According to the rules that govern Northern Ireland’s devolved settlement, the parties only have until Monday afternoon to form an Executive. Should that Executive not be formed by Monday we face the very real prospect of a second election, the third in under a year.

Who would that benefit? I’ve taken a look at some of the key constituencies in a potential #AE17b.

 

Lagan Valley – SDLP loss to DUP or UUP?

Lagan Valley produced the shock of the election when the SDLP’s Pat Catney was elected whilst sitting MLAs Jenny Palmer of the UUP and Brenda Hale of the DUP lost out. The final result saw 2 DUP MLAs join the UUP, Alliance and SDLP who each took one seat.

If there were to be another election, Pat Catney would be a big target for both the UUP and DUP, either of which could win this seat with better vote management. In terms of quotas the DUP had 2.5 quotas, the UUP 1.5 and the SDLP 0.5. This will make for a tight and particularly brutal race.

 

Fermanagh and South Tyrone – DUP to retake their second seat?

Arlene Foster’s constituency provided an unexpected surprise when Lord Morrow lost his seat despite coming fourth in first preferences. SDLP transfers played a key role in the constituency, helping to get both Jemma Dolan and Michelle Gildernew over the line and allowing Rosemary Barton of the UUP to overtake Lord Morrow.

That said, only 300 votes separated Lord Morrow and Sinn Féin’s Sean Lynch in the final count so expect the DUP to fight hard to regain this seat. Barton, on 0.7 of a quota, could still lose out to the DUP should SDLP transfers prove less forthcoming next time so it’s all still to play for.

 

Belfast North – Might the DUP or Alliance make a gain?

Nelson McCausland was one of the biggest names to lose his seat when the DUP failed to get three across the line in North Belfast. That left Sinn Féin on two and the SDLP on one in this competitive constituency. Another election would see a big DUP push to regain that lost seat with the SDLP’s Nichola Mallon and Sinn Féin’s Carál Ní Chuilín looking the more vulnerable of the sitting MLAs.

That said don’t count out Alliance who came very close to picking up a seat here with half of a quota.

 

Strangford – Another SDLP surprise?

Strangford is unaccustomed to electoral shocks but it came close when the SDLP almost picked up the final seat here – a feat that would have marked the first time the constituency has elected a nationalist MLA. As it was, the DUP managed to get three MLAs over the line with the UUP and Alliance returning one each.

The UUP’s Philip Smith lost out but with the UUP only having 1.2 of a quota it seems unlikely they could regain this seat soon. With that in mind another election could set the DUP’s Peter Weir up for another nail biter with the SDLP’s Joe Boyle was only 225 votes short last time. Could a unionist gain in Lagan Valley be offset by a nationalist gain in Strangford?

 

East Antrim – A Sinn Féin comeback?

The East Antrim constituency was a rare good news story for the UUP on an otherwise bad night as John Stewart gained a second seat for the party at the expense of Sinn Fein and the DUP. This was made all the more impressive considering the UUP started with just 1.4 of a quota.

Yet this second seat will be a hard defence for the party with Sinn Féin’s Oliver McMullen on 0.6 of a quota. The DUP, on 2.1 quotas, will find it hard to retake a third seat here but were they to dent the UUP’s vote they may well hand the final seat to Sinn Féin.

 

Belfast South – A UUP gain from the Greens?

The most diverse seat in Northern Ireland saw the DUP’s Emma Pengelly lose out. But the story of the count was the unexpectedly strong showing for the UUP’s Michael Henderson who ended up in contention for the final seat against the Green candidate Claire Bailey. With the Henderson on 0.5 of a quota and Bailey on 0.6, competition for the final seat, and for a second seat for unionism, will be fierce. The DUP will have to choose whether or not to run two candidates this time.

Clearly there is plenty to play for were there to be another election. Yet factors such as Sinn Féin’s strong result last time, the UUP’s lack of a leader and the invocation of Article 50 could all throw up unexpected results, whilst public anger at another election could lead to a surge or fall in turnout resulting in some more surprises.

 

Looking ahead

In all of this it is far from clear that a second election would be of particular benefit to any single party. Whilst the UUP and DUP might hope to make gains in constituencies such as Lagan Valley and Fermanagh South Tyrone, it is by no means guaranteed that Sinn Féin and the SDLP will not make further gains in constituencies such as East Antrim and Strangford.

On the other hand, Sinn Féin and the SDLP may well experience a relative slump depending on the reaction from an unsettled unionist electorate.

A second election then would be a huge risk for all parties. This should help focus minds in Stormont Castle over the weekend.