‘Super Saturday’ became ‘Sad Saturday’ for Boris Johnston after another defeat in the House of Commons. Where does this leave the DUP and its parliamentary influence? John Coulter considers the latest twists and turns. Follow John on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter.

 

The political stage in the British Isles is now set for Manic Monday – potentially one of the craziest days in the islands’ democracy since the end of the Second World War.

On Saturday morning as MPs met at Westminster to debate the new Brexit deal, across the Irish Sea, the mood music in Northern Ireland was sombre in some quarters with the view that Prime Minister Johnston had thrown the Democratic Unionist Party under a bus.

During the first parliamentary Saturday sitting since the Falklands War in 1982, MPs backed a motion tabled by the Independent MP Sir Oliver Letwin which “withholds approval” for the deal until legislation implementing it has been passed, seeking to prevent a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.

The Prime Minister opposed the motion, and lost by 322 votes to 306. This was a setback for the government, but he complied with the law by sending a request for an extension to Brussels as required – with supplementary (signed) letter explaining why he thinks this would be a bad idea.

As European leaders consider how to respond, MPs will return to Westminster for a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal on Monday.

Monday is also the day the Stormont Assembly has been recalled to ‘debate’ the proposed more liberal abortion legislation that Westminster will introduce to Northern Ireland should there be no return of the power-sharing Executive by midnight.

 

Maintaining influence

The big question remains: where does the DUP now stand with the Johnston Government, given that its 10 MPs helped defeat the Prime Minister on Saturday? The ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement appears to be dead in a ditch.

As it stands, the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal with the EU has the blessing of the Irish government, but not the DUP. The government appears determined – in spite of Saturday’s defeat – to leave the EU on 31 October.

Will this be possible? Enter the DUP stage right. Is there anything that could politically ‘buy’ the DUP’s votes to secure an exit as planned?

The 19 October vote will not have been the final throw of the dice as far as the DUP is concerned. The deal which Johnston sought approval for on Saturday clearly demonstrated that the EU side dug in its heels on the need for Northern Ireland to remain in (de facto) in its customs union, while the DUP has dug in its heels that it will be opposing the deal in its current form.

The latest Boris deal may get through the Commons on Monday – but with amendments. Could, for example, the DUP support an amendment that would keep the whole of the UK in the same customs arrangements as Northern Ireland (and the wider EU)?

The party’s 10 MPs were decisive in rejecting this option when it was last tested in a series of indicative votes. Could any reconsideration on this dimension offer the party an escape route?

 

Back in Northern Ireland

The DUP will be exploring other ways of securing outcomes in its favour.

One wild card that must be factored in at this stage is the stalemate in negotiations between Sinn Féin and the DUP to restore Stormont, which collapsed over 1,000 days ago in January 2017.

Ironically, the Assembly is being recalled on Monday in a last ditch bid by Christian evangelicals and fundamentalists to block Westminster introducing same-sex marriage and more liberal abortion laws to Northern Ireland if there is no working, power-sharing Executive.

This is unlikely to achieve anything and is being viewed by many as a political stunt. With no agreement on restoring devolution, direct rule from Westminster seems the likely option at some point in the near future.

The DUP has already negotiated a cash boost for Northern Ireland – estimated to be around one billion pounds – in exchange for the votes of its 10 MPs to keep the minority Conservative government in power.

Historically, direct rule from Westminster involved the government of the day appointing MPs from constituencies in Great Britain to run the various political departments in the Northern Ireland Office.

However, given the arrangement the DUP has had with the Tories, could the DUP be in a position to influence which ministers are appointed to the NIO?

 

Looking further ahead

Let’s for a moment assume that Boris Johnson’s deal does make it through the Commons on Monday – in its current form.

In that scenario the DUP may still exercise leverage to try and at least shape the direction of the future trade relationship being sought between the UK and EU.

While the deal would effectively result in a trade border down the Irish Sea, the UK government’s future choices can still help shape the nature and magnitude of any economic barriers.

The key question – with some form of direct rule seemingly inevitable – is who would stand up for Northern Ireland’s interests? Would this be done as part of the overall UK negotiating team? Could the NIO – led by ministers favourable to the DUP– be given a special role?

A challenge here for the DUP is that this chapter will likely be written after the next general election. Will the party still be in such a pivotal position? And will it end up losing seats?

The DUP’s opponents will be reminding the party of the fate of a previous leader of unionism, the late James Molyneaux of the Ulster Unionists. His downfall was assured when former Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher signed the 1985 Anglo-Irish Agreement, giving Dublin its first major say in the running of Northern Ireland since partition in the 1920s.

Molyneaux always boasted of his special relationship with Thatcher, but she didn’t inform him of her intentions to sign the Agreement.

Similarly, Johnson has talked about his admiration for Winston Churchill. But in spite of the latter’s wartime heroics, Churchill was always prepared to abandon Ireland.

Has the DUP walked into another Conservative ‘Churchillian pitfall’, or does it have the sense and political maturity to getting trapped? Much will depend on its ability to use the Commons arithmetic in its favour, compromise on its previous position on the customs union, and persuade its voters that it has helped to protect the Union.