Are Unionists sure they can trust the Tories to protect Northern Ireland? That’s the key question posed by John Coulter. You can follow John on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter.

Many Unionists, especially those in the DUP, seem cock-a-hoop that the next Tory leader – and ultimately for a few months at least the next British Prime Minister – will try to deliver a harder Brexit than predecessor Theresa May.

While the two leadership contenders paid a courtesy visit to Northern Ireland for a hustings, and Boris Johnson indulged the DUP with a photo-call with leader Arlene Foster, the entire pro-Union community should not rest easy that the next Tory PM will necessarily protect Northern Ireland in the long-term.

There is a real difference between a Conservative Government protecting the Union, and a Conservative Government protecting Northern Ireland as part of that Union.

If the bookies are correct in their reading of the Tory faithful, Boris Johnson will be the next leader and PM. One of his predecessors, Maggie Thatcher, once boasted that her Commons’ Finchley constituency was as British as Northern Ireland.

But if ‘BoJo’ enters 10 Downing Street, will the Westminster MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip be able to issue the same boast? Try to understand the current Conservative mindset. Which Union is the more important to the Tory Party – the Union with Scotland, or the Union with Northern Ireland?

Or put more bluntly, if there was a snap General Election, what would the Tory Party and BoJo as PM relish more – additional MPs north of the border in Scotland at the expense of the Scottish nationalists, or having to rely on the DUP again to retain a Commons majority?

Or put even more bluntly, would a future Tory Government be prepared to sacrifice Northern Ireland’s position within the United Kingdom to get a harder Brexit deal for Great Britain? Surely Tory spin doctors could dress up a ‘united Ireland’ so that it would be that in all but name only?

The DUP has been able to boast about the millions of pounds it has supposedly gained for Northern Ireland as a result of the current Confidence and Supply agreement with the Conservatives at Westminster.

But that was under Theresa May’s premiership, and although there are strong hints that it will continue under the new Tory PM’s rule, how long will that arrangement last?

More importantly, could the DUP be bought off with further cash boosts, especially if those financial injections diverted attention away from any future ‘cash for ash’ embarrassing reports?

And very bluntly – what cash ‘sweeteners’ could BoJo give the DUP so that the issue of a hard border in Ireland would disappear, allowing Westminster Tories to really give the political ‘two-fingered salute’ to the European Union come the exit date of Halloween night?

Northern Ireland’s Unionist community does not have an entirely unblemished relationship with the Conservative Party, or indeed, past Tory Governments.

If Westminster could guarantee the weekly benefits for the loyalist working class, investment in the health service and schools, as well as specific trade deals for Northern Ireland, maybe London could ‘persuade’ Loyal Ulster to embrace an all-island identity and solve the Brexit border crisis.

Unionists might remember that while it was a Labour British Government which accepted the Hunt Report in 1969 on policing in Northern Ireland, which recommended the abolition of the Ulster Special Constabulary – better known as the B Specials – Edward Heath as Tory PM did not overturn the decision when the B Men disappeared as a force in 1970.

In Unionist security history, the B Specials are credited with helping to guarantee that the IRA’s 1956-62 border terror campaign did not spread deep inside Northern Ireland as the Provisionals were to achieve during the Troubles.

Likewise, Unionists should remember that it was Tory Ted Heath who dropped the political bombshell on the pro-Union community by proroguing the original majority-rule Stormont Parliament in 1972.

Similarly, many Unionists rejoiced when right-winger Maggie Thatcher became British PM in 1979. But six years later, she signed the Anglo-Irish Agreement in November 1985 giving the Irish Republic its first major say in the running of Northern affairs since partition in the 1920s.

Unionists and loyalists tramped the streets and towns of Northern Ireland for months with their ‘Ulster Says No’ and ‘Ulster Still Says No’ campaigns, and all to no avail.

They formed the Ulster Clubs movement, Ulster Resistance, the Ulster Movement for Self Determination, held protest by-elections, and days of protest, but gained nothing.

To use Thatcher’s own war cry – ‘the lady’s not for turning!’ – best summarises that Tory Government’s attitude towards the Hillsborough Accord.

Such was the friction between Unionism and the Tory Party during this period that the Ulster Unionists formally severed their ties with the Conservatives. Ironically, a clique of well-heeled people in Northern Ireland’s middle class pro-Union community decided to form Conservative Associations in some constituencies.

In spite of being formally organised in the Province for just over 30 years now, the Northern Ireland Tories have been unable to win any seats at Assembly, Westminster, or European levels.

Then take another Tory Government under the premiership of John Major. His reign from 1990-97 witnessed both the disbanding of the Ulster Defence Regiment and the notorious Downing Street Declaration.

The UDR was disbanded in 1992. It had replaced the B Specials and was seen as playing a significant role in combating the republican terror campaign using local soldiers. Many Unionists felt betrayed by the disbandment, leaving the pro-Union community vulnerable to the IRA and INLA.

In December 1993, the Downing Street Declaration was seen as nothing more than a political sweetener to Sinn Féin, the SDLP and Dublin. It was also viewed by Unionists as the foundation stone for the disbanding of the Royal Ulster Constabulary, to be replaced by the PSNI.

Ironically, it was a former Tory MP – Chris Patten – who designed the Patten reforms which led to the disbanding of the RUC in 2001. Patten was also the last Governor of Hong Kong before it was formally handed over to China. The current unrest in that region has not gone unnoticed by sections of the pro-Union community in Northern Ireland as ‘yet another Tory mess’!

Unionists should not forget that it was Tory PM David Cameron who initiated the EU Referendum – which he lost! The UK as a whole voted to leave, while Northern Ireland as a region voted ‘remain’. His successor, Theresa May, has been unable to secure an exit deal which will substantially benefit Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland’s pro-Union community would do well to watch the very disturbing coverage of the growing crisis in Hong Kong.

Labour PM Tony Blair may well have been in 10 Downing Street when the colony was handed over to China in July 1997. But it was the previous Tory administration which rubber-stamped the decision.

This Twelfth, perhaps Unionism should replace traditional chants of ‘No Surrender’ and ‘Not An Inch’ with ‘Never Trust A Tory!’

The small print of the Brexit deal on 31 October may well confirm if there is any merit in this new slogan for the pro-Union community in Northern Ireland.