A recent LucidTalk poll showed Sinn Féin in pole position on 25% and well on course to take the First Minister’s post in any future Stormont election.

It may be only a single poll and as the proverb states “one swallow does not make a summer,” but unionism needs to think strategically come the next Assembly election if it is to focus on promoting its ideological vision and avoid facing a much-talked about ‘border poll’ anytime soon.

That specific Lucid Talk poll had all three main unionist parties lagging behind Sinn Féin, with the UUP enjoying the ‘Beattie Bounce’, then the TUV moving into the mainstream, and Jeffrey Donaldson’s DUP trailing behind in third place.

Donaldson is already threatening to pull his ministers out of the Executive, thereby collapsing the Assembly, and perhaps forcing the Northern Ireland Secretary of State to either call a pre-Christmas election or delay an election until the next scheduled date of May 2022. 

A now likely scenario

The key point is how unionism will react if in the next Assembly election, Sinn Fein does indeed become the largest party and takes the First Minister’s position for the first time since the Assembly was set up in 1998. 

Under the initial terms of the Good Friday Agreement, the First Minister and deputy First Minister were jointly elected with the support of a majority of unionist and a majority of nationalist MLAs (‘parallel consent’). However, that scenario was radically altered under the St Andrews Agreement of 2006 when the DUP and Sinn Féin agreed that the First Minister’s post would automatically go to the largest party in the Assembly – then the late Ian Paisley’s DUP. The deputy First Minister would then go to the largest party of the second-largest community in the Assembly.

Supposedly, the DUP agreed to such a radical change from designation to party on the assumption that it would always remain not just the largest party in the Assembly, but also the lead voice for unionism.

But the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scandal (dubbed “cash for ash”) along with the recent civil war within the DUP, which saw it having three leaders within as many months, has radically altered the balance of power Parliament Buildings.

Put bluntly, the DUP no longer has a comfortable majority of unionist support, and if the pattern from the latest LucidTalk poll is repeated in the next Stormont election, Donaldson will most certainly not be in the running for First Minister. 

Indeed, given the Alliance ‘bounce’ in those past three elections – Westminster, Europe and council – the nightmare scenario for unionism is that the next Executive is dominated by Sinn Féin and Alliance ministers, leaving unionist parties with the least influence in any devolved government.

While the First Minister comes from the largest party, the deputy comes from the party of the next-largest designation. Even with another Alliance ‘bounce’, it is unlikely that the ‘other’ designation will be the largest in the Assembly after the next election.

If Alliance finished as the second largest party in the Assembly behind Sinn Féin, but ahead of the three main unionist parties, it would require reform to allow Naomi Long to become deputy First Minister – and the UK government may be inclined to bring forward such changes.

What the unionist parties need to be aware of is that Westminster has already ruled on devolved matters, such as same-sex marriage, abortion rights and even the forthcoming cultural package – so why would it not bring forward reforms to Stormont designations? The precedent has been set.

Options for unionist parties

So, what should unionist parties do they finish behind Sinn Féin? In reality, depending on which one finishes as the largest unionist party, unionism has two routes.

If the UUP finishes as runner up behind Sinn Féin (with the latest LucidTalk poll broadly replicated in the election) then its leader, Doug Beattie, should take up the position as deputy First Minister. 

The Covid pandemic will not vanish overnight, so devolution is required to allow Northern Ireland MLAs to deal with the crisis in the NHS as well as ensure that other vital legislation is passed.

However, if the DUP or TUV finish in second spot behind Sinn Féin, the chances are that they will not nominate a deputy First Minister, thus preventing the Executive from being able to meet. This could result in either Direct Rule from Westminster (as in 1972) or some form of joint authority between London and Dublin.

Ultimately, all unionist parties would be well advised to work the Assembly as every time unionism walks away from an Executive, it is left in a politically weaker position. 

Failed strategies

In 1974, after the collapse of the Sunningdale power-sharing Executive, the Unionist Coalition had no workable alternative and Northern Ireland had to endure years of Direct Rule from Westminster, ruled by Northern Ireland Office MPs whose constituencies were not located in Northern Ireland. 

In 1976, unionism could not make the power-sharing Convention work either. The result: the continuation of Direct Rule. 

In 1982, unionism also failed to make the then so-called Prior Assembly work. It collapsed. The result: the continuation of Direct Rule. 

In 1987, some two years after the signing of the Anglo-Irish Agreement, unionism had tramped the streets of Northern Ireland with the “Ulster Says No” and “Ulster Still Says No” rallies, by-election and election protests, Ulster Clubs and Ulster Resistance, but to no avail.

During this period, the Irish government used the Maryfield Secretariat near Belfast to quietly work behind the scenes at building influence in Northern Ireland. If unionism had returned the serve politically in 1985 and established a Unionist Secretariat in Dublin. It could have found itself in a much stronger position. But no. Unionism resorted to its 1974 tactic of walk about and walk out. 

New reality

In 2021, the bitter reality which unionism must face is that while its main parties may be united in opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol, irrespective of the outcome of the next Stormont election, they cannot afford to walk out of the Assembly. Even if unionism finishes in second place after that next Stormont election, it must nominate a deputy First Minister.

The DUP no longer enjoys the influence it had over a British Prime Minister during its heydays of the “confidence and supply” arrangement at Westminster. The Donaldson camp may be thinking of saving the DUP’s fortunes as a party by adopting the stance that it is better to have Direct Rule from Westminster than Sinn Féin in lead position at Stormont. 

However, that stance could backfire badly especially if Sinn Féin ends up in a new coalition government in Dublin. In that scenario, the unionism may then be confronted not by Direct Rule from Westminster, but joint authority over Northern Ireland from Dublin and London.

If unionist parties are interested in securing and promoting Northern Ireland’s place in the UK, they will need to think more strategically.

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