Time and time again unionist politicians have failed to widen the unionist coalition beyond the traditional bulwark of voters that have hitherto been numerous enough to secure the maintenance of the United Kingdom.

This traditional voting block – overwhelmingly white, heterosexual and Protestant – was enough to ensure a Unionist majority until the elections in March 2017.

But it is now clear, the results of this June’s General Election notwithstanding, that unionist politicians have erred in missing the many opportunities they have had to reach out to non-unionists and unionists outside the traditional mould.

Whilst it is true that a majority – 55% – would vote to remain in the United Kingdom, it is the growing gap between old and young voters that should cause unionist politicians to pause and think about the futility of all this.

 

“Should Northern Ireland REMAIN a part of the United Kingdom or LEAVE the United Kingdom and join the Republic of Ireland as one nation state, Ireland?” 2,080 responses (weighted); displaying preferences by age group.

 

Amongst older voters (defined as those over the age of 44) support for remaining in the UK is at 60% with a mere 28.9% supporting a united Ireland. Yet younger voters (those aged 18-44) now prefer a united Ireland by 45.9% to 43.8% – a small, but not insignificant margin.

There could be many factors behind this startling result – in the past unionist politicians have pointed to differential birth rates, the brain drain to the rest of the UK and immigration from the EU as a means of explaining such changes.

However, it seems evident to this writer that the conservative social attitudes of many Unionist politicians have also contributed to this – a University of Liverpool report published in August found that many young Protestants in particular feel that unionist politicians fail to represent them and their socially liberal views.

In this context it’s not hard to imagine liberal young Protestants turning away from Northern Ireland’s old-fashioned, parochial and often, angry, unionist politicians towards the moderates within Nationalism and parties such as Alliance who speak to their issues and share their views on social issues.

Regardless of the factors behind this statistic, one thing is clear – unionism is facing a demographic crisis and unless Unionist leaders act quickly the Union could be lost. And this poll reveals that Brexit is just one issue that could help determine how much of an uphill struggle unionism will face.

 

“You indicated you are UNDECIDED in terms of your vote at a NI Border Referendum – Today, but you would vote in such a referendum. Please choose the option below that is closest to your current thinking, and closest to the way you think you would vote, on this issue today.” Based on the 9.8% of respondents (in the 2,080 weighted sample) who said they were undecided on their preference, but who would still vote in any Irish unity referendum.

 

Consider the 9.8% of all voters who considered themselves undecided as to Northern Ireland’s constitutional future: this poll found that 58% of these voters would consider voting leave if the UK negotiated a ‘Hard Brexit’ whilst 34% would consider voting remain if the UK negotiated a ‘Soft Brexit’ or abandoned Brexit altogether.

This means that were Brexit negotiations to result in a ‘Hard Brexit’ over 90% of these voters could end up voting to leave the UK, adding just over 8% to the 33.7% who currently support this option.

 

“You indicated you would vote REMAIN at a NI Border Referendum – Today. What type of ‘Remain’ voter are you?” Based on the 55% of respondents (in the 2,080 weighted sample) who said they would vote to Remain in the United Kingdom.

 

This poll also found that 9.5% of those currently planning on voting to remain within the UK would consider changing their minds if the UK negotiated a ‘Hard Brexit’. With this in mind one would imagine that Unionist politicians would do everything in their power to bring about either a ‘soft Brexit’ or to see Brexit abandoned altogether – yet to date they have seem more preoccupied with preventing a ‘special status’ and telling the Taoiseach to mind his own business.

Meanwhile, prominent unionist politicians such as Nelson McCausland have made headlines for revealing that they would happily accept any cost if it meant Northern Ireland leaving the EU – one can only imagine how this went down with these swing voters.

This is unfortunate – but it is not surprising. Brexit is merely the latest issue where Unionist politicians have failed to show leadership. Consider how different the demographic picture might be if only Unionist politicians had shown some leadership and led the way on equal marriage, abortion reform or any other rights issue.

Instead they have handed their opponents a series of wedge issues with which to attract young voters and spend their days complaining that these issues have been “politicised” by Nationalists and other parties.

In all of this, whilst it is always hard to predict precisely how any referendum would play out – the Scottish independence referendum is a very good case in point – these are trends that should concern all those who support Northern Ireland’s place in the UK. Even were Brexit to be abandoned, or a ‘Soft Brexit’ to be negotiated, unionists clearly face a very real demographic challenge – and Nationalists a very real opportunity.

These are opportunities that will only increase the longer unionist politicians fail to act – as the demographic situation continues to tilt away from them and the march towards a ‘hard Brexit’ continues. Ultimately, this means that if unionists really do want to strengthen and maintain the Union, it’s time to show real leadership.

It’s time to represent young Protestants and their values.

It’s time to stand up for Northern Ireland and to oppose a ‘Hard Brexit’.

It’s time to start building the biggest possible coalition Unionism can pull together.

If unionist politicians make the hard decisions now – regardless of what it might cost them in the short term – they may well still be able to save the Union they profess to love.

For the UUP in particular, on the ropes after a shellacking at the hands of the DUP back in June, this may well be the only way for them to remain relevant. As a unionist party that campaigned against Brexit, and where a majority of MLAs are socially liberal, they may well be the only party capable of helping change the trends this poll has revealed.

Trendy, young unionist MLAs should be in the vanguard of such change and are well capable of leading it. But they had better get to work soon.

 

Methodology, and more on LucidTalk

Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk.

The project was carried out online for a period of 80 Hours from 1pm 20th October 2017 to 9pm 23rd October 2017 (80 Hours). The project targeted the established Northern Ireland (NI) LucidTalk online Opinion Panel (10,417 members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland.

3,813 full responses were received, and a data auditing process was carried out to ensure all completed poll-surveys were genuine ‘one-person, one-vote’ responses, and also to collate a robust and accurate balanced NI representative sample. This resulted in 2,080 responses being considered in terms of the final results – the results presented in this report.

All data results have been weighted by gender and community background to reflect the demographic composition of Northern Ireland resulting in 2,080 responses being considered in terms of the final results. All data results produced are accurate to a margin of error of +/-3.0%, at 95% confidence.

LucidTalk is a member of all recognised professional Polling and Market Research organisations, including the UK Market Research Society (UK-MRS), the British Polling Council (BPC), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations).

For more information, visit www.lucidtalk.co.uk and follow @LucidTalk on Twitter.

Also published on Medium.