If the organisers of the Democratic presidential debates had hoped that by this stage of the campaign there would be a clear national frontrunner, they must be deeply frustrated.

As ten candidates prepare to go head to head on Wednesday night in Atlanta, Georgia, Democrats’ attention is increasingly focusing on the first actual electoral contest, the Iowa caucuses, now less than 80 days away in a state about as far removed from Georgia, geographically and culturally, as it’s possible to get.

And the somewhat surprising political story that appears to be emerging in the Hawkeye State will undoubtedly provide a significant backdrop to the next rounds of televised exchanges.

But first, lets set this week’s scene.

Wednesday night will see two fewer Democrats on the stage than the previous debate in October. Former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke dropped out of the race on November 1 and former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro missed the debate polling requirements for the first time since he announced his candidacy.

While it was intended that stricter criteria for each successive debate would help narrow the field, the opposite has happened, with two new names joining the race. Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick announced his candidacy late last week, while former New York City Mayor – Democrat, turned Republican, turned Independent, turned back to Democrat – Michael Bloomberg is likely to officially throw his hat in the ring in the coming days.

While neither will take part this week, they both have the opportunity to compete for a place at the December debate in Los Angeles.

Hosted by the Washington Post and MSNBC, Wednesday’s debate will take place in a state that is quickly becoming more competitive for the Democrats. While Georgia has traditionally leaned towards the Republicans in past presidential cycles, recent elections have seen a shift as the state has begun trending towards Democrats. In 2018 Democratic candidate Stacy Abrams narrowly lost to her Republican rival in the gubernatorial race – an outcome that led to her turning her efforts to protecting voter rights, increasing turnout and political participation.  As the suburbs grow and their populations diversify, both parties will be fighting it out for the two Senate seats up for grabs and the 16 electoral college votes in the 2020 general election.

Who’ll be on the stage?

The requirements to qualify for this week’s debate have risen since the previous debate in October. The candidates had until November 13 to reach 3% in at least four qualifying polls or 5% in two early state polls since September 12. They also needed to receive 165,000 unique donors with at least 600 of these from at least 20 states.

Those who met the criteria will appear on stage from left to right as per their recent polling status: Sen. Cory Booker, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Kamala Harris, entrepreneur Andrew Yang, and billionaire Tom Steyer. The highest-polling national candidates — former Vice President Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren — will stand in the middle.

While Biden and Warren – trailed closely by Sanders – have held onto the national front-runner status in recent weeks, as we suggested earlier, new polling released this past weekend showed a significant shift in the key state of Iowa that could potentially change the narrative of this race.

Mayor Pete’s sudden rise

A Des Moines Register/CNN poll released on Saturday found that 25% of likely Iowa caucus voters now list Mayor Pete Buttigieg as their first choice, with the other top tier candidates — Warren, Biden and Sanders — roughly tied for second. This is a remarkable 16% increase for the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, since the last poll was conducted in Iowa in September and reflects the value of traditional retail politics in a small state where such a strategy can pay off.

That surge is significant as it is happening as we get closer to caucus day itself and voters may be making their minds up, but is hardly surprising given the money and time that Buttigieg has invested in the state in recent months. While he may be the hottest ticket in Iowa, and a top tier candidate in the New Hampshire primary polling, Buttigieg is yet to show any similar breakthrough with those who  identify as very liberal and – significantly – with African-American voters. The latter is a crucial voting bloc for Democratic candidates if they are to win in 2020.

With a number of outreach events this week in Atlanta and the debate on Wednesday, Buttigieg will be looking to capitalise on his recent surge and overcome the scepticism many people still have about how qualified he is to be the nominee.

The latest arrivals

The last minute arrival of Deval Patrick and Mike Bloomberg in the race has exposed some of the worries amongst major donors and party leaders about the dynamics between the front-runners. There has been some recent concern after a key poll released by the New York Times and Siena College questioned the “electability” of the leading candidates when put head-to-head with Trump in key swing states. Biden’s long political history and Warren and Sanders’s progressive appeal are considered vulnerabilities by some within the party.

The arrival of Bloomberg and Patrick may also present challenges for centrist candidates like Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Kamala Harris, and they may well use this debate as an opportunity to plead with voters to ignore the latecomers’ candidacies and focus on those already in the race.

What are the issues?

Since the previous debate in October, the House of Representatives has launched their formal impeachment hearings against President Donald Trump over the president asking Ukraine to investigate the son of former Vice President Biden. The proceedings, which are producing some dramatic television, will result in a number of opportunities and challenges for the candidates at this debate.

Firstly for Biden, the hearings keep the accusations of alleged corruption in the business and government work of the Biden family front and centre of the conversation. As Trump and some Republicans continue to try and pivot the impeachment inquiry to focus on the Democratic candidate, this should certainly force moderators at the debate to press Biden further about his son’s business dealings and contacts.

With this impeachment process, timing is everything. A potential Senate impeachment trial – should the House of Representatives vote to send articles of impeachment to the Senate – is likely to take place either shortly before or during the primaries. For those candidates that sit in the Senate, it is highly likely that moderators will ask them what they will do in this situation. This will be an opportunistic moment to win over Democratic voters that are determined to unseat the President.

On the flip side, it also presents the Senators with a logistical nightmare. If the House did indeed vote to impeach the President – as they are likely to – the possibility of a Senate trial in the middle of the Iowa Caucus and surrounding primaries will force these candidates to spend less time on the campaign trail and more time in Washington D.C.

Medicare for All is very likely to be a key debate topic once again. At the debate in October Elizabeth Warren – who continues to make this a key policy priority – struggled to explain how she would pay for her $20 trillion proposal. Her answers at the last debate were considered to be her weakest yet. Now that she has announced a plan that would impose huge tax increases on billionaires and businesses, having a clear, memorable answer will help her in this debate and going forward.

Immigration is likely to be a key talking point given the current case before the US Supreme Court as to whether President Donald Trump can go forward with his plans to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals – or DACA as it is commonly known – program. Democratic candidates have been strong defenders of this Obama-era policy that would allow over 700,000 young adults, without legal status who have lived in the United States since they were children, to remain in the US.

Finally, since the debate is taking place in Atlanta, issues of race, criminal justice reform and crime are likely to come up. This could force Kamala Harris and Joe Biden to once again defend their past criminal justice positions and “tough on crime” policies. It could also resurrect the tensions and heated discussions between Harris and Biden that spilled into previous debates about race.

As Americans prepare to head home for Thanksgiving next week and news cycles begin to wind down ahead of the holiday weekend, the talking points and soundbites that emerge from this debate could last for several weeks. Each candidate is under increasing pressure to defend their positions, articulate their proposals and, in some cases, defend their honour.

Their final opportunity to debate each other and convince Democratic voters of their electability before the Iowa caucus on February 3, will be the next debate in Los Angeles on December 19th.

Whether these television set-pieces eventually prove to be a game-changer is still – excuse the pun – open to debate.

 

Read Julia Flanagan on the previous Democratic debates here:

A Dozen Deliberative Dems Debate – October

And Then There Were Ten… For Now – September

Time For The Democrats To Get Serious  – July

Democrats Turn Up The Heat For Opening Debates – June