Could the European Commission and the EU-26 do the dirty on little old Ireland, preferring, instead, to placate the British Government?

Theresa May and her ministers are betting the house that they will.

There is still a belief among Brexiteers that all is not as it seems and protestations of fealty to the backstop, Ireland, as well as the principles of the single market, are less solid across the chancelleries of Europe that they are in corridors of Dublin and Brussels.

It’s a bold move, as Sir Humphrey used to say in ‘Yes Minister,’ especially as the Commission and various foreign ministers were clear again yesterday that there can be no renegotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement after the House of Commons narrowly backed Theresa May’s bid to attempt to do just that.

But it’s getting late in the game and in order to bring a semblance of unity to her querulous party, the Prime Minister needs to wave a sabre in the EU’s general direction and remove some of the symbolism around the backstop.

This leaves us in that worst of all political binds, the dreaded zero-sum equation. Any victory for Theresa May – perceived or real – must come at the expense of Leo Varadkar.

At this juncture, I’m reminded of that superb nugget of political wisdom from the late David Ervine. In any successful negotiation, you must ensure the other person has the bus fare home.

The Prime Minister is content to let Leo walk.

The Taoiseach’s utter reasonableness throughout this tortuous and repetitive process – asking only that the British Government honours its existing commitments – has been priced-in by British ministers, who still struggle to imagine – let alone treat – Ireland as an equal.

The disrespect shown to the Irish Government is appalling – especially as culpability for the failure to conclude the Brexit process lies squarely in Downing Street. If Europe wobbles on the backstop, would Leo survive such a political reversal?

On Radio Four’s Today programme yesterday, Fianna Fail leader, Micheál Martin, stressed that Irish opposition parties are in lockstep with the government, treating their efforts as a bi-partisan national priority.

Unlike Theresa May, who needs eyes in the back of her head, there is a sense of joint purpose across Irish public life.

Perhaps the real question, then, is which prime minister will end up coming up short? If Leo prevails and there is no renegotiation and no scrapping of the backstop, the humiliation for Theresa May will be equivalent to Eden’s after Suez. As will her fate.

Of course, she has only herself to blame, having systematically underestimated both Varadkar and the prowess of Irish diplomats throughout these negotiations.

Through the disregarding eyes of many British Tories and their friends in the right-wing tabloids, Leo’s just another uppity Paddy. (Perhaps Theresa May should count herself lucky it’s not Charlie Haughey sat across the negotiating table?)

He’s gone from political ingenue, starstruck on his first visit to Downing Street, prattling on about Love Actually, to a diplomatic roadblock as British ministers see it. (A bête noire, or bête vert, perhaps?)

How should the Irish Government respond? During the tense next few days, they should continue to press the Commission to hold its nerve. Varadkar should make it quite clear that the hair-brained proposal articulated by Theresa May’s former chief of staff, Nick Timothy in today’s Daily Telegraph that would see Ireland leave the customs union and adopt Britain’s tariff regime is a total non-starter.

Given that Brexiteers constantly complain that remaining in the customs unions would see the UK become a ‘vassal state,’ why would a sovereign country like Ireland accept the same terms?

My bet is still that through a process of attrition, the numbers of Tory MPs opposing Theresa May’s deal will decrease. They always do this; talk tough and then relent. (‘Loyalty is the Tory’s secret weapon,’ as Lord Kilmuir, MacMillan’s Lord Chancellor, once put it).

The death cultists in the European Research Group will not budge, but their hangers-on will become fewer and fewer, folding their tents and coming down off the moral high ground.

Added together with Labour MPs who would vote for some sort of Brexit deal if they believed no deal was the only other option, and it’s possible to see the emergence of a theoretical parliamentary majority for a deal that includes the backstop.

Wiser Tory heads know they are in danger of paying a high domestic price for their woeful handling of the Brexit negotiations. A no deal Brexit will probably cause a recession, let alone trigger food and medicine shortages and unless they want to forfeit their reputation as the party of business and be long remembered for presiding over domestic chaos, they need a deal.

Anyway, Ireland is owed a bit of loyalty from the EU, having played ball, at considerable expense, by becoming the poster boy for the Troika’s austerity measures.

The likeliest outcome remains a British climbdown, of sorts. Leo and the Commission just need to hold their nerve.