It has been a little over six months since Korean cable TV channel, JTBC, first broke the bizarre corruption scandal that engulfed, and ultimately toppled, former South Korean President Park Geun-hye.

Before the end of this week, Moon Jae-in, a former human-rights lawyer and incoming Democratic Party President, will take up residence in the Blue House, the presidential palace in Seoul. There will be no public swearing-in ceremony à la the United States, which is probably for the best given the violent protests that rocked the capital after Park’s impeachment.

Enjoying a Theresa May-like lead in the polls since announcing his candidacy, Moon was the safe bet to take the Blue House. Less certain is what his administration will mean for Korean and international affairs at a time of domestic political turmoil and heightened international anxiety over North Korea’s Kim Jung-un’s nuclear programme.

So, what can we expect from a Moon Presidency and what are the wider implications for the Korean peninsula?

 

1. Moon’s Honeymoon

Moon is no Johnny-come-lately and has enjoyed a favourable profile, particularly among younger South Koreans, since his defeat to Park Geun-hye in the 2012 Presidential race. His media-savvy, low-security, up close and personal campaign this time around has further endeared him to the Korean left, who often criticised his predecessor for being cold, aloof, and behaving more like a political princess (she is the daughter of former dictator Park Chung-hee) than a woman of the people.

Public anger at the Park Presidency over the past few months has not given way to mass disillusionment or political apathy, but rather, an upsurge in (mostly anti-conservative) political activism – epitomised in the run-away success of the ‘candlelit protest package’. Complete with first aid kit, blanket, and LED candle (batteries included) the all-in-one protest kit became the must-have accessory and quickly sold out nationwide as large-scale anti-Park demonstrations mushroomed across the country.

The incoming Democratic administration is the obvious beneficiary of lingering anti-Park and, by extension anti-conservative, sentiment. This should make for a long honeymoon period and create some breathing space for Moon to tackle the nation’s most pressing domestic problems, namely stubbornly high youth unemployment and the worst income inequality in the Asia-Pacific region.

 

2. Moon’s Sunshine

Speculation that Moon might pursue a rapprochement with North Korea is well-placed. The son of North Korean refugees, the incoming President has spoken out against former President Park’s hawkish approach to North-South relations and has pledged to reopen the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the industrial region jointly run by the two Koreas, which Park mothballed last year.

A Moon version of the ‘Sunshine Policy’ is likely to characterise the new administration’s approach to the North. Pursued by the Liberal Administrations from 1998 to 2008, the policy sought to improve inter-Korean cooperation and promote reconciliation between the two nations.

Moon’s involvement with the Sunshine Policy in the early 2000s (he held several posts in the 2003-2008 administration) has been cited by both doves and hawks during the election campaign. North Korean state media attacks on Moon’s rivals also suggest a tacit endorsement of Moon as the preferred candidate north of the border.

Moon’s dove credentials should not be exaggerated, though. If the new President does embark upon a Sunshine-like policy, it will be ‘Sunshine lite’. Whilst highly critical of the USA’s recent deployment of the THAAD missile defence system in South Korea, Moon has also told the Washington Post that he agrees with President Trump’s approach of using sanctions to encourage the North to come to the negotiating table. That interview likely raised a few eyebrows in South Korea, even amongst his supporters.

Much hinges on the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The thaw in North-South relations that would likely follow the Complex’s reopening could pave the way for further conciliatory gestures between the two Koreas and, in the process, perhaps deprive President Trump of a bogeyman who, in any event, is feared more in the West than in South Korea.

 

3. Moon’s Eclipse?

Hardened Korean conservatives and Park devotees will not go quietly. Furious at the manner in which Park was impeached – perhaps rightly so – we can be sure that the Korean right will make trouble for Moon if and when they can.

The evidence that Choi Soon-sil abused her friendship with former President Park for immense personal gain is mounting. Allegations that Park was involved in any of this remain just that – allegations. Evidence directly linking Park to Choi’s extensive web of jiggery-pokery has yet to be unearthed. Instead, Park has been found guilty by association and deemed unfit for office.

The power of guilt by association will not be lost on Moon’s critics, most of whom will remember the multi-million dollar corruption scandal that engulfed former liberal President Roh Moo-hyun. Roh’s suicide in 2008 brought an abrupt end to most of the digging into his administration’s alleged wrongdoings.

Would it be surprising if that digging were to recommence soon? That’s if it has not done so already. The incoming President, Moon Jae-in, was Roh’s Chief of Staff.

It would be ironic, but certainly not unthinkable, if Moon were to find his administration eclipsed by the same guilt by association charges that hurled his predecessor from the Blue House into a prison cell.