Arlene Foster has announced that she will be stepping down as First Minister and leader of the DUP. The move came less than 24 hours after the News Letter reported that up to 75% of DUP MLAs were calling for her to go. The straw(s) that broke the camel’s back? According to Sam McBride, it was the fact that (a) she abstained on (rather than voted against) a motion concerning the banning of conversion therapy in NI; and (b) her continued, tacit support for North-South co-operation as evidenced by Diane Dodds attending a meeting of the North-South Ministerial Council. In other words, many within the DUP seem to think that Foster has been (essentially) too liberal, or not ‘hardline’ enough, on certain issues. 

But the issues run deeper. It’s been no secret that events over the past few years have created & exacerbated existing tensions within unionism. It’s also no secret that the DUP in particular have been on the defensive much, much more frequently too. The RHI scandal burned up a lot of trust among many voters. They pushed hard for Brexit, and then were unhappy with Theresa May’s proposed deal. They backed Boris Johnson as Tory leader when May resigned, only to find themselves with an ‘oven baked deal’ that was arguably much worse than May’s. The Northern Ireland Protocol, whilst giving NI unique status within the UK as a place with access to the EU’s single market, has seemingly become the bane of their existence. A referendum on a united Ireland is looming. To top it all off, violence has resurfaced in parts of Northern Ireland, much of it coming from loyalist areas the party would see as being part of their core vote.

And yet, to put it bluntly, what exactly did the party expect? If there was serious internal objection to the party’s direction at critical points over the last five years, why not move when it was still possible to work for different outcomes? I’m not a unionist, and so maybe I don’t fully understand the ins and outs of all this, but I find it very hard to muster much (if any) sympathy for either Arlene Foster or the DUP. What exactly was the alternative to the now infamous ‘Irish Sea border’? A land-based one, running from Newry & Armagh to Derry & Strabane? Even if this was to be as supposedly ‘seamless’ as EU borders with Switzerland and Norway that were pushed by Brexiteers across the UK, they knew that such a thing would be wholly unacceptable to many (not just those in the republican community). And still pushed for it.

The present crisis in the DUP is what the party – not simply Foster alone – has brought about. It seems to me that the party willfully and knowingly mislead many, both those within their voter base and outside of it, regarding Brexit and the solutions to the Irish Border issue. There always had to be a border somewhere. If you leave the EU Single Market and Customs Union, there is going to be a border. End of. They knew that, and they knew that a land border on the island of Ireland wouldn’t be acceptable. So again, I ask: what did they expect?

Brexit isn’t the only issue. There are other problems that affect everyone in Northern Ireland – lack of mental health funding, a still segregated education system, the effects of austerity to name but a few – that would undoubtedly have caused as much pain and hardship for those within the unionist community, especially for those in the working-class loyalist areas where violence has erupted from in recent weeks. But again, these seem to be areas where the DUP have let people – especially those in their own voter base – down over the years.

Of course, they aren’t the only governing party in Stormont. An argument could be made that all should share the blame to some degree for these policy failures. But let’s not forget that it was the DUP who held the balance of power at Westminster and kept a minority Conservative government in power for over two crucial years. The party secured an extra £1 billion in funding for Northern Ireland, but for too long it seems not enough priority has been given to improving material conditions for working-class communities, whether they be unionist or not.

Arlene Foster’s fate has been sealed. But the real question is what else could a new leader realistically do? Concessions in terms of the UK aligning with EU standards and extensions of grace periods could be granted for the NI Protocol, but then as soon as those grace periods run out or standards need to change for various reasons, this whole thing could start all over again. There will need to be cooperation with the Republic on a whole host of issues, including infrastructure and tourism. More spending within working-class communities would be welcome too. But, above all, one thing needs to be said: the DUP – and its new leader – need to start being honest with their base.

The NI Protocol is here to stay. Concessions can be granted, but this is how the new reality is going to be. This is what Brexit was always going to mean in some shape or form. Unionism is a shrinking force, and there is more than likely going to be a referendum on Irish unity in the next decade. The longer the DUP hide from these realities, the longer they feed conspiracies and stir up anger, the worse things will get, both for them electorally and (given the violence seen in past weeks) for Northern Ireland as a whole. DUP voters should expect more.