In a political world where literally anything can happen, it’s probably clichéd to say that the week about to begin is pivotal; just as pivotal, almost, as the week we’ve just left behind. But events on both sides of the Atlantic – and indeed around the world – are set to take further dramatic and portentous turns over the coming days, some predictable, others dangerously not.

The familiar Chinese curse, “may you live in interesting times” has rarely been more appropriate. Nor, sadly, have the words of Civil War General William Tecumseh Sherman: “It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, more vengeance, more desolation. War is hell.”

Conflict intensifies in Syria

Casualties are mounting by the hour after Turkish forces launched an offensive in northern Syria, in what the New York Times called “a powerful illustration of the forces unleashed by President Trump’s decision to pull back American troops shielding former Kurdish allies” and which has implications for a possible resurgence of ISIS.

On Sunday morning, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper described the situation as “very terrible” and responded to reports that Turkey had bombed US forces. “There’s a fog out there,” he said. “Things happen.” He confirmed that about 1,000 US troops were being withdrawn from the region.

The EU looks set to discuss sanctions on Turkey at its upcoming summit – in response to which Turkish President Erdogan threatened a “refugee influx” – while several European governments have suspended weapons exports, but despite widespread condemnation and selective pushback from President Trump’s allies at home, the situation on the ground appears to be deteriorating rapidly.

* Read ‘Kurds Are Under Attack, And We Can’t Sit Back’ by Northern Slant’s Michael Avila here.

All the President’s Men

In the US, the President’s inexplicable rationale for cutting the Kurds loose – “they didn’t help us at Normandy” – and his claim that “endless wars” needed to stop, was swiftly followed by the announcement that thousands of additional US forces would be deployed to Saudi Arabia. The difference?

 

Congress reconvenes this week, with pressure growing on President Trump from the House impeachment inquiry and its rapidly-expanding support among American voters. After the president’s lawyer announced the White House would not co-operate with the “illegal” House inquiry, the president himself appeared to react in a familiar way:

But pressure on the president and members of his administration is growing among moderate Republicans.  One of the president’s high-profile conservative critics, columnist George Will, argued this week why impeachment is necessary, even if it ultimately fails in the Senate.

“If Trump gets away with his blanket noncompliance,” Will writes, “the Constitution’s impeachment provision, as it concerns presidents, will be effectively repealed, and future presidential corruption will be largely immunized against punishment.”

Meanwhile, there is some sense that a defeat for impeachment in the Senate is not necessarily the sure thing it had been, even comparatively recently.

With developments and revelations in the Ukraine scandal unfolding almost too rapidly to absorb, the remarkable testimony by former ambassador Marie Yovanovitch on Friday set the scene for further crucial appearances this coming week: the president’s former Russia aide Fiona Hill will appear before the inquiry on Monday and then on Thursday, former ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland, one of the men at the centre of key text message exchanges, will appear.

It also emerged at the end of the week that Trump’s personal  lawyer Rudy Giuliani is reportedly under federal investigation after two of his associates were arrested at Dulles Airport in Washington.

As the wagons appear to be circling, though, the president seems set to continue to rely on his “great and unmatched wisdom.”

For good measure, the latest TV debate among the Democratic contenders aiming to take Donald Trump’s job is scheduled for Tuesday evening in Ohio. Northern Slant’s Julia Flanagan will have a curtain-raiser here tomorrow.

Brexit still treading water

It seems that time is – still – running out to avoid a no-deal Brexit, with the British PM set to talk with EU leaders again tomorrow. Earlier in the week, Boris Johnson and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar met to discuss Northern Ireland’s position in relation to the EU Customs Union, resulting in some optimism of a shift, but chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier said on Sunday that “a lot of work remains to be done.”

Ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the European Council, EU officials continued to talk up the prospects of a “technical extension” past 31 October, amid the continuing possibility of a NI-only backstop, as envisaged in a previous Withdrawal Agreement. Either way, this coming week is increasingly being described as “make or break” for the British Prime Minister, and could culminate with a rare parliamentary sitting next weekend, on what is already being called “Super Saturday.”

Back in the real world, though, the gloomy economic projections of a no-deal Brexit continue. The first part of the government’s Operation Kingfisher report shows that 29 of the 33 areas in the UK most vulnerable to significant job losses all voted to leave.

Tomorrow is the Queen’s Speech, widely seen as the starting point on the road that will lead to the next general election. Her Majesty won’t be wearing the “EU Hat” again.

Meanwhile, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said she would request consent by the end of the year to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence. Her plan would be to hold the vote in the second half of 2020.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn appeared to confirm that he would step down if his party failed to win the next general election.

Oh, and today marks 1,000 days since Northern Ireland had a functioning representative assembly. On the 1009th day, local abortion and same-sex marriage legislation is set to be enacted.

 

Around the world in 80-ish protests

Long-running protests continued by pro-democracy demonstrators in Hong Kong and the Gilets Jaunes in France, but they’re far from the only ones this week…

Quito

Haiti

Seoul

Even Barcelona

As columnist Will Bunch writes:

“Both our limp liberal democracies and the far-worse authoritarian governments that are increasingly replacing them tend to rely on the same trick: That the great masses of people won’t notice what they’ve been up to.

“For many years, the world that was predicted in the 1980s by the late, brilliant theorist Neil Postman – that popular mass culture would create a society amusing itself to death and shunning any civic responsibility – allowed them to get away with it. In 2019, there’s been a wave of recognition, that the corruption is so blatant and out of control that it’s finally time to put down the TV remote and head outdoors.”

Meanwhile, the Met Police said more than 1,300 people had been arrested in London after the first week of Extinction Rebellion protests. Expect climate protests and high-profile demonstrations across major capitals to grow.

Now for the weather…

More than 20 people were killed and several are missing after Typhoon Hagibis struck Japan, the most powerful such storm to hit the country in 60 years.  More than 350,000 homes have no power and 14,000 have no running water.

Incidentally, today is UN Disaster Risk Reduction day.  More than four billion people were affected by disasters between 1998 and 2017; 96 per cent of the events were weather-related.

Meanwhile more severe wildfires in California destroyed homes and forced about 100,000 residents to flee – something that is becoming part of the state’s “new normal.”

And I don’t know about you but this doesn’t sound good…

 

Climate campaigner Greta Thunberg didn’t – as some people had expected – win the Nobel peace prize (and maybe Newsweek’s reaction was a little too woke…) The award went to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, for a record of reform initiatives and leading a local accord with Eritrea ending 20 years of conflict.

With recognition of how quickly Thunberg has grown the School Strike movement, though, she will still have plenty of opportunities to demonstrate its effectiveness for making a contribution to peace. But hey, who needs a Nobel Prize when Fatboy Slim plays a remix of your UN speech…?

And finally…

In the midst of the world’s madness, and with inevitable questions circling around another sporting hero, there was a moment of genuine human achievement and joy this week, when 34-year-old Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya became the first person to complete a marathon in under two hours.

 

 

Believe.