Julia FlanaganWhen Donald Trump first emerged onto the political scene in 2015 with a pledge to “Make America Great Again”, few believed his divisive message and vision for America would resonate too far beyond the gold mirrored walls of Trump Tower.
Now, the outsider is the White House incumbent and is fighting for four more years in an historic and frequently chaotic election.
Often his own worst political enemy – a bull in a proverbial china shop, sabotaging his own achievements – the beginning of the final year of his first term was by many indicators a positive one. Stronger than usual approval ratings; an economy that any president could boast about going into an election year; and no clear front runner in the Democratic primaries, suggested that a second term was within reach.
But Covid-19 changed everything. The emergence of “the invisible enemy” – a term Trump often uses to excuse him from any responsibility for its consequences – has resulted in an economic crisis with record unemployment and effectively kicked the stool of a strong economy out from under his re-election messaging.
Not wanting his political ambitions to be defeated by the virus, Trump has gone out of his way to undermine the messaging of his own health experts – even after contracting the virus himself – by holding large political rallies and repeatedly flouting his own administration’s public health guidelines.
A recent FiveThirtyEight poll shows that 57.2% of Americans polled disapprove of his response to the virus, but more seriously, an academic study on Friday linked a series of Trump rallies during the summer to more than 700 Covid deaths.
The Covid pandemic and Donald Trump’s response to it have inadvertently forced the spotlight off his opponent – former Vice-President Joe Biden – in a way that no ordinary election year would allow. Biden’s weakness in the pre-pandemic Democratic primaries may ultimately prove to be his strengths in the general election.
Rambling speeches that meander down memory lane have been far removed from the seismic changes that progressives within his party want to see, but 2020 might be the election where exhausted voters simply yearn for a return to something approaching normalcy. Will America vote to “Make America Great Again” or will it vote for four more years of Trump?
Here’s what to look out for on election night.
Record Turnout
The US has already recorded record turnout in mail in and in-person early voting. More than 92 million ballots have already been cast which represents about 67% of the more than 136.5 million ballots cast in the 2016 presidential election.
As of Friday, Texas and Hawaii had surpassed their total turnout for 2016. Key swing states – like North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida – which could determine the outcome of the election have already crossed their halfway mark for the total ballots cast in 2016. Competitive states such as Arizona, Georgia and Nebraska have also crossed this halfway point.
It’s too early to know how this will translate into the dynamics of Election Day itself, with many voters voting early to avoid crowding at the polls in the middle of a pandemic, but many more still determined to show up on the day itself. Despite so many obstacles, the enthusiasm and motivation across America has produced some groundbreaking turnout numbers.
When will we know the result?
Americans – and those of us watching around the world – have become accustomed to knowing the apparent outcome of an election within hours of the polls closing. News organizations traditionally use expert projections to “call” the results, heightening the drama of what is, after all, a TV show.
Yet in this extraordinary election year with so many voters opting to vote by mail, we will likely not know the actual result on election night. It could take days or possibly weeks for every vote to be tallied.
States – even some of the counties that make up a state – have different rules on when election officials can begin processing the postal votes.
The initial results on election night may even appear misleading. Traditionally Democrats overwhelmingly vote by mail, while Republicans prefer to vote in person. While Republicans may initially appear to be in the lead, the result may be different once all postal ballots are factored in.
Watch out for swing states such as Florida, North Carolina and Arizona, who are likely to share their results more quickly. Both the Trump and Biden campaigns have invested serious time and money in each of them and early results on the night could indicate the direction of the election.
President Trump has already made his view on the matter clear, tweeting that a result must be declared on election night and even warning, preposterously, that if he “appears ahead” on the night he will declare victory. He has also consistently made baseless claims about widespread fraud and discrepancies with mail-in voting across the country.
Uncertainty around the final result, therefore, coupled with Trump’s claims of distrust in the process and the ominous mobilization of his supporters, run the risk of stoking chaos on election day and beyond.
A side of patience with your coffee will be required on election night and in the days that follow.
The Road to 270
The US election system requires a candidate to win at least 270 Electoral College votes to secure the White House.
Former Vice-President Joe Biden is competitive in all of the battleground states that Trump carried in 2016. And has put a handful of traditional Republican states, including Georgia and Arizona, in play.
Biden can build an electoral majority simply by carrying the three midwestern states where Trump stunned Hillary Clinton in 2016, flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Trump’s path to victory this time is a tougher task.
Pennsylvania – Biden’s birth state – is fast becoming a must-win for both candidates. If Biden loses here, states such as North Carolina and Arizona – where Trump won in 2016 – are possible alternatives, both now polling competitively for Biden.
And who could forget Florida? A state that is exceedingly close in every election, is currently a toss-up between the candidates. But it is a must-win for Trump if he is to have a clear path to 270.
Biden is already seeing substantial gains with several key demographics who carried Trump in 2016. Suburban women and seniors who voted in large numbers for Trump have been turned off by his rhetoric and response to the Coronavirus. Elderly voters who make up big populations in Florida and Arizona could be key to Biden’s competitiveness there, while suburban women voters demonstrated their disapproval for Trump in the 2018 midterms and look likely to come out heavily for Biden.
What if there’s a tie?
This is 2020 after all.
It is entirely possible that there could be an election result that reflects this strange and unpredictable year.
If the candidates tie 269-269 in the Electoral College or if neither candidate wins a majority of the 538 electoral votes, the election for President is decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. A majority of states (26) is needed to win.
Senators would elect the Vice-President, with each Senator having a vote. A majority of Senators (51) is needed to win. Known as a contingent election, these have occurred only three times in US election history – 1801, 1825, 1837.
Who’ll control the Senate?
While attention will be focused on the presidential contest, the battle for the US Senate is set to be equally dramatic and just as consequential.
While Democrats expect to keep control of the House of Representatives, they are in a tough, but not impossible task to reclaim control of the upper chamber. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats, or three in addition to winning the presidential election, to take control of the Senate, with the Vice-President casting tie-breaking votes.
Currently the Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, but with 35 seats up for re-election it could come down to seven strongly-contested races to determine the outcome.
No one knows better than Joe Biden how important a Senate majority is for a president’s legislative agenda. As President Obama’s Vice-President, Biden saw first-hand how a Republican-controlled Senate obstructed Obama’s ability to achieve many of his legislative goals during his second term.
Infamously, it was the Republican-controlled Senate under Sen Mitch McConnell that blocked hearings for Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland, and the recent battle to confirm a successor to the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat on the court only served to remind Americans of the power and the political importance of the Senate.
For the Democrats, Senate races in Colorado, Maine and North Carolina look particularly promising, with their candidates performing well in polls for several months now.
It is very likely that in Arizona, Democratic candidate and former NASA astronaut Mark Kelly will unseat Republican Martha McSally, in a battle for the seat long held by the late Senator John McCain. McSally has struggled in recent weeks to both disavow and offer her support for the President, in an attempt to appease all sides.
Races in Georgia, Montana, and Iowa also look very competitive. For Republican aspirations, two states hold the key: Alabama and Michigan.
Even in South Carolina – a long-time Republican stronghold – the sitting Senator Lindsey Graham faces an unexpected challenge from Jaime Harrison. Graham’s evolution from vocal Trump critic in 2016 to Trump mouthpiece in 2020 has not impressed many small c conservatives in South Carolina, while Harrison’s recent record-breaking fundraising totals have left Graham pleading with voters for cash.
The outcome of these Senate elections will have significant consequences, and if control were to change hands it would determine whether an incoming Biden/Harris administration can make progress with its legislative agenda. Alternatively, if the Senate flips and Donald Trump retains the White House, the relationship between legislature and executive would likely become more fraught even than we saw during the impeachment proceedings earlier this year.
And it will only be two more years until the next midterms.
Here is FiveThirtyEight’s state-by-state guide to when polls close across the country and when to expect results.
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Here are some other Northern Slant articles on the election campaign:
Decisions Are Made By Those Who Turn Up
Northern Slant Hosts The US and us Online Discussion
Supreme Court Fight Set To Dominate Election’s Conclusion
Campaigning for Change From Your Couch
‘Celtic’ Biden’s Call to Irish-America
