Is the Michelle O’Neill/John O’Dowd tussle for the deputy leadership of Sinn Féin a stage-managed stunt or a genuine chance for debate within the party, asks John Coulter. You can follow John on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter.

 

November’s Sinn Féin Ard Fheis, or annual conference, will be the most historic for the movement, formed in 1905, since 1986 when then senior republican Ruairí Ó Brádaigh led the split from Provisional Sinn Féin over its decision to take its seats in the Dáil, to form Republican Sinn Féin.

As one of the few Irish political parties organised on an all-island basis, the current battle for vice president of Sinn Féin could easily be dismissed as a Northern ‘storm in a tea cup’ involving two Stormont Assembly members – current post holder Michelle O’Neill from Mid Ulster, and former Stormont minister John O’Dowd from Upper Bann. Both could claim to represent the modern face of republicanism, but perhaps that’s where the similarity ends.

O’Neill comes from the staunch working-class republican heartland of Mid Ulster. Her strategy must always be to recognise the role of the IRA in propelling Sinn Féin to the position of the leading nationalist party in Northern Ireland. Indeed, O’Neill caused outrage amongst the unionist community in 2017 when she addressed a commemoration to the eight IRA members of the East Tyrone Brigade shot dead by the SAS in the County Armagh village of Loughgall in May 1987. O’Neill makes no secret of her recognition of the role of ‘armed struggle’ in the republican movement.

O’Dowd is a different breed of republican. While O’Neill could be said to be the modern face of traditional Sinn Féin, O’Dowd represents the new Sinn Féin – someone, certainly from this author’s perspective, who would sit just as comfortably politically in the dark green wing of either the SDLP or Fianna Fáil.

In the Irish Republic, seat losses in May’s local council and European elections left Sinn Féin with a severe bloody nose. With the Stormont project suspended since January 2017, and doggedly maintaining its Westminster abstentionist policy, the party’s Irish unity project has focused on achieving a united Ireland through the backdoor of Dublin’s Leinster House – essentially aiming to build on Gerry Adams’ achievements in the Dáil and win enough TDs to become a minority government partner in the next Southern coalition government.

But if the recent poll disasters are replicated in next Dáil general election – expected if not later this year then early 2020 – Sinn Féin will once again be relegated to the fringe status in the South.

 

Feeling the squeeze on three fronts?

Sinn Féin has always been an autocratic movement, the grassroots rallying behind the leadership’s demands. It worked effectively under Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness but seems to have come off the political rails under current party president Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O’Neill.

While Sinn Féin’s economic policies have maintained a distinctively socialist agenda, and support for certain abortion provision on both sides of the border is a policy rather than conscience vote, there are many conservative Catholics within the party ranks and support base.

Could the grassroots be uneasy about the development of the staunchly pro-life Aontú party fronted by former Sinn Féin TD Peadar Tóibín? Indeed, Sinn Féin could find itself squeezed on three fronts.

As well as potentially losing the support of conservative Catholic republicans to Aontú, there is also the danger of losing support to a revitalised SDLP, especially in the north-west Foyle constituency.

SDLP MPs in the past had always taken their Westminster seats. At this critical time in the Brexit saga, and given that PM Boris Johnson’s parliamentary majority is in tatters, could a hard spin by the SDLP against Sinn Fein’s ‘outdated abstentionism’ be a vote winner with the nationalist electorate in any future Westminster general election?

While the Alliance Party ‘bounce’ has largely hit the pro-Union community, might the increasing demand for middle-ground politics also inflict itself on republicanism? Alliance has been making inroad west of the River Bann in terms of votes and council seats – could this seriously affect Sinn Féin Assembly and Westminster representation in the event of a split nationalist vote?

 

A stage-managed stunt or chance for debate?

So far, O’Neill has been unable to build relations with unionism and get the Stormont project back in business. Would the more moderate image of O’Dowd, who earned himself a credible reputation among unionists during his time in the Executive, be the solution?

In the South, whilst many republicans may wish to continue to commemorate their ‘patriotic dead’, these homages won’t show Sinn Fein as a party capable of reaching out to an electorate not concerned with the past and parties in Leinster House wanting a credible coalition partner.

Has Sinn Féin’s dabbling with democracy, most recently its coronation of O’Neill, backfired in terms of the rank and file demanding their meaningful say in the running of the party? Would an O’Dowd victory be the first step in a revolution within the party, marking the start of the end of even McDonald’s reign?

No doubt some cynics may see this Sinn Féin vice presidential tussle as a carefully stage-managed stunt in democracy, but a debate will nevertheless result from the contest. That in itself is to be welcomed.