“Realists in [the DUP] are aware that it is a shift in the wider balance of power that will leave them requiring a new strategy,” wrote historian Diarmuid Ferriter in a recent article in The Irish Times. From the vantage point of a northern historian, however, the premise of the article leaves a lot to be desired.

Ferriter was prompted by Jeffery Donaldson’s speech to the Fine Gael Ard Fheis, a rather remarkable example of outreach which was greatly out-of-step with the tune of Northern Irish politics of recent years. The Lagan Valley MP made the case for the Republic of Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth. Later he went further still, laying a wreath at Daniel O’Connell’s mausoleum in Glasnevin Cemetery, which loyalist paramilitaries had previously tried to blow up (achieving nothing more than damaging the stair case).

Ferriter took these as positive signs that the DUP was moving away from the politics of Paisley, and back towards the “godfather of Ulster unionism,” Edward Carson.

A recent article to Northern Slant by John Coulter followed a similar path to Ferriter, suggesting that unionists had to adopt an all-Ireland strategy, reinvigorate the Protestant faiths and reunite with the lodges of the South.

Such developments are of course positive, and may well see unionists win new voters in the long term. But what is most severely lacking from parties designated unionists is a positive voice for remaining in the union. Mike Nesbitt tried, but his voice didn’t carry far beyond the leafy suburbs of Belfast.

There is a misunderstanding here of the fundamental core of Ulster unionism, which, though it obviously heavily linked with Irish unionism, was to some extent an estranged relation.

‘Godfather’ is an apt term to describe Carson’s relationship with Ulster unionism, considering that a godfather is not necessarily an immediate relation but instead a well-wisher whom has been appointed to oversee the safety and comfort of the child in question, usually within the teachings of the Holy and Apostolic Church.

Carson was indeed an Irish unionist, and came from a political tradition, the centre of which was Dublin: Anglo-Irish, usually ascendancy, and Church of Ireland. That Carson is buried in Belfast is a direct contravention of his life, as well as his final wishes.

The beginning of the twentieth century saw the power base of unionism migrate northwards to Belfast and County Antrim, which was more Presbyterian, more radical, and heavily segregated away from surrounding Catholic neighbours. It should not need to be said that Ian Paisley, who did not come out of nowhere, was a man of the latter tradition.

In 1912, the Ulster Covenant was signed in Belfast; signed by 500,000, some of whom signing in blood, or so the story goes. The Covenant was one of the paradoxes of Irish history, in which northern unionists pledged that they would take up arms against the British government in order to maintain their Britishness.

If we are completely honest, it is clear that Alliance is effectively a unionist party, by virtue of the fact that the union is the status quo and they do not actively seek to change the status quo. They attract voters from all sides of the community, but Karen Bradley was wrong (on so many levels, as usual) when she said that nationalists don’t vote for unionists. There is a whole subset of nationalists who would like to see unity in their lifetimes, but for now are happy for the union to remain (operative word) so long as it maintains peace, relative prosperity, and a democratic model of bin collection which James Connolly would have been proud of.

The success of Alliance as a unionist party is that they represent the full spectrum of life in their manifesto. The DUP are really a single-issue party of the union, not-an-inch and no surrender. Save for the subcategory of the bizarre obsession of many in the party’s ranks with denying LGBT people their full rights. The Ulster Unionists, meanwhile, are not dead, per se, but rather are a political thevshi which walks between the realms, kept alive purely out of spite for the DUP. There might be some members who remember Brookeborough and still see themselves as the Official Unionists.

The lack of a positive voice to represent unionist communities could be why young Protestants are more likely to go to university in Britain, and why more like to stay afterwards. They support the union by a wide margin, but they also recognise that it exists and is no longer under immediate threat by force of arms.

By speaking to the issues that matter Alliance are the only political force which provides this positive voice. The DUP say that you should vote for them because they are not Sinn Féin. The UUP tried on these clothes with disastrous consequences at the last council election, when they implied Naomi Long was on the Army Council,or something equally foolish.

If you care about education, health, keeping the lights on, and don’t necessarily want these issues to be controlled by Dublin within the next five years, then there is only really one option on your ballot paper. The security of the union lives within these issues, rather than the fear of the big bad Republicans. Preservation of the status quo is done through assuring the comfort and the ease of the day to day.

Recent polls have shown that the Brexit calamity has already made a significant number feel cooler towards the union, and as it is guaranteed to dominate the British political agenda for the next ten years, we could soon see a majority in favour of unity. The politics of fear won’t stop it from emerging.