Seriously; who in their right mind decided Dry January was a good idea?

Don’t get me wrong; we should all look after our health, especially after a period of over-indulgence. If you’re doing it, well done. You’re nearly there and the start of the Six Nations on Saturday offers a perfect chance to celebrate your achievement.

But, honestly, if ever there was a time when we collectively needed a drink, it’s probably right now…

As the gloomiest and most interminable of months drags itself to a conclusion, we still have to get through Friday evening and the Brexit-bonging, flag-waving celebration of what the Irish Times calls Britain’s “great leap backwards.”  Nicola Sturgeon, meanwhile, will make a speech about how Scotland’s needs “are no longer served by a broken, discredited Westminster union.” Stormont returned this month with its own future under the shadow of Brexit far from resolved, while the campaign for the upcoming Irish election is in full swing – with apparently “nutters in every party”. So, in search of relief, it’s not much consolation to raise our eyes and look somewhat despairingly at the world around us.

There are absolutely devastating fires in Australia and powerful earthquakes have hit Jamaica, Turkey and Puerto Rico (again), while torrential flooding swept through Indonesia and a plague of billions of locusts – the worst outbreak in 70 years – threatened food supplies across East Africa.

Perhaps most alarming, the still-developing and fast-spreading Coronavirus has been declared a “public health emergency of international concern” by the World Health Organization, as the number of deaths passes 200 and it continues to reach far beyond its origin in Wuhan, China. The first cases in the UK were confirmed this morning.

With all this going on, you could be forgiven for thinking you can hear the Four Horsemen saddling up, just in time for the latest US “peace plan” for the Middle East, launched by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu with great fanfare – but not seven trumpets, as far as we know. It’s the apparent brainchild of Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who said he had read 25 books on the conflict and basically warned the Palestinians “not to screw it up.”

As well as Israel, its main beneficiary, the plan was also praised by another group on whose support Trump relies: Christian evangelicals and “end times” believers who often extrapolate biblical texts into warnings of impending conflict, usually involving Iran.

Sarah Pulliam Bailey wrote recently at the Washington Post: “Republicans (20 per cent) are much more likely than Democrats (12 per cent) to believe that the world will end in a judgment day. Twenty-seven percent of Democrats said climate change will cause the world to end, compared with 5 per cent of Republicans.”

Any Trump supporters seeking a sign, though, might be better off looking on the southern border.

Revelations

All of this, of course, is taking place against a backdrop of the biggest and most important story in recent American political history.

Barring an unexpected eleventh-hour development, the impeachment trial of Donald Trump looks set to end in his acquittal on Friday or Saturday (UPDATE – the final vote to end the process will now take place next Wednesday afternoon). After another full day of questions in the Senate on Thursday, Democrats looked to have come up short in their effort to persuade the four wavering members they needed on the other side to vote on Friday to hear from witnesses and extend the proceedings.

The likely outcome was signaled late on Thursday night when the small group of Republicans indicated that they were split on whether to hear witnesses. Tennessee Sen Lamar Alexander, who is retiring from Congress this year, said in a Twitter thread that the president’s actions were “inappropriate” but it was “up to the people” to decide what to do about it. And he said “If this shallow, hurried and wholly partisan impeachment were to succeed, it would rip the country apart, pouring gasoline on the fire of cultural divisions that already exist.”

But the trial has already certainly polarized a divided country further. As Trump signed his USMCA trade deal on Wednesday – a ceremony to which he invited a delegation of hog farmers, but no Democratic congresspeople – he gave a shout-out to a string of Republican senators concluding with “the rest of you I don’t need to bother with.”

And as we head into the end game of the impeachment trial this weekend, those same Republican senators appear set to go against significant public opinion in the country and bring the trial to a conclusion, despite much-publicised revelations in an impending book by former National Security Adviser John Bolton. Revelations or not, one evangelical pastor was in no doubt how the Lord feels about Ambassador Bolton.

On the floor of the Senate, meanwhile, the president’s lawyer Alan Dershowitz had tried to argue that a president can do anything that he defines as in the public interest for the purpose of his own re-election. Democrat Adam Schiff called such an idea a “descent into constitutional madness,” while the late night comics had even less flattering things to say.

Richard Nixon’s infamous line “when the President does it, that means it’s not illegal.” was jaw-dropping when he uttered it four decades ago. Trump’s own signature line, that he could “shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any support”, had been generally interpreted as meaning that he could get away with a crime. Under Dershowitz’s apparent definition, it wouldn’t even be a crime.

If Trump’s party, and it is truly his party now, votes to acquit him – which in his mind will of course be a complete exoneration – even the concept of a Unitary Executive likely won’t begin to cover what comes next (and if you’ve seen the movie Vice you’ll have an inkling). Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer and other Senators suggested the nation would be effectively returning to rule by a monarch. Which I guess would be kind of appropriate, given the last one the Colonies had.

The president wanted his trial wrapped up by the weekend so he can take a victory lap – what Politico calls a “flashy series finale” – at two big, nationally-broadcast events: the Superbowl and the State of the Union Address. And GOP senators are poised to deliver that for him, unless Senate leader Mitch McConnell decides at the last minute that having witnesses would offer the process some veneer of fairness that the public seems to want, with the final outcome not in doubt. But that certainly looks unlikely now.

Make no mistake – this could be a risky, short-term strategy for Republicans. McConnell is betting the Senate that no further details of wrong-doing by the president will emerge between now and November, while GOP members who have to seek re-election are, in effect, voting to cover up for the president without knowing exactly what they might be covering up for.

Then again, they might believe voters have short memories, or will be distracted by yet something else by the time November comes around.

 

Here’s what’s in store over the weekend:

Sunday: Superbowl

A hundred million viewers are expected to tune in as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers in Miami.

But the important thing for the president was always which TV network will be broadcasting the game: that of course would be Fox and Trump will be talking about the trial in a pre-Superbowl interview with his main TV booster Sean Hannity.  As CNN’s Brian Stelter points out, The hosts of “Fox & Friends” will be live in Miami for special weekend editions of their show.

Monday: Iowa Caucuses

The Des Moines Register will be releasing its final Iowa poll on Saturday and then voters have their say on Monday. The paper has endorsed Elizabeth Warren.

With some uncertainty about the outcome on the Democratic side, there has inevitably been plenty of dealmaking based around how the voting process operates. Iowa GOP Sen Joni Ernst publicly speculated during the impeachment trial how the proceedings might affect Joe Biden’s support.

Among Republican voters, the president, who held a rally in Des Moines on Thursday night, is expected to win easily over his challengers, former Massachusetts Gov Bill Weld and former Congressman Joe Walsh.

Here’s how caucuses work.

Tuesday: State of the Union

The Associated Press reports that “Although an Oval Office address and campaign rallies have been floated as part of an impeachment victory lap, the timing makes the pomp and ceremony of the State of the Union the natural place to begin the next phase of Trump’s presidency, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.”

In summary, here’s a diary of what we have to look forward to over the coming weeks:

Feb 2: Superbowl

Feb 3: Iowa caucuses

Feb 4: State of the Union

Feb 7: Democratic Debate

Feb 9: The Oscars!

Feb 11: New Hampshire primary

Feb 19: Democratic Debate

Feb 22: Nevada caucus

Feb 25: Democratic Debate

Feb 29: South Carolina primary

And if that’s not enough, March 3rd is Super Tuesday, when fifteen states, covering about a third of the US population, will be holding their primary contests.

By St Patrick’s Day, when politicians from North and South traditionally descend on Washington, New York and other locations across the country for their annual shamrock-themed photo ops, we should have a much clearer idea of who will be the Democrats’ choice to run against Donald Trump in November.

Exactly how that race unfolds remains to be seen.

 

You might also enjoy:

Trump’s Iran Move Upends the Chess Board

Trump Impeached In Day of Acrimony

And read Julia Flanagan on the Democratic debates here:

Democrats face Foreign Policy Test – December

The Road To Iowa Goes Through Georgia – November

A Dozen Deliberative Dems Debate – October

And Then There Were Ten… For Now – September

Time For The Democrats To Get Serious  – July

Democrats Turn Up The Heat For Opening Debates – June