So, that was the week that was. Stilted photo-opportunities and cordiality at the start, complaints that Julian Smith has scarpered from the restaurant without paying by the end.

Here are my five takeaways.

 

1. It’s back to work we go…

There was a reason the devolved institutions crashed three years ago. Problem is, no-one seemed able to quite remember what it was. It had something to do with Arlene Foster’s attitude to stepping aside while an internal investigation was undertaken into her handling of the Renewable Heat Incentive policy – and something more general about the attitude of the DUP to proper power-sharing. But memories fade.

The raw politics of this past week is straightforward. It didn’t serve Sinn Féin’s interests to stay out of office any longer. They maximised the electoral dividend of confronting hardline unionism back in the 2017 Assembly elections, coming within 1,100 votes from pushing the DUP into second place. Subsequent elections have seen both the SF and DUP votes top-out, with last month’s Westminster election highlighting the potency of the ‘get back to work’ vibe, channelled effectively by the SDLP and Alliance.

Tactically, then, Sinn Féin and the DUP found themselves in the same place. Returning to business shoots that fox.

 

2. Now for the South

Leo Varadkar’s decision to call a general election for February 8 provides a theoretical opportunity for Sinn Féin to find itself in government both in Belfast and Dublin. In that respect, restoration of the NI bodies has come just in the nick of time. Mary-Lou McDonald now heads into an election with the North sorted, sending out the subliminal message that they can be trusted to work in partnership in government down south too.

The lack of interest from both Varadkar and Micheál Martin in countenancing coalition with Sinn Féin is well rehearsed, but let’s see how the post-election numbers look. I’m sure thousands of Fianna Fáil leaflets, criticising Sinn Féin’s obstinacy, have already been pulped.

 

3. Safe space

For Arlene Foster, sitting behind the First Minister’s desk is a safe space. Northern Ireland’s political class, as well as the two governments, have clearly decided the British tradition of direct ministerial accountability will not apply to her over the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal.

The agreement document is full of careful pre-positioning for when the inquiry report lands, (with new checks and balances and the like).

Clearly, no-one wants to risk collapsing the institutions again to force her out, regardless of how severe Sir Patrick Coghlin’s criticism may yet turn out to be over her poor stewardship of a policy that has wracked-up a half a billion pound liability for the taxpayer.

This is quite extraordinary. (Presumptuous, too, in assuming criminal charges won’t follow). And although she’s a curious mix – being both thick- and thin-skinned – Foster must be aware she is now drinking in the last chance saloon. Her leadership of the DUP – and unionism more generally – has been nothing short of disastrous.

Just take the last few months.

Duped by Boris. A border down the Irish Sea. Abortion and same-sex marriage imposed from Westminster. Two lost parliamentary seats. Irish language legislation. Arlene Foster is the Jonah of unionism. Yet she persists. Her staying power defies political physics. Even for her, though, this must be last life stuff. Expect her to be on her best behaviour and, perhaps, to avoid pandering to her base every five minutes. Perhaps.

 

4. Stability

The optics of the restoration have been good. Lots of smiles. An inclusive Executive, with the UUP, SDLP and Alliance coming back into the fold. Gender equality too. But will it last? For Sinn Féin, the devolved bodies are an interregnum until there’s Irish unity. For the DUP, a chance to be top dog on their home patch. The SDLP and Alliance want to make the place work, address everyday concerns and build bridges (metaphorical ones, not one reaching to Scotland).

The UUP’s acceptance of the difficult health brief, is intriguing. Sorting out the nursing strike and addressing the underfunding problems might help them escape the political lacuna they have been beached in these past two decades.

Anyway, the focus now is on avoiding periodic crises with a monthly forum of party leaders to discuss ‘ongoing issues’ and provide “early warning” of anything that might create “future political tension and disagreements.” (Reminiscent, perhaps, of the cool-off area they used to have behind the stage on The Jeremy Kyle Show?)

 

5. Money

The one thing guaranteed with all political deals is that no matter how much cash is put on the table, it will never be enough. This week’s settlement keeps Northern Ireland in an “austerity trap,” according to Conor Murphy, the new  Sinn Féin Finance Minister. He is clear that he doesn’t want to be left administering Tory austerity and will be looking towards the budget in March for more cash to lubricate the deal.

An effective negotiator, he is right to rattle his sabre (or his tin cup?) and will probably get whatever he needs down the line. Despite Julian Smith brushing off such concerns this week, it remains in his personal political interest to keep this show on the road, after earning brownie points for getting Northern Ireland out of Boris Johnson’s in-tray.

The fundamental problem remains: Northern Ireland isn’t built to function properly. It’s too small and remote, so can’t make proper use of economies of scale. Ironically, if you were serious about making the place work, in administrative and financial terms, you would accelerate joint working with the South. If you strip-out all the identity stuff, the entirely logical move is to integrate public services and infrastructure with Dublin. Of course, this is anathema to unionists, who seem to prefer bribing pity cash from Westminster.

 

And, finally…

One final thought. Austerity has clearly affected the Northern Ireland Office’s communications budget. The front cover of the document was a clip-art special, written in what looks suspiciously like Arial.

‘New Decade, New Approach.’

Old fonts?