The 2019 general election campaign is now well underway. In Northern Ireland, most of the attention so far has focused on announcements by parties which constituencies they won’t contest on 12th December. What effect might these decisions have on the election, and are these consequences more complicated than may initially appear?

 

Unionist unity?

The discussion around pacts began with Steve Aiken, the new UUP leader, declaring that his party would contest all 18 seats in Northern Ireland. This would have meant a change in policy, because it had previously stepped aside to help the DUP hold North Belfast and Lady Sylvia Hermon hold North Down.

Both were seats the party did not have a realistic chance of winning and so stepping aside was a sensible decision, given that the DUP reciprocated and gave the UUP a free run in Fermanagh and South Tyrone. In previous elections this approach delivered key wins for unionism.

There has since been a lot of controversy. It has been reported that loyalist paramilitaries had threatened the UUP over its plans to stand in North Belfast, while prominent unionists sent a letter asking Steve Aiken to rethink his approach. Interestingly this letter was signed by prominent local UUP members.

Eventually Steve Aiken backed down in North Belfast, while standing UUP candidates in other competitive constituencies like South Belfast. Perhaps he would have reached this decision on his own, but the apparent pressure from paramilitaries will leave many uncomfortable, perhaps driving more moderate unionists into the Alliance camp.

 

An anti-Brexit alliance?

The SDLP have also stepped aside in North Belfast in an effort to unseat the DUP’s pro-Brexit Nigel Dodds. While the party hasn’t endorsed Sinn Féin (or Alliance), party leader Colum Eastwood says there is a “clear choice” for voters in the constituency if they want a pro-Remain candidate elected.

Not everyone in the party was happy with the decision. Interestingly, Mairia Cahill announced that she was quitting the SDLP, claiming the decision to stand aside in North Belfast was motivated by sectarianism.

The lack of an SDLP candidate will certainly give a boost to Sinn Féin’s campaign, but Alliance must also be expecting a significant improvement on their previous result. Only three candidates will contest the seat, with all three arguably offering a unique platform.

In the previous election Nigel Dodds still finished narrowly ahead of the combined Sinn Féin and SDLP vote; every vote will make a difference. With the smaller parties deciding not to compete, Sinn Féin will be hoping that Green Party voters follow their party’s advice to support John Finucane rather than Alliance’s Nuala McAllister.

North Belfast is, of course, just one constituency, but its campaign dynamics may have a knock-on effect elsewhere.

 

From cooperation to competition

The SDLP may need tactical unionist votes in Foyle to reclaim the seat from Sinn Féin. Is it likely to receive these votes if unionists perceive the party to be aligned with Sinn Féin? Is it consistent tor Colum Eastwood to attack Sinn Féin for their abstentionist policy while assisting them in a different seat?

However, there may ultimately be something to be gained by the SDLP. Sinn Féin has reciprocated its move in North Belfast by standing aside in South Belfast, even going so far as endorsing the SDLP’s candidate, Claire Hanna. Assuming even half of Sinn Féin voters do turn out for Hanna then the SDLP will almost certainly take this seat from the DUP – further helped by an endorsement of the Green Party.

This move has been a significant blow to the Alliance party. A recent LucidTalk poll actually showed Alliance to be the favourites to win in South Belfast. While this poll is working on the assumption of turnout similar to that of the European and local elections, it does show a significant upward trajectory for Alliance across Northern Ireland and they are clearly still targeting this seat as a potential gain. But Alliance now faces an uphill struggle.

 

Unwelcome endorsements?

Elsewhere, Sinn Féin have also stepped aside in North Down and East Belfast. That in itself is not unusual; the party has little chance of even retaining a deposit in either seat. What was more interesting is that it endorsed specific – non-nationalist – candidates in each constituency.

While Alliance’s Naomi Long and independent Lady Sylvia Hermon would have been content to receive a few hundred extra votes, it is doubtful that either welcomed this particular development. Indeed, only a few days later Lady Hermon announced that she would not be standing for re-election.

Ever since Belfast City Council voted to only fly the union flag on designated days, loyalists have been keen to portray Alliance as ‘Sinn Féin lite’ or as part of a ‘pan-nationalist’ movement. A candidate being endorsed by Sinn Féin in such strongly unionist areas will add fuel to this narrative and may simply have the effect of rallying unionists and loyalists behind the DUP. Alliance will hope that the fact they are the only party fielding candidates in every Northern Ireland constituency can reverse this perception.

The non-unionist pacts have been promoted as ‘pro-remain’ arrangements aimed at weakening the strength of the DUP. For this to work, these parties need support from pro-remain unionists. They may get that support in some areas, but it is naïve to believe that unionists are likely to consider voting for Sinn Féin in North Belfast. Sinn Féin may have selected a less divisive candidate than Gerry Kelly, for example, but the party’s campaign (and those actively involved) has already come under scrutiny.

 

The bigger picture

With all this focus on Northern Ireland it is easy to forget about the rest of the UK. The Brexit party have announced they will not be standing in any seat currently held by the Conservative Party in an effort to maximise the pro-leave vote in Parliament. On the other side there of the argument there are also pro-Remain pacts between the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Plaid Cymru.

This time pacts are not limited to Northern Ireland, but perhaps they will have a similar effect. Pacts can have the, perhaps unintended, consequence of disenfranchising voters. Who can a nationalist vote for in East Belfast? Who does a pro-Remain unionist vote for in North Belfast?

In an Assembly election these would not be issues due to vote transfers, giving voters plenty of choice and an ability to express a range of preferences. But in a first past the post election we are actually giving voters less choice and blocking potential for change?

It is possible that not every voter actually cares who wins in a two horse race – they may simply want to have their say and vote for their favourite candidate, regardless of whether or not they have a chance of winning.

One thing is for sure though: pacts add a different twist to elections. The forthcoming contest will be one the most unpredictable for some time.