The defeat of the would-be European Donald Trump, Geert Wilders, in the Dutch general election in early March was cause for relief amongst European moderates, but they are wise to delay celebrations. The real crux for the continent will be the French Presidential elections; the Netherlands was a mere prelude. However, it is not just the chance of a President Le Pen which makes this election one like no other…

For the first time in the Fifth Republic’s almost 60-year history, the incumbent President is not seeking a second term. It is hard to imagine that Monsieur Hollande will be remembered for anything other than his unpopularity, exacerbated by high unemployment and high tensions following a barrage of horrific Islamist terrorist attacks on French soil.

No realistic outcome in these elections will preserve the status quo: Hollande was never in the race and it looks like the two main parties have ruled themselves out as well. Both the Parti Socialiste (Hollande’s party) and the right-wing les Républicains (Sarkozy’s party) are in circus-like states around official candidates whom neither party can wholeheartedly back.

The Socialists have chosen Benoît Hamon who, in Corbyn style, seems to be too far to the left for the party’s heavyweights. In any case Hamon isn’t the only viable option on the far left; the Jean-Luc Mélenchon is giving him a run for his money and looks set to emerge with more votes, signalling grave divisions for the French left. Meanwhile, the Republicans’ candidate François Fillon has stubbornly clung to his place amid corruption investigations and even flour-bombs.

The result is a rather odd situation where France’s main parties could foreseeably finish fourth and fifth in the overall race, leaving the ‘outsiders’ Emmanuel Macron (independent) and Marine Le Pen (Front National) as the frontrunners.

Being considered an outsider is about all Macron and Le Pen have in common; they represent diametrically opposed visions of France and what it means to be French.

While Marine has worked tirelessly and effectively to shrug off her father’s legacy, even shedding the Le Pen name from her campaign posters, her movement still bears the old traits. She is resolute in her disdain for globalisation and Europe, branding herself the ‘anti-Merkel’ and the EU a ‘dying star.’ Madame Le Pen has made leaving the euro a key economic policy and has promised a French referendum on EU membership, which raises the far-off but nonetheless possible prospect of “Frexit.” Le Pen’s vision is “France First” echoing her strongmen heroes, Trump and Putin, with whom she has murky links.

If Le Pen is the anti-Merkel then Macron is the anti-Le Pen; he has determinately occupied the vacant role of EU champion. The 39-year-old former investment banker and one-time economy minister under Hollande has managed to mould himself into something of a revolutionary (that’s right, an ex-banker revolutionary). He has risen to prominence thanks to his grassroots campaigning and promise of renewal and progress: a France en Marche. Macron’s language is inclusive, with emphasis on the importance of integration and openness to refugees.

Macron has demonstrated a knack for appealing to a broad range of political backgrounds; his campaign is made up of volunteers from both the traditional right and left. However, Macron’s challenge will be getting enough people on board who are willing to vote for a completely new movement, without any current parliamentary force.

Le Pen’s rebranding has also attracted support from disillusioned voters hailing from both the right and left. Most intriguingly, her movement has gathered considerable momentum amongst young voters, including university students and graduates, who are looking for radical solutions to end their economic woes and who are too young to recall the dark days of the Front National under Jean-Marie. However, many young people also see the far left as a radical solution and have thrown their support behind Mélenchon who, like Le Pen, is an opponent of the EU.

France is angry and wants change; the question is what sort of change? If the xenophobic right emerges victorious once more the defeat of Wilders in the Netherlands means nothing. France is central on the global stage, and at the heart of Europe; this is all-the-more the case given the UK’s imminent departure from the EU. If France turns inwards we can expect to see a drastically different landscape in Europe taking shape.