EU election results

The past week’s EU election results indicated a possible changing tide in local politics as three women were elected to represent Northern Ireland in the European Parliament. Northern Ireland was the last part of the UK to announce its results from the EU elections due to laws that prohibit counting on Sundays. Also unlike the rest of the UK, the Single Transferable Vote system is used in Northern Ireland.

The most noteworthy result was the election of the Alliance Party’s Naomi Long, who took a seat for her party for the first time; collecting 170,370 votes, including 105,958 first preference votes – 115,000 more than the party received in the 2014 European election. Diane Dodds from the DUP and Martina Anderson of Sinn Fein both retained their seats, with 124,991 and 126,951 first preference votes respectively. It is also significant to note that both Sinn Fein and Alliance are Pro-Remain parties, while the DUP campaigned for Brexit in the 2016 referendum.

The UUP’s Danny Kennedy was eliminated at the second stage of the count, leaving the party without a representative in Brussels for the first time in 40 years after its support decreased by more than 30,000 votes on the total it received in 2014. The UUP’s loss of its European seat to Alliance led to former Justice Minister Claire Sugden to call for a new, moderate unionist party in Northern Ireland for those who do not want to vote for the DUP or Ulster Unionists.

Meanwhile in Ireland South – the Irish European Parliament consistuency that includes Cork, Limerick, Limerick, Waterford, Bray, Kilkenny, Ennis, Carlow, Tralee, Tullamore, Port Laoise and Wexford – a full recount is expected to begin this coming Tuesday. This recount is expected to cost more than €1 million and last up to 28 days.

Counting was suspended in the Ireland South constituency and the recount was triggered after Sinn Fein and electoral staff examined vote bundles from the Green Party candidate, Grace O’Sullivan, and the Sinn Fein candidate, Liadh Ni Riada, who were separated by only 327 ballots after the eighteenth count. Sinn Fein had benefitted by just one vote from a partial recheck that also took place. This recount means that the Ireland South constituency will not have any representation in European Parliament until the votes are re-examined.

Battle of the Tories

Things are heating up in the race to succeed Theresa May as 13 Conservative Party MPs have declared their intention to stand for the leadership.

Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab and Michael Gove are currently the bookies’ favourites. However, International Development Secretary Rory  Stewart’s unconventional online campaigning has gained him support from all points of the political spectrum. Brian Cox and Gary Lineker are amongst those who have expressed for their support for his “refreshing ridiculousness”. One aspect of this ridiculousness is that the biggest scandal to impact Stewart’s campaign so far is admitting that he smoked opium while travelling in Iran 15 years ago.

Another candidate making headlines is former Brexit minister Dominic Raab, who said in an interview with ITV News that he is “probably not” a feminist, and while  he wants a society which is “tolerant and warm” to the LGBT community it was important to be “very careful” about young people who express a desire to change gender. Tory moderates have launched a ‘Stop Raab’ campaign to block his path to party leadership as he positions himself on the hard Brexit side of the contest.

This has all been taking place in the background of Mrs May’s final weeks as Prime Minister. This past week a review stated that university tuition fees in England should be cut to £7,500, and called for the return of maintenance grants for poorer students. These grants were axed in 2016, which the Prime Minister now admits was a mistake. She called on her successor as party leader to reduce the burden of debt on young people, which is likely to make tuition fees and maintenance grants a major issue in the leadership contest.

Meanwhile, the other leadership election also kicked off – the Liberal Democrats leadership election. In contrast to the crowded Tory field, the Lib Dems have a two-horse race between Ed Davey and Jo Swinson. Both candidates are making the case for a pro-European position, tackling climate change and electoral reform.

Although they may not be getting the kind of headlines the Tories are getting, the Lib Dems enjoyed a surge in support in the UK European elections last week – where they took 20.3% of the vote. A YouGov poll for The Times also revealed that if a general election were to be held now, the Lib Dems would top the polls with 24%, while the Brexit Party would have 22%. However Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage had – unsurprisingly – something to say about it.

One new voter for the Lib Dems in the European elections was Tony Blair’s former spin doctor, Alastair Campbell, who was expelled from the Labour Party after revealing he had tactically voted for the pro-Remain party. Campbell has alleged that the Labour party was discriminatory when expelling him, since other members have not faced similar action despite publicly admitting they voted for another party.

Labour responded that its party rulebook clearly states that members who support another party are automatically ineligible for membership. Labour has been criticised for expelling Campbell so quickly when it only suspended NEC member Peter Willsman over antisemitism remarks this past week.  The NEC acts as Labour’s governing body and oversees the direction of the party and its policy-making process. Willsman’s suspension has also come in the shadow of the Equalities and Human Rights Commission launching a formal investigation into whether Labour had “unlawfully discriminated against, harassed or victimised people because they are Jewish”.

A do-over in Israel

Israel is facing its second general election in a year, after the Knesset voted to dissolve itself.

Just seven weeks after one nationwide vote, which saw Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party win 35 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, political chaos erupted as he failed to meet the deadline to form a governing coalition. This is the first time a new parliament has voted to dissolve itself before a government has even formed, as well as the first time that two general elections will have been held in one year in Israel.

The major sticking point in forming a government was a military conscription bill governing exceptions for ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students. Netanyahu attempted to form a coalition with right-wing parties including Ex-Defence Minister, Avigdor Lieberman’s secular ultranationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party, and ultra-Orthodox parties, who have fundamental disagreements on this bill. While Lieberman promoted and strongly supports the bill, arguing that every Israeli should share in military service, the ultra-Orthodox parties refused.

Despite Netanyahu’s attempts, Lieberman refused to compromise on the issue, and centrist parties refused to enter into a coalition with the political strongman due to charges of bribery and corruption that he is facing.

The fresh elections are expected to take place on the 17th of September, with a new government being formed in November. However in the interim Netanyahu faces new challenges, as he fired Education Minister Naftali Bennett and Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, who remained in their ministries despite failing to pass the electoral threshold in the April elections. The two ministers were told that they could remain in their positions until a new government has formed, but as that’s not happening quite yet, they have been “transferred” out from their positions. US President Donald Trump’s peace plan now faces a crossroads, with senior adviser Jared Kushner meeting Netanyahu in this past week to discuss the status of the plan. Whether Netanyahu will even be the one forming the next Israeli government – let alone implementing a plan for peace in the region –  remains to be seen.

Mueller’s moment 

As President Trump and his extended family prepare to fly to Britain for the controversial state visit beginning on Monday, pressure has grown among Democrats in the House of Representatives to move towards action on impeachment, after Special Counsel Robert Mueller gave a televised address on his report into Russian interference in the 2016 election, in which he effectively put the ball back in Congress’s court as regards any further action against the President.

Meanwhile, as if there aren’t more important things to be concerned with, the White House managed to get itself involved in an unsightly spat over whether or not it had asked for the naval warship the USS John McCain to be hidden from view during Trump’s visit to Japan, in light of the animosity between the President and the late Senator.

* Northern Slant will be running a rolling blog covering the Trump visit to Europe throughout this coming week. 

Finally, some good news

South Africa became the latest government to be gender-balanced, after President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a new cabinet that is 50 per cent women. 

This is an historic first for the country, but not for the region, with both Ethiopia and Rwanda making similar moves in the last year. However the President also faced critisicm for reappointing deputy president David Mabuza, who has long been accused of corruption. Drastic changes have been brought in as a reponse to public distrust following a series of  scandals within the administration. These changes include reducing  the number of ministers to 28 from 36 by combining a number of posts in a bid to cut spending, promote greater coherence and improve efficiency.

These changes have been described as “evolution, not revolution”, with questions now being raised about whether this will be enough for Ramaphosa to fully reform the government and get rid of corruption as he had promised.