With Florida sweltering in near-record temperatures this week, there’s also a forecast of political storms as the presidential primary season formally moves into its next phase.

The first major event on the road to election day 2020 takes place in Miami on Wednesday and Thursday, as the Democratic Party begins introducing the American people to someone who could be their nominee to run against Donald Trump. Twenty-five (at last count) hopefuls are seeking their party’s nomination and twenty of them will go head-to-head in two televised debates moderated by NBC/MSNBC.

With an unprecedented number of candidates seeking the nomination, there will be 10 places on the stage on Wednesday and another 10 the following night.

To qualify for the debates, party managers at the Democratic National Committee (DNC) imposed a series of qualifying measures: candidates must have received campaign contributions from at least 65,000 individuals and hit the 1% threshold in three separate opinion polls. This quickly whittled down the list of candidates, then a draw determined who took part on which night.

Logistically, NBC have gone to great lengths to ensure that the line up each evening is seen to represent a fair balance of candidates with varying poll numbers and varying exposure to the electorate. Candidates were selected for each night at random from two separate boxes containing the names of those contenders polling at or above 2% and those who polled below 2%. While this was done to ensure that lower-polling candidates had a chance to debate higher-polling oppponents, four of the six highest polling contenders will be meeting on the same evening.

The candidates’ podium positions will also reflect their standings in the polls as of 12 June.

The first night of debates will see the latest opinion poll leader Sen. Elizabeth Warren go up against Sen. Cory Booker, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Gov. Jay Inslee, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Cabinet Secretary Julian Castro, Mayor Bill de Blasio, former Rep. John Delaney, Rep. Tim Ryan and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard.

On Thursday, former Vice President Joe Biden will share the stage with Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Kamala Harris, Mayor Pete Buttigeig, Gov. John Hickenlooper, Sen. Kristen Gillibrand, Sen. Michael Bennet, Rep. Eric Swalwell, author Marianne Williamson and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.

Not meeting the DNC criteria for inclusion this time were Gov Steve Bullock, Rep. Seth Moulton, Mayor Wayne Messam, former Senator Mike Gravel and the race’s latest entrant, former Rep. Joe Sestak.

Identity crisis

It isn’t just the number of candidates taking part in the debate that will make these events fascinating to watch, it’s the eclectic mix of characters and the diverse group of career politicians and non-politicos participating. To some observers the modern day Democratic party has been facing something of an identity crisis; unsure of what it stands for following Hillary Clinton’s defeat in 2016. While it is a party with more than its share of locally popular and charismatic figures, they often find themselves at odds with competing ideas and visions for its future. Nowhere is this more evident than in this line-up of declared candidates.

While it was suggested that Sen. Elizabeth Warren might have been disappointed not to have the opportunity to debate Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders – her two closest rivals in the polls – she has the advantage of being the biggest name on the bill for the first night, when the debates will likely have the most momentum among a national audience.

With the second night of debates being a competition between polling power players, the first night will offer candidates such as Sen. Cory Booker, Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Sen. Amy Klobuchar – the next “big names” after Sen Warren – the opportunity to shine and build a momentum that so far they have struggled to do.

For Bernie Sanders – who serves in the Senate as an Independent – not sharing the stage with Sen Warren means he doesn’t have to differentiate his policies from hers, and can focus on confronting moderate candidates in the field like Joe Biden. Most recently Sanders has attacked Biden with the catchphrase #NoMiddleGround, arguing that “Biden’s “middle ground” approach would fail both to address the country’s problems and to unseat President Donald Trump.”

Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, a fierce critic of Sanders’ platform of democratic socialism, will use the opportunity to challenge him on his policies while offering a more moderate position on issues.

Biden may find himself on defence after comments he made last week about working in a spirit of civility with southern segregationist senators during his time in the Senate. Senators Cory Booker and Kamala Harris have both demanded that the former vice president apologise for his comments. If either of them are able to raise this at the debate, it could put the often gaffe-prone Biden on the spot over such a sensitive issue as race.

On the second night Mayor Pete Buttigeig, the youngest candidate at 37 and so far the surprise star of 2019, will go up against the oldest candidates Biden (76) and Sanders (77) in an attempt to pitch the  “next generation” theme that he has been promoting on the campaign trail. But he too has had problems this week, dealing with tensions among local residents in his town of South Bend, Indiana, following the shooting by police of an African-American man.

And then there are the candidates with no political experience; entrepreneur Andrew Yang and self-help guru Marianne Williamson. To my regret I recently asked the question on Twitter “Who exactly is the Marianne Williamson voter?” only to be inundated with tweets from her supporters that explained plenty about what they didn’t like in other candidates, but very little about her policy positions. But with little name recognition in a crowded field, both of them may struggle to convince the voters to take a chance on them.

What are the issues?

Following the release of the Mueller report in April – and with the news late on Tuesday night that the Special Counsel will appear before Congress on July 17th for a day of testimony – the candidates will be certainly grilled on whether they support moves towards impeachment. Five of the candidates have already come out in favour of Congress beginning impeachment hearings. 

The chairmen of the House Intelligence and Judiciary committees issued a joint statement announcing Mueller’s appearance following a subpoena, saying that “Americans have demanded to hear directly from the Special Counsel so they can understand what he and his team examined, uncovered and determined about Russia’s attack on our democracy, the Trump campaign’s acceptance and use of that help and President Trump and his associates’ obstruction of the investigation into that attack.”

It’s inevitable, therefore, that the President himself will take centre stage as he often does; dominating a room despite not being in it.

But being “anti-Trump” is simply not enough and will not distinguish any of these candidates from the other.  A majority of the Democrats’ primary voters already know where they stand on the President and whether or not they might support him. Furthermore, most voters know where Trump himself stands on many of the issues that will be up for debate.

So as far as Wednesday and Thursday are concerned, voters will want to learn the positions of these candidates – many of whom they might be hearing for the first time –  on issues including climate change, immigration, abortion, healthcare reform, guns, trade and tariffs, taxes and the economy. For example will any of them commit America to rejoin the Paris Climate Accord and reaffirm itself as a leader in the fight against climate change?

So, in a crowded field with limited speaking time, the candidates will be challenged to articulate their policy positions as well as pitching fresh ideas. Their challenge is to be distinctive while appearing knowledgable and realistic.

Bernie Sanders’ pitch will undoubtedly focus on his brand of democratic socialism, by promoting his vision as a matter of “economic rights” with an emphasis on protecting Medicare and Social Security.

Sen. Kamala Harris, who has unveiled her roadmap to citizenship for dreamers, will most likely take the opportunity to make immigration a key talking point; helped by the current high profile of President Trump’s policies and their effect on families.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren – who before joining the Senate was the first head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau – has said she would create a “Small Business Equity Fund” worth $7 billion for entrepreneurs of colour and will most likely emphasise her plans to take on Wall Street and major corporations.

In light of the recent Alabama abortion ban and moves to restrict abortion in other states, candidates will be going to great efforts to demonstrate their loyalty to women’s reproductive rights and organisations such as Planned Parenthood.

So far, foreign policy and the issues around national security have taken a back seat in the 2020 race. But the recent escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran and the President’s near-retaliation for the downing of a US surveillance drone, will be sure to see it raised as a topic. Will candidates also confirm their commitment to ensuring that America will remain a strong leader within institutions such as Nato and the United Nations?

Make or break?

Debates can frequently make or break a campaign. Although it’s unlikely that a poor showing in the opening round – especially with so many participants – might prove fatal, in an era of social media and 24 hour rolling news each debate will produce sound bites and viral moments that can either lift a candidate’s profile, or confirm pre-existing concerns about a candidate. And on tape, a gaffe is a gaffe forever. Just ask current Energy Secretary Rick Perry.

NBC will face its own test as to whether they can produce consecutive nights of compelling television with such a large group of candidates. At a time when journalists are often accused of bias, the challenge for the moderator Lester Holt and his co-hosts – including Savannah Guthrie, Chuck Todd, José Diaz-Balart and the host of MSNBC’s highest-rated show, Rachel Maddow – will be the framing and the effectiveness of their questions.

The two-hour shows begin each night at 9pm ET (2am UK time).

Producers at CNN will be watching carefully and taking notes as they gear up to host the next debate, scheduled for Detroit on July 30/31. By then, of course, Robert Mueller will have given his testimony to Congress – something that may turn out to be a far more momentous live television event than any debate, and one that could have the potential to change the direction of the race completely.

Can you name them all? The 20 Democrats who will take part in the first two debates this week