Fresh from its role in the restoration of the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly, the Irish government is likely to undergo a reformation of its own, with an early general election being called for Saturday 8th February.

The Irish government is currently led by Leo Varadkar in a minority coalition made up of Fine Gael and nine independent TDs. Fine Gael has a confidence-and-supply agreement with the next largest party, Fianna Fáil, which was extended in 2018 to help maintain a stable government, in light of the uncertainty associated with Brexit and its potential implications on Ireland.

The Taoiseach had previously expressed his belief that the right time for an election was the summer, but this week he met with the President, Michael D. Higgins, to ask him to dissolve the 32nd Dáil, paving the way for an early general election.

 

Why hold an early election?

So why, with the government less than four years into a five year term, has an early election been called? With the UK’s departure from the European Union on 31st January all but set in stone, and a no-deal scenario off the table with the passing of the Withdrawal Agreement in the House of Commons, the need for continued cooperation between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is no longer as crucial.

The Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs, Simon Coveney, was heavily involved in working with the Northern Ireland parties on brokering a deal to restore the Executive and Assembly. There were reservations about risking the progress Coveney and his team had made alongside the UK Secretary of State, Julian Smith, in the event of Fine Gael losing the election and a new Minister being appointed. With Northern Ireland’s five main parties signing up to the ‘New Decade, New Approach’ deal last week, this stumbling block is no longer in the way.

The Irish government faces criticism of its handling of the health and housing crisis gripping the country, with Housing Minister, Eoghan Murphy, narrowly surviving a motion of no confidence in late 2019 and another to be called against Health Minister, Simon Harris, on 5th February. The government kicks off 2020 against a backdrop of stark statistics, with 760 people waiting on hospital trollies for beds and 10,000 people homeless.

Some prominent Fianna Fáil figures have been increasingly vocal in their criticism of the government and their desire for an election. It’s not hard to see why when looking at recent opinion polls. A Sunday Times poll showed party support level for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil both at 27% in December 2019, with Sinn Féin at 20%. This poll, however, doesn’t consider recent developments, such as the postponed Royal Irish Constabulary and Dublin Metropolitan Police commemorations or the successful restoration of the Executive and Assembly at Stormont, that may affect public opinion.

Leo Varadkar and Micheal Martin, leader of Fianna Fáil, met on 9th January to discuss Dáil numbers and legislative proposals which could be passed in the coming legislative session. The government’s issue is its lack of a majority, which has made passing legislation more and more difficult. Several Independent TDs also indicated their support can no longer be counted on in the upcoming confidence vote in the Health Minister, therefore increasing their reliance on Fianna Fáil.

 

Who are the main players?

The main parties (with current seats in brackets) and their leaders contesting the upcoming election will be:

  • Fine Gael (47): Leo Varadkar;
  • Fianna Fáil (45): Micheál Martin;
  • Sinn Féin (22): Mary Lou McDonald;
  • Labour (7): Brendan Howlin;
  • Green Party (3): Eamon Ryan;
  • Social Democrats (2): Catherine Murphy/Róisín Shortall.

There are also a number of Independent TDs and alliances who will contest the election, six of whom are currently part of the minority government alongside Fine Gael.

A party must win 79 seats if it is to form a majority government. Given the history of Irish governments, the likelihood of a coalition is high, while recent opinion polls indicate that neither Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil are likely to win a majority. This puts smaller parties in a stronger position as they may be kingmakers in allowing either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil to form a minority government.

Both of the two main parties have ruled out any post-election deals with Sinn Féin, despite the fact it sits in a strong third position with 20% party support in the recent Sunday Times poll. Mary Lou McDonald noted at Sinn Féin’s ard fheis her preference for a “left-led” government, which was viewed as a signal towards Fianna Fáil, given its centre-left leaning credentials. However, Martin and prominent Fianna Fáil TDs have ruled out such a coalition, although what is discussed in private and signalled publicly may differ.

 

What could this mean for Northern Ireland?

A number of the major parties contesting the election have links to parties in the North. Sinn Féin is an all island party, so any coalition government they were a part of could see the party wielding greater influence throughout the island of Ireland. At the very least, this would almost certainly see an all-Ireland forum on Irish unity being convened, which Sinn Féin have been demanding from the current Irish government for some time.

Fianna Fáil and the SDLP have been in partnership since February 2019, so, although relatively new and somewhat untested, this could allow the smaller party to leverage a direct link with the Irish government party and use this to its benefit, complementing their recent success in the 2019 Westminster election.

The Green Party also operate on an all-island basis. Given their recent surge in local (both north and south of the border) and European elections, and the public’s heightened awareness of the climate crisis, the potential for them to be part of any coalition government cannot be dismissed, which could see Ireland’s very own Green deal being pushed.

Any divergence from the status quo in the Irish government’s approach to Stormont under a Fianna Fáil and/or Sinn Féin government is likely to draw criticism from some unionists. The UK government faced questions over the rigorous impartiality it was required to apply regarding Northern Ireland during the tenure of the DUP’s confidence and supply arrangement with the Conservative party.

It’s highly unlikely, however, that any future Irish government would move to distance itself from Northern Ireland. If anything, with the conversation around Northern Ireland’s constitutional position continuing to gain traction, we could see other parties running candidates in future elections in the North.

For now, parties will be hitting the campaign trail in the coming days, with the Irish electorate most likely choosing between Leo and Micheál for Taoiseach, a Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil led government. Will voters end up with more of the same, or something radically different?