What should we make of the RTE, TG4 and Red Cexit poll from last week, specifically, its findings on Irish unity? Well, it seems the South is remarkably comfortable with the prospect, with nearly two-thirds of voters (65%) answering in the affirmative to the question:

‘If there was a referendum on a United Ireland tomorrow, would you vote yes in favour of a United Ireland, or no against a United Ireland?’

Less than a fifth (19%) said ‘No/Against’ with another 15% who ‘don’t know’ or refused to answer.  When undecided voters and those who don’t vote are excluded from the sample, the figures are even starker, with 77% backing unity and just 23% opposed. Pretty dramatic top line figures, but what do we find when we delve into the detail of the poll?

 

1. Age shall not wither it

“If you’re not a radical at twenty, you have no soul. If you’re not a conservative by 40, you have no sense,” the old saying goes. Well, a whopping 68% of 18-34-year-olds are in favour of Irish unity, but what’s surprising is that this high level of support remains consistent throughout the age groups. It dips for the 35-44 age cohort, dropping to 60%, (which is still pretty impressive) but lifts again to 66% for every age group after that, including over-65s, (who often tend to be the most conservative on ‘change’ issues). This indicates a level of granular support across the age groups, highlighting that, unlike Brexit, for example, the issue of Irish unity doesn’t divide southern voters on the basis of age. This makes it likely that the overall trend – strong support – is unlikely to waver over coming years.

 

2. Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus…and both back unity

In terms of the gender split, Irish unity is supported evenly between men (66%) and women (64%). Just over a fifth of men (22%) are opposed, but only 16% of women are. 12% of men ‘don’t know,’ but that figure rises to 19% of women. Could this signify that for those women voters who are not automatically enthused by the case for Irish unity, neither are they firmly against it either? Persuadable, perhaps, of its merits if it’s sold to them properly?

 

3. The middle classes are on-board

Perhaps the group in southern Irish society that might be thought to be the least welcoming of major constitutional change is the professional middle-class. Yet the figure for ABC1s shows 60% support unity and just 22% oppose it – a clear 3:1 margin. Support gets stronger ‘lower’ down the social strata (personally, I detest these classifications). But the point is that the poorer and more marginalised you are, the stronger you support Irish unity, with support in category ‘F’ rising to 78%. The classlessness of the appeal feels highly significant and, like the consistent support across the age demographic, it is evidence that support for Irish unity is widespread.

 

4. Geography matters

It seems the biggest oscillation in Irish public opinion comes down to geography. There’s stronger support in rural Ireland at 70%, dipping to 62% in urban settings. Take the variation between voters in Dublin – 55% of whom support unity – and the people of Munster – where the figure is 70%. In the rest of Leinster, support rises to 67%, while in Connaught and the three southern counties of Ulster, its 68%. Perhaps tellingly, the ‘don’t know/won’t say’ figure is highest in Dublin, at 22%. Could this account for higher levels of inward migration to the capital? Do these age-old constitutional questions confuse newcomers? Given Ireland’s high rate of immigration, might there be a lukewarm reaction to Irish unity from these groups when that referendum comes?

 

5. The Irish establishment needs to wake up

Given that Leo Varadkar has been noticeably reticent to start preparing southern voters for the strong possibility of a border poll in the next few years, he might not be too happy to learn that support among Fine Gael backers (66%) is second only to Sinn Féin’s (85%), with just 22% of his voters opposed to Irish unity. In contrast, the figures for Fianna Fail are 65% and 24%, respectively. High time those at the high table took notice?

 

6. It’s not all about the Shinners

No single political party can carry the weight of bringing about significant political change. It needs more broadly-based support. Ah, what about the Scottish National Party, I hear you cry. They brought about the 2014 Scottish independence referendum – and nearly won it – in the teeth of opposition from the other main establishment parties. Partly, that’s true, but it was the major transfer of traditional Labour supporters that bolstered the push for Scottish independence. The figures in this poll show the opposite is happening in Ireland. The strong support across all major parties means the Shinners are not carrying the whole weight of this issue. You don’t have to back Sinn Féin to vote for Irish unity when the opportunity arises. This is a major strength, showing support for change is deep in the marrow of Irish society and doesn’t need one party to mine it and mobilise it. Plus, it makes it unlikely that any of the main parties would now campaign against it.

 

7. Independent voters represent the centre-of-gravity on the issue

One of the curiosities of southern Irish politics for me is always the presence of a strong contingent of independent representatives (in contrast, 82% of voters in the UK backed either the Conservative or Labour parties in the 2017 general election). Clearly, there is a constituency in Irish society that says, “To Hell with the lot of them!” and votes local instead. So, what caught my eye was just how support among independent voters (68/18/14 – Yes/No/Dunno) so closely mirrors the top-line findings of the poll (65/19/15). Even contrarian independents are on-board.

 

8. The Greens are least enthusiastic

There’s clearly been some transfer of support from Sinn Féin to the Greens in these local and European elections, with that soft part of Sinn Féin’s vote – anti-political, socially-aware, casually radical, urban hipster-types with their reusable coffee cups (sorry, I summarise) – leaching across to the Greens. Yet of all the main Irish parties, the Greens are the least, well, green. Just 54% of respondents who vote for the party back unity, with a fifth (21%) opposing it and just over a quarter (26%) who don’t know/ won’t say. Support for green parties tends to ebb and flow, so they may find that the price of their relative indifference on the constitutional question sees many of their new-found soft-republican supporters drifting away again (a bit like an Arctic ice sheet, I guess).

 

9. There’s always one…or five

‘There’s nowt so queer as folk,’ as we say in Lancashire. But just who exactly are the 5% of Sinn Féin voters – one in 20 – who say they oppose Irish unity? Or, for that matter, the other 10% who won’t say/don’t know? I mean, it’s obvious what Sinn Féin stands for, isn’t it? So, to what must we attribute these strange, counter-intuitive responses? Margin of error? Fifth columnists? Just-saying-it-for-the –craic? Polls don’t have a sense of humour, but some voters clearly do.

 

10. In the South, there’s incredible unity around Irish unity

Remember, as all pollsters stress, this is merely a snapshot of opinion at a moment in time. The only thing that stays constant is that people are wont to change their minds. But the remarkable thing here is that in all categories – age, class, geography, gender and political allegiance – there is strong, granular support for Irish unity. It’s an issue that doesn’t divide southern voters in a significant way, with no real constituency of opinion opposed to the idea. Structurally, the issue is in rude health and there is an enormous amount here for campaigners to build on.