The latest election night of 2019 was an historic one, with Northern Ireland returning more nationalist than unionist MPs for the first time in a Westminster election.

Alliance maintained their “surge” from the recent European elections in a first-past-the-post contest, with deputy leader Stephen Farry becoming the new member for North Down; while in a huge blow for the DUP, their deputy leader – and veteran leader at Westminster – Nigel Dodds lost his North Belfast seat to the Mayor of Belfast, Sinn Féin’s John Finucane. Meanwhile the DUP’s numbers were depleted still further when the SDLP’s Claire Hanna took South Belfast from Emma Little-Pengelly.

Overall, a total of 803,367 votes were cast in Northern Ireland – a turnout of 62.1 per cent.

The symbolism of unionism not commanding a majority within the Assembly, no longer holding two of the three European Parliament seats and now no longer having a majority at Westminster is powerful indeed. With the centenary of Northern Ireland just over a year away it will be difficult for unionism not to recognise the existential crisis it finds itself in.

The big question for the DUP is where do they go from here? Do they consider a softening of the party line or move closer to hard-line unionism? And what of their approach to Brexit? Can the current leadership change course on the policy that made them briefly kingmakers now that Boris Johnson has a majority and, he will claim, a national mandate to push ahead with his strategy without them?

The UUP’s Tom Elliot arguably held his own in Fermanagh & South Tyrone, losing out again after a recount to Sinn Féin’s Michelle Gildernew with a slim majority of 57 votes. But this was probably the only positive takeaway for the UUP last night, as it becomes apparent that their voters feel comfortable moving towards voting for Alliance.

We are witnessing a section of Northern Ireland stepping outside of territorial politics with comfort, voting on issues and not necessarily the constitution.

While Alliance had been criticised for not being part of any pacts, it appears that the party made the right choice, given its share of the vote. As fresh talks get under way on Mondayaround the restoration of the Assembly, the question for Alliance now is how this might translate into those elections when they happen, particularly in the west of the country.

After the electoral pact in South Belfast, will the Green party be able to use Claire Hanna’s win as a win for them too at the next Assembly election? But the inevitable question is what kind of precedent has been set by these pacts? Will Sinn Féin want to run again in South Belfast or the SDLP in North Belfast? How much of the vote share would split were this to happen? If the parties want to expand their individual support, this will certainly come up at the next general election, unless a similar set of circumstances as occurred last night is in play. Given the new Conservative majority, however, another Westminster election at least looks some way off.

SDLP leader Colum Eastwood won back John Hume’s seat in Foyle with a huge share of the vote. We saw a very personal campaign by Sinn Féin’s Elisha McCallion, somewhat unusual for Northern Irish  politics. Could we see more of these personal narratives brought out though our political discourse in the future?

And finally, we will no doubt get plenty of analysis in coming weeks around the question of the constitutional issue in the context of Brexit and how – and when – the UK as a whole leaves the EU. How might last night’s results translate to a referendum on a united Ireland? This will certainly be given fresh impetus now, given the highly symbolic nature of perceived changes in the relative voting strength of nationalism and unionism.

But the key to what both sides want could be held by the Alliance Party. Will the new tension in Northern Ireland no longer be surrounding green and orange politics but the constitutional question vs bread and butter politics?

Stepping aside from the questions raised, one thing seems abundantly clear from this election: Stormont needs to be back up and running for the DUP to remain relevant, while on the flip side Sinn Féin will want it up a running with an oncoming election in the Republic of Ireland due in the New Year, after a disappointing result for them at the Republic’s local council elections. Both the DUP and Sinn Féin have come out of this election with battle wounds.

With the possibility of Stormont returning and the DUP and Sinn Féin being once again polar opposites in power, is there space for Alliance to use their new-found authority within the talks process, and enable the sort of reforms necessary to get the Assembly working again?

After last night, we may find out sooner than we were expecting.

 

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