How did we, by which I mean the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, get into a position where ten Democratic Unionist Party MPs are controlling government policy on Brexit, by means of threats, and against the wishes of the majority in Northern Ireland, and the best interests of Ireland, North and South?

The British public, having exclaimed in June 2017 when the confidence and supply deal was announced, “Who on earth are the DUP, anyway?” now see more of Arlene Foster and Sammy Wilson on our TV screens than we might wish or either deserves – while not nearly enough is being made by the British media of the RHI inquiry or Ian Paisley Jr’s faux pas.  Extreme unionism’s defining trait is mulishness; what the DUP are best at is stopping things from happening.

Just last Wednesday six DUP MPs voted with the Tory government to prevent a report on the impact of Universal Credit from being published, although some of them represent areas with highest levels of poverty and deprivation.

The DUP has consistently voted against same-sex marriage and abortion rights. But in a development reported by Michael Savage in yesterday’s Observer, Labour MPs Stella Creasy and Conor McGinn plan a “parliamentary ambush” to push through an amendment to a Northern Ireland bill scheduled for this Wednesday (24 October) which would legalise same-sex marriage and abortion. The Observer reports that recent polls show that 76% of people in Northern Ireland would support equal marriage rights, and 65% believe abortion should be decriminalised.

In September 2016, in an article on Brexit and Northern Ireland for The Tablet, I reported speculation in Brussels, even at that early stage, that the region might be given special status, allowing it to remain in the customs union and the single market, to protect the Good Friday Agreement and avoid reinstating a hard border.  Since then, a remote possibility has gradually moved to the foreground – due, I suspect, in no small part to the effective and diligent lobbying by the Irish government and Northern Ireland’s pro-Remain parties in Brussels.

Last Friday week, DUP leader Arlene Foster predicted there would be significant decisions and critical days ahead for the British government’s position on Brexit.  The same day, her colleague Sammy Wilson warned that the DUP were “not bluffing” in their threats to withdraw support for Theresa May’s minority government if she breaches their Brexit “red lines” – chillingly called “blood red lines” by the party leader.  Lo and behold, two days later, the talks collapsed following an unscheduled last-minute meeting between EU negotiator Michel Barnier and UK counterpart Dominic Raab.

Now the DUP are in the curious position of being simultaneously turkeys voting for Christmas, ostriches with their heads in the sand, and King Canute trying to force back the waves of inevitable change.  Polls suggest that even in May this year 69% of citizens in Northern Ireland would support remaining in the EU – compared with the 56% majority of June 2016 – and in September this year 56% said they would support a United Ireland if there were a hard border after Brexit.

In contrast, if the UK were to remain in the EU, more than a half said they would want to stay in the UK. The DUP are officially committed to seeking a Brexit deal in the best interests of Northern Ireland, and yet in their refusal to support the “backstop” deal by which there will never be a return to a hard border, they have ignored those best interests, tied Theresa May’s hands and greatly increased the chances of a re-united Ireland.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the DUP show no appetite for returning to talks to reinstate the Northern Ireland Assembly.  Brexit gives the DUP the chance to roll back the Good Friday Agreement, which they did not sign; there is no evidence that they or the present Conservative government will go out of their way to protect it or the peace process as a whole.

There is also little motivation for Sinn Féin to engage in talks so long as the principles enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement of power-sharing and “parity of esteem and of just and equal treatment for the identity, ethos, and aspirations of both communities” are bent out of shape by the DUP’s relationship with the Tory government.  Indeed, Sinn Féin are sitting pretty right now; they can sit tight and await developments – whatever way the Brexit chips fall, they are likely to advance the Sinn Féin agenda. And with growing prospects of an election in the South within the next year, their main focus is on increasing their seats in the Dáil.

What is incomprehensible is why Theresa May does not call the DUP bluff. There is a not a snowball’s chance the DUP will collapse the government and risk triggering a Tory leadership contest and a general election, which would become a second referendum on Brexit, further split the main parties and at the very least have an unpredictable outcome both in Northern Ireland and in Britain.  The DUP would do well to heed the fate of the Liberal Democrats – for the smaller party, power is a fleeting if tantalising chimera, bound to end in tears.

 

*An update to the original article, added on 28 October 2018:

The amendment to the Northern Ireland bill, proposed by Labour MPs Stella Creasy and Conor McGinn in Parliament on 24 October, passed by 207 votes to 117. It requires the secretary of state to provide guidance on the law regarding abortion and same-sex marriage.

It will not change the law in Northern Ireland. “It doesn’t write any new legislation for Northern Ireland,” Stella Creasy said, “But it does say that those human rights obligations, the things that we’ve all sworn to uphold in the Good Friday Agreement, matter and therefore the secretary of state should be looking to see what she can do to address them,” she added. The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Karen Bradley, commented during the debate that preceded the vote that she was not in favour of the amendment.