The DUP holds its annual conference this weekend in Belfast and the presence of Boris Johnson is sure to keep the focus on Brexit – as if there was any chance that it wouldn’t be.

With prime minister Theresa May having been on a charm offensive with local business leaders to swing support behind her controversial deal, the former foreign secretary has already put on record what he thinks of the business community and its possible objections to Brexit.

Now, as Mrs May heads for the EU summit in Brussels on Sunday – with the potential last-minute snag over Gibraltar – to sign off the deal that she hopes to put to parliament, the DUP remains defiantly opposed to its ‘backstop’ provision and says the party’s Confidence and Supply arrangement keeping the Tories in power may be ‘revisited’ if the prime minister’s deal passes.

In short, as has often been the case with Brexit, literally anything could happen.

As Ed Curran asked in the Belfast Telegraph on Thursday, “Who speaks for Northern Ireland?”

He wrote: “[The DUP] finds itself holding the future of the Prime Minister and her government in its hands. No unionist party has wielded such potential power since the heady days of Home Rule a century ago. The big question is, how will the DUP use that power?”

In the same paper earlier this week, the prime minister appealed directly to people here, saying that her deal “keeps us safe, protects jobs and businesses and also preserves the Union.”

So, what do we think about where Brexit is now, specifically as it affects us here in Northern Ireland?

Northern Slant is a platform for all opinions, and doesn’t take an editorial ‘line’ on the subject; rather we prefer to let the people who make up our community offer their own views. In the popular Northern Roots series where we interview folk from Northern Ireland but now living elsewhere, the Brexit question looms large in interviewees’ feelings about our political and economic future.

Here, now, are some – condensed – opinions from regular Northern Slant contributors:

 

Connor Daly, Northern Slant Editor [author profile here]

This deal was never going to be perfect, for the UK nor the EU, yet among other things it avoids a hard border and ticks quite a few boxes for our business and farming communities. For a long time, I imagined Northern Ireland would be Brexit’s collateral damage – now I see more opportunities. No one envisages a Y2K-type ‘Brexit day’ anymore which is comforting.

On the wider political context, given the current numbers game in the House of Commons, opposition to and exploitation of Theresa May’s deal for political ends was inevitable but the journey of capital ‘u’ unionist parties has been remarkable. The UUP has effectively made itself redundant with its incessant support for the DUP position. Both parties have done unionism no favours in rubbishing the economic argument being made by the business and farming organisations.

 

Joel Cassells [author profile here]

This withdrawal agreement was meant to be about setting our future as a nation outside of the EU. Instead this government has managed to concede our future as being locked into the EU single market and customs union. Worse still, the EU is insisting on hiving off NI from the rest of the UK. The agreement means the EU will impose its regulations on NI, and we’ll have no say over its rules enforced by European Courts. Is this taking back control?

The result will be more costs on NI businesses, whose trade is predominantly with the rest of the UK, not the EU. They’ll have to manage two different VAT regimes, and certain goods such as agriculture heading across the Irish sea into mainland UK will require regulatory checks. This undermines the principles in the Good Friday Agreement and article 50 in the joint report from the negotiators of the EU and UK government on having no new regulatory barriers between NI and the rest of the UK. The fact that the EU are so insistent on this area seems like a political attempt by the EU and Irish government to increase their control over NI and away from Westminster. Nationalism also seems overtly eager to support the PM in this arrangement.

Last year, Theresa May declared that ‘You can only deliver Brexit if you believe in Brexit.’ Her deal has proven her own point, she doesn’t. It’s been negotiated by a team that believe that the goal was one of damage limitation, managing the decline of a post-EU UK. Brexit in their eyes isn’t an opportunity, and the end result is a deal that doesn’t deliver what was promised in May’s Lancaster house speech.

If the deal remains as it is, the UK will have almost no new economic freedoms. It ensures the UK will be bound long term into restrictions designed to ensure we will have no competitive advantage over the EU 27. So as it currently stands, I can’t support this Withdrawal Agreement.

 

Vicky Cosstick [author profile here]

The PM, warned Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, DUP Chief Whip, on BBC’s The View programme last week, had “boxed the UK into a corner” and Northern Ireland will be “entrenched in a customs union and single market.”

Whatever stance you take on Brexit, it appears Theresa May has played a blinder in one respect at least. It seems the proposed Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement, business and agricultural interests in Northern Ireland, while swatting off the DUP’s demands: no border in the Irish sea and no special conditions for Northern Ireland.

The DUP are now out in the cold, huffing and puffing and threatening to blow the house down. Donaldson confirmed that they will vote against the Agreement – and if the Agreement passes, the DUP would review the confidence and supply arrangement with the Tories.

Asked by Mark Carruthers about the £600,000 still owed to Northern Ireland under the terms of the pact, Donaldson blithely boasted that the DUP could then support the government on a “case by case” basis and he could negotiate to retain the £600,000. But, if the DUP votes against the Agreement, will it not be violating the terms of the pact? Surely it is the DUP who are entrenched, and now boxed into a corner.

Touché, Mrs May.

 

Jamie Pow, Northern Slant Deputy Editor [author profile here]

Rewind to the referendum campaign and you might remember Norway and Switzerland being heralded by senior members of the Leave campaign as countries that can do perfectly well outside of the EU, despite the fact that they have to accept many rules without having any real influence over how they are made. I haven’t heard those arguments recently, mainly because we were told that leaving the EU must mean leaving the single market and customs union.

Rewind again to the referendum campaign and you might remember widespread concern that leaving the EU would create serious headaches for Northern Ireland, both practically and politically. These were brazenly dismissed as scaremongering.

It is perfectly legitimate for the UK to leave the EU, but if it is to do so in a way that delivers on a bunch of incoherent pledges, then this deal should come as no surprise.

I share many of the Brexiteers’ concerns and frustrations with what’s on offer, which is largely why I had no enthusiasm for opening up this can of worms in the first place.

At the end of the day, to me this messy deal isn’t ‘capitulation’ or a ‘betrayal’ of Brexit. This is Brexit.

 

Michael Avila [author profile here]

I cannot see how the inclusions of the ‘Brexit’ deal, so far, are not a win for both communities in Northern Ireland.  You have all the benefits, plus some, when compared to the rest of the United Kingdom, in remaining in the European single market, while still not technically being part of the EU. This appeases ‘Brexiteers’, while protecting the Northern Irish economy and free trade on the island and abroad. Ties to the Republic of Ireland barely change for the Nationalist community and Unionists remain united with Britain.

Additionally, there are now economic opportunities to capitalise on, domestically, within the UK, with the additional benefits Northern Ireland now has as the only part of the UK with an EU land border. Belfast could be a significant hub for trade between the UK and the EU. This is great for ‘bread and butter’ issues across the communal divide, no matter what your political slant is.

I was never pro-‘Brexit’ and never will be, but, as it stands now, this is the best deal we could have hoped for, especially economically. A hard border was my greatest concern as part of ‘Brexit’ and, if that continues to be avoided, I am happy enough with this deal. However, a considerable amount of infrastructure and programmes that have helped facilitate the peace process comes from EU funding, and I am highly sceptical that this will be replaced easily or prioritised by the UK government.

 

Steve McGookin, Northern Slant Associate Editor [author profile here]

The thing that’s probably hardest to comprehend – certainly for many watching from overseas – is that what’s about to happen is completely self-inflicted and unnecessary. We’re where we are because David Cameron chose to use this issue to try to resolve an internal Conservative party dispute.

We’ve talked about nothing else for two years but the question I keep coming back to is exactly why the DUP would embrace the Leave campaign to begin with, presumably having a fair idea that the country would end up divided and the union potentially weakened.

Perhaps they didn’t think Leave would win and saw an opportunity to identify more closely as British without the consequences of actually having to implement what they were supporting. Maybe they gambled that the Leave campaign would come up just short enough to allow them to be seen as plucky runners-up with some kind of aggrieved patriotic cause.

But if that really were the case, there have been plenty of opportunities since the referendum to credibly step back from the edge and appear pragmatic enough both to respect the local vote and appreciate the magnitude of the specific challenges pressing ahead would mean for Northern Ireland. Yet they haven’t. Neither do they seem open to the idea of salvaging something positive from the chaos by considering a best-of-a-bad-job solution that could actually give us a preferential economic position to the rest of the UK, which God knows we need.

At its heart, Brexit may be the inevitable manifestation of pent-up English nationalism; but for years to come it looks like it is ourselves and the Scots – and, particularly, young people – who will pay for it.

 

You can follow the DUP conference on Twitter this weekend at #DUP18

What do you think of the Brexit deal and the implications for Northern Ireland? Let us know.

You might also enjoy:

An Uncertain End Game for the DUP – Dean Farqhuar

The Renewable Brexit Incentive – John Stevenson

The Brexit Issue We’re Neglecting  – Kerrie Milford

Also published on Medium.