make the right decisions.

Yet a CNN poll in November found that 48 per cent of Democratic voters thought that Biden was best placed to handle foreign policy, while Sanders polled at 14 per cent.

President Trump has set the bar with how far he is prepared to go when acting abroad, while the severity and unpredictability of the current tensions with Iran could well drive Democratic voters to choose the candidate they see as having the strongest, or most stable, foreign policy record to go head-to-head with Trump.

As the remaining candidates prepare for Tuesday’s debate, they will be reviewing and shaping their foreign policy positions, particularly those on the Middle East. But the question for voters will be clear – will they eventually vote for a return to “normal” or a radical overhaul of US foreign policy?

 

See also:

Trump’s Iran Move Upends the Chess Board

Trump Impeached In Day of Acrimony

And read Julia Flanagan on the previous Democratic debates here:

The Road To Iowa Goes Through Georgia – November

A Dozen Deliberative Dems Debate – October

And Then There Were Ten… For Now – September

Time For The Democrats To Get Serious  – July

Democrats Turn Up The Heat For Opening Debates – June