The Good Friday Agreement brought a welcome, if somewhat uneasy, stability to Northern Ireland. However, Brexit uncertainty on top of the suspension of Stormont has put all that in jeopardy and allowed an older and deeper equilibrium to re-emerge.

If our politicians go down the path that leads to a ‘hard border’ on the island of Ireland, there is the distinct possibility of renewed and augmented militant republican violence. This is because it would be seen as a step towards cementing the ‘Britishness’ of the North as part of the UK and away from embracing its ‘Irishness’ and the possibility of a united Ireland.

If our politicians go down a path that leads to ‘some sort of border’ down the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, there is also the distinct possibility of renewed and augmented militant loyalist violence. This is because it would be seen as a step towards an encroaching ‘Irishness’ of Northern Ireland, the possibility of some future united Ireland and away from its existing Britishness and its place in the UK.

Or, to put it another way, the threats of a return to paramilitary violence brought about by Brexit are twofold: symmetrical, but opposite, and weirdly balanced. What motivates the people of violence is, of course, not economic interest or any chance of political progress or social stability but the potential threat to their perceived identity, culture, nationality and sense of belonging.

For each side these people represent part of the buffers, the ‘grass roots’, against which the politicians of Sinn Féin and the DUP must test their political strategies. They are mirror-image reactionary forces (in many senses) which canalise Northern Ireland politics and force politicians down their parallel, predictable, demoralising and sectarian paths.

In terms of a factor that influences policy, the prospect of losing votes is not as real here as the prospect of a return to violence. People, generally, do not vote for or against policies in Northern Ireland but to keep the other side from winning. Our democracy has always been fragile with the threat of violence forcing people including politicians, to take sides and keep to their own side.

However, there is a way forward and a glimmer of hope in all this current uncertainty.

Politics is changing and across the water the old Labour versus Conservative division is unravelling. Even in Northern Ireland there is talk of the ‘Alliance Surge’, ably and articulately led by Naomi Long. It is too soon to say whether this represents a robust political shift  and a real breaking of the old political allegiances. However, there does seem to be a genuine desire among a growing number of people to reject the people of violence, to rekindle the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement and to work together to build a proper, respectful and genuinely shared future. More people seem willing and able to reject the ancient, binary characterisations that we have been used to.

What needs to happen then is this:

First, politicians need to emerge who will be prepared to compromise, reach out and work together courageously – for and with each other – despite the threats of violence, to forge a new political path free from the sinister influence of extremists from either side.

Second, more and more people have to decide to put their old habits aside and to vote for them.

It’s really that simple. Can we afford to make things more complicated than they need to be?