The two weeks leading up Tuesday’s fourth Democratic debate have been some of the most turbulent in this year’s primary race.

Against a backdrop of an intensifying congressional impeachment inquiry into President Trump, allegations against the son of a leading Democratic presidential candidate – and questions surrounding the health of another – as well as a rapidly escalating situation in Syria, this week’s debate, co-sponsored by CNN and the New York Times, could turn out to be the most newsworthy yet.

While much of the media’s recent focus has been on the Democrats’ efforts to bring impeachment proceedings against the president – and with congress reconvening this week, that will gain speed – the party’s candidates will be looking to redirect at least some of the media spotlight onto their own campaigns and policy platforms.

Twelve candidates will take to the stage in Westerville, Ohio, a suburb of Columbus, on Tuesday evening, making it the biggest one-night presidential primary debate in US political history. Like September’s debate, the candidates had to hit a minimum of 2 per cent support in four national polls as well as meet 130,000 individual donors.

The same ten candidates from the most recent debate have qualified, including the established top trio of former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders. They will be joined by Sens. Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar, Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former HUD Secretary Julian Castro and businessman Andrew Yang.

Another businessman, billionaire Tom Steyer, will make his debate debut after getting into the race in July, while Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard will return to the debate stage after failing to qualify in September.

Gabbard has however threatened to boycott the debate following criticism of the qualifying criteria, arguing that “the DNC and corporate media are trying to hijack the entire election process.” She is yet to decide if she will appear on the debate stage.

With less than four months until the first primary votes are cast, the candidates will face tougher scrutiny and questions about a range of personal and policy issues. Here is what to look out for on Tuesday:

  

Will the candidates go after Joe Biden and his son Hunter?

While Biden’s camp has warned his opponents off, it would be perfectly legitimate for his rivals to question the circumstances surrounding his son’s seat on the board of a Ukrainian gas company while Biden was President Obama’s Vice-President. Much has been made of President Trump’s children using their father’s position to cash in on business opportunities and to argue anything else would appear hypocritical.

Hunter Biden this week said he would step down from his current role with a Chinese investment company and that he would not take on any work for foreign firms if his father was elected.

Yet while the issue raises questions about Biden Senior’s sensitivity to apparent conflicts of interest, many of the candidates will want to avoid engaging in rhetoric that would play too much into the hands of Donald Trump, who has made the most of the issue at his rallies and in interviews.

The debate moderators – CNN’s Anderson Cooper and Erin Burnett, alongside NYT National Editor Marc Lacey – are certainly likely to raise it, so the candidates will have to be prepared to address it.

In September, Biden’s nearest rival Elizabeth Warren struggled to answer an ethics question that indirectly addressed the Hunter Biden allegations. She declared that similar behaviour would not be allowed in her administration, but when pressed further became flustered and backtracked on her answer,  saying she would have to look further into the details.

 

How will the candidates handle the impeachment issue?

While all twelve of the candidates are now in favour of an impeachment inquiry, they have all come to their position at different times and for different reasons. Elizabeth Warren and Tom Steyer have been calling for Trump’s impeachment for months now, while candidates such as Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg have called for an inquiry more recently.

How the Democratic candidates frame their statements on this topic must also take into consideration the public’s attitude towards it. According to a recent NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist poll a slim majority of Americans approve of the Democratic House-led impeachment inquiry: fifty-two per cent say they approve of the inquiry, while 43 per cent disapprove. While 58 per cent would prefer to see Trump’s fate decided at the ballot box rather than through an impeachment process (37 per cent).

Another important consideration is just how long the process might take. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to finish the inquiry before next year’s general election campaign gets under way, but any stonewalling by the White House could kick the issue into the courts and drag it out, so there is a delicate balance to be struck with regards to how sustainable the public’s appetite might be.

 

How will Bernie Sanders perform in his first high profile appearance since his heart attack?

There was a time when a serious health condition would have instantly ruled out a candidate. But Bernie Sanders is not just any candidate and with a large and devoted group of grassroots support, the Vermont Senator is continuing to campaign to much enthusiasm, even after he initially said he would scale back his appearances, then insisted he “misspoke”.

Yet there is no escaping the fact that he is 78, the oldest candidate in the race. Other candidates previously took issue with Joe Biden’s age and health, with former candidate Rep. Eric Swalwell telling Biden to “pass the torch” and Julián Castro accusing Biden of “forgetting” something he had said earlier in the debate.

So Sanders will have to come to this debate prepared to show voters that this recent health scare will not hold him back from aggressively fighting the rest of the primary campaign, as well as contesting a gruelling general election.

 

Will Elizabeth Warren face the same level of scrutiny as her co-front runner Joe Biden?

After a steady rise in the polls since the summer, Elizabeth Warren has finally caught up with front-runner Joe Biden. Yet the position of “co-front runner” is likely to draw increased scrutiny to her candidacy. It is also likely to put her in the firing line with the moderators and fellow candidates alike, when it comes to holding her to account for some of her policies and positions. There are many moderate candidates – and also party members – concerned about her plans to target Wall Street as well as her positions on issues such Medicare for All and free college tuition.

Also given the level of attack and scrutiny that Biden received from fellow candidates in previous debates, will she be immune from something similar? Most recently she faced questions about her account of being fired from a teaching job because she was pregnant. An investigation into her claims have resulted in the discovery of holes in her story.

 

Will foreign policy finally get its moment on the debate stage?

Foreign policy has had relatively little airtime during the Democratic debates this year, but the catastrophic decision by President Trump last week to withdraw American troops from Northern Syria is sure to be a significant talking point tomorrow night.

The White House’s announcement that Turkey would be moving forward with a long-planned offensive into Syria and that US special forces would not be on the ground when it happened has resulted in candidates lining up to condemn the President.

“This decision is a betrayal of our ally in the fight against ISIS and risks American lives,” Sen. Kamala Harris said in a tweet. “We have a president who is telling our allies and our adversaries that America doesn’t keep her word.”

Even candidates like Warren, Sanders and Gabbard, who regularly call out against “endless wars” and campaign to bring home American troops, have condemned the president.

“I have long believed the U.S. must responsibly end our military interventions in the Middle East,” Sanders said in a tweet. “But Trump’s abrupt announcement to withdraw from northern Syria and endorse Turkey’s incursion is extremely irresponsible. It is likely to result in more suffering and instability.”

This is likely to be one of the few topics that all of the candidates on Tuesday will be agreed on.

 

Next Time Around

The Democratic National Committee announced that November’s debate will have a stricter qualifying threshold; candidates will have to reach 3 per cent in at least four DNC-approved polls of Democratic voters nationally, or in one of the four early-voting states – Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Candidates will also be required to receive contributions from 165,000 individuals, coming from at least 600 unique donors in 20 or more states.

So far, eight candidates have qualified including Biden, Harris, Booker, Buttigieg, Yang, Sanders, Warren and Steyer. As always, the pressure on Tuesday night will be on those candidates who have yet to qualify.

For some, Ohio could be their last hurrah.

 

Read Julia Flanagan on the previous debates:

‘And Then There Were Ten… For Now’ – September

‘Time For The Democrats To Get Serious’ – July

‘Democrats Turn Up The Heat For Opening Debates’ – June