“Strong backing for Union in new poll” was how the unionist-leaning Belfast News Letter reacted to the report released by Queen’s University this week: Northern Ireland and the UK’s Exit from the EU – What do people think? In a survey 21% of 1,000 respondents said currently they’d vote for a united Ireland in the event of a border poll, 50% said they’d vote to remain within the UK.

For some capital ‘U’ unionist politicians, it’s a headline that propels a complacency not shared by Prime Minister Theresa May and ignores the high volume of respondents who answered ‘don’t know’ or would not vote to the same question. Presumably, they’re waiting to see how the whole Brexit thing pans out.

It’s as if 69% of interviewees didn’t say they would vote to stay in the EU if there was another referendum (compared to 56% in 2016), and 61% didn’t say that they favour the UK as a whole remaining within the customs union and single market.

As polls continue to express NI voters’ unease with the Government’s intention of leaving both the customs union and single market – the QUB study suggests only 15% of citizens support this position, advocated by the DUP including a minority of the party’s own voters – why certain Unionist leaders have become ardent cheerleaders for the hardest Brexit is baffling.

Beyond the here-and-now newspaper headlines there should be cause for unionist concern. What have unionist parties done since 2016’s referendum to endear themselves to the (apparently growing) ‘Remain’ electorate? A year since unionism lost its majority at Stormont for the first time, how are these parties going about broadening their appeal to a generation of voters whose demographics are increasingly receding from their favour? As we approach the centenary of Northern Ireland’s existence, are they showing any signs of reconciling with anything Irishness?

Speaking at a conference in London on Monday, DUP leader Arlene Foster said unionism stands for pluralism and multi-culturalism and urged unionists to reclaim citizenship and rights issues. The surest way to cement the Union, she added, “is for Northern Ireland to be open and provide a successful environment in which to live and work.” However, if you’re not a party devotee, pluralism, multi-culturalism and rights aren’t terms you’d tend to associate with capital ‘U’ unionism.

Aside from RHI incompetence, three things younger people associate the DUP leader with are: dismissal of an Irish language act, branding Sinn Féin crocodiles in the process; Mrs Foster describing herself as “gatekeeper” against nationalist and republican Executive ministers; and her telling Patrick Kielty that she’d move away in the event of a united Ireland.

In another poll released today, by ICM, 60% of respondents in Northern Ireland said they believed Brexit has made the break-up of the UK more likely. Come a hard Brexit, should unionism continue to ignore the wishes of the electorate and refuse to change its tone, how many could be open to the idea?

The majority of capital ‘U’ unionism backed Brexit probably assuming the traditional NI narrative of Catholic/Protestant nationalist/unionist would stay the same. It won’t. Capital ‘U’ unionism has had chance after chance to change. Right now, who really sees this happening? On the question of a united Ireland there are already a lot of ‘don’t knows’ floating around. Unionist politicians discard them at their peril.

Also published on Medium.