Belfast, Sep 2022: Voters on both sides of the Irish border head to the polls this Thursday to decide whether they want to become part of a reunified Irish state or not.

The referendum on the province’s constitutional status was called after British Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn decided the threshold for triggering a border poll – a key component of the Good Friday Agreement – had been met.

This follows Sinn Féin’s emergence as the largest party in May’s elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly. Meanwhile, the combined votes of nationalist parties now outweigh those of unionists.

Last year’s census found that Catholic-Nationalists now outnumber Protestant-Unionists, who as well as representing an ageing demographic, have seen a leaching to centrist parties by young, educated Protestants, who are amenable to living in a united Ireland that remains inside the European Union.

They are set to play a crucial role in the referendum, which is being characterised as a ‘dual’ vote – a chance to vote for Irish unity – and reject Brexit. If the unity campaign triumphs, Northern Ireland is expected to immediately re-join the European Union.

This will safeguard around €600m a year in funding that Northern Ireland was poised to lose. It’s expected to help convince many rural voters who, experts predict, will hold their noses and vote for unity. “They’ve decided to be farmers first and unionists second,” explained one pollster.

The campaign is being led by the group ‘Vote4Unity’ – a collection of ‘civic’ figures from across Northern Ireland’s sectarian divide – with all the main Dublin political parties supporting the call for unity.

The Irish government – a coalition led by Fianna Fáil and supported, following last year’s Irish general election, by Sinn Féin – has promised a smooth transition and a constitutional convention to accommodate Unionist identity.

The main proposal is to formalise a devolved offer to Northern Ireland’s councils that allows for a hefty degree of autonomy inside the Irish state, as well as constitutional guarantees around religious freedom and cultural expression.

The British Government, although officially neutral, has said all along that it will facilitate the wishes of the majority under the principle of consent – that there can only be change when a majority wishes it.

The promise of fast-tracked British passports for any Northern Ireland resident that wants one in the event of a vote to leave the UK is helping assuage some unionist fears.

“We’ll do everything we can to reassure unionists that they can have an enduring connection to the UK. But let’s face it: we’ve been heading to this point for years,” says a senior Whitehall source.

The source added: “If unionists had done more to convince nationalists to stay perhaps we wouldn’t find ourselves here, but we have – and now it’s a case of playing out the endgame.”

Meanwhile Chancellor or of the Exchequer, John McDonnell, has pledged to retain the £10 billion British subvention to Northern Ireland for at least a decade, as a way of helping the harmonisation process, picking up the costs of items like public sector pensions.

At a stroke, concerns about the financing of unity have been taken off the table. “Given Ireland’s one of our biggest trading partners, it’s in our enlightened self-interest for this to go well,” says a Treasury source.

Most polls have the Irish unity campaign between 5-7 points ahead. Although there are complaints this threshold is not sufficient for such a significant change, the fact that 52% was enough to drive through Brexit has done much to nullify the argument.

Southern voters are expected to back the reunification of the country by a margin of two-to-one.

In the main, the British media is ignoring the entire issue, as Westminster continues to grapple with the ramifications of Brexit and the looming prospect of Scotland now taking a second tilt at independence.

“There’s a feeling of inevitability about all this” says an unnamed minister. “I don’t see anyone changing their holiday plans to trek over to Belfast in order to convince voters to stay.”