Fine Gael have been engaged in a cold war for months. Outgoing Taoiseach and party leader Enda Kenny made no secret of his intentions to stand down and faced irresistible pressure to do so since January. The Fine Gael parliamentary party have long discussed who they would back when Enda finally went.

Two principle contenders were known to be interested in the job, namely Housing Minister Simon Coveney and Social Protection Minister Leo Varadkar.

After Enda’s snap announcement that he would resign, all other contenders declined to stand and backed the two front runners. It quickly became apparent that Mr Varadkar’s camp had the upper hand.

The plan was simple: come out early with an overwhelming show of force and watch as the undecideds jumped on the bandwagon. It worked.

Mr Varadkar’s team started with an endorsement from 9 Senators. This was specifically planned to dispel rumours that Mr Coveney had majority support in the Seanad. It was followed by backing from the party’s “big beasts” in the Dáil: Richard Bruton, Paschal Donohoe, Charlie Flanagan and, finally, Tanaiste Frances Fitzgerald.

 

The current state of play can be seen in the numbers below (as reported by the Irish Independent):

Leo Varadkar: Total: 44. Ministers, 16; TDs, 16; Senators, 11; MEPs, 1.

Simon Coveney: Total: 19. Ministers, 5; TDs, 5; Senators, 8; MEPs, 1

 

The importance of numbers is underlined by Fine Gael’s electoral college system. 65% of the contest is decided by the parliamentary party; 10% by councillors and the remaining 25% by party members.

Fine Gael has a parliamentary party of 73, meaning that each endorsement is worth 0.9% of the total contest. Before a single councillor or member of Fine Gael has cast a ballot, Mr Varadkar has 39% of the votes sewn up. He needs just 32% of councillors and members to guarantee victory, and this assumes that Mr Coveney receives the votes of all 8 Fine Gael parliamentarians yet to pick a horse.

This contest is all over bar the shouting, and it’s important to look at the consequences for Fine Gael and Ireland as a whole.

The most profound consequence is, I believe, that we are heading for another General Election in the Republic of Ireland.

Leo Varadkar has never been comfortable in a government propped up by independent TDs and arch rivals Fianna Fáil. I suspect that, despite assurances to the contrary, Mr Varadkar will go to the country in the Autumn. You can expect a campaign loosely based on the Conservative principles of strong and stable government to deal with the challenges of Brexit as Mr Varadkar seeks to capitalise on his honeymoon period.

You can also expect a major shift in Fine Gael’s front bench. There have already been some hints. Simon Coveney will be offered a place on the team. 30 year-old Health Minister Simon Harris faces demotion. I’m tipping Eoghan Murphy, Michael D’Arcy, Paul Kehoe and Josepha Madigan for promotion.

Mr Varadkar will want to go to the country with a refreshed team of younger TDs and draw a line in the sand between his leadership and that of Enda Kenny.

Mr Varadkar’s rise to the office of Taoiseach is a watershed in Irish politics. The first openly gay Taoiseach and first Irish PM with non-European heritage is cosmetically new.

However, you can also expect a more ideological approach from an unashamedly classically liberal Taoiseach and perhaps a dilution of the civil war politics that has defined Irish politics since the inception of the state. This is particularly relevant as Micheál Martin is from the left wing of Fianna Fail and I can see the potential for clear blue water opening up between the parties.

However, Mr Varadkar’s success or failure will be marked against his predecessor who is undoubtedly a hard act to follow. Enda Kenny had 15 years at the top of the party and made history as the first Fine Gael Taoiseach to win a second consecutive term. It remains to be seen if Mr Varadkar can enjoy the same success.