Where next for Brexit?

So, two years after Britain triggered Article 50 following the June 2016 referendum, we’re into the month when we’re supposed to actually leave.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this week Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she is delaying the meaningful vote on Brexit until the 12th of March at the latest, which probably means that it’s going to happen on the 12th of March, just 17 days before the day the UK has set to leave the EU – with a deal or without. This is the first time the Prime Minister has pledged to give MPs a binding vote on delaying Brexit if her deal is rejected.

If this meaningful vote passes, MPs would have to move on to pass the accompanying legislation by 29 March. The difficulty of this task have made many believe that an extension to the Brexit date is necessary, with the EU’s Donald Tusk describing an extension as a “rational solution” at an EU-Arab League summit in Egypt this past week. EU sources revealed that any extension would ideally be a long one to replace the transition period and full develop plans for the future UK-EU relationship and deal with that pesky Irish border issue. The EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier has also stated that a Brexit delay is “unavoidable” in order to “carry out the procedure” of Brexit.

Meanwhile, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said he now backs a second referendum, stating his party is committed to “putting forward or supporting an amendment in favor of a public vote to prevent a damaging Tory Brexit being forced on the country.” The past week has been another tough one for the Labour party, with Labour MP and Corbyn ally Chris Williamson being suspended from Labour after claiming that the party has been “too apologetic” over antisemitism allegations. This happened just a week after nine Labour MPs quit the party, citing antisemitism as one of the main reasons for their decision. The Jewish Labour Movement (JLM) has described how they have found it “deeply” troubling that they did not hear from the Labour Party Leadership after these resignations. JLM is set to vote on whether to continue its 99-year association with the Labour party on 6 March.

Speaking of resigning MPs, on Friday George Eustice became the 14th MP to quit the government over Brexit. A longtime Brexiteer and former UKIP MEP candidate before joining the Conservative party, Mr Eustice has left the government over the possibility of the Article 50 process being extended. Over at The Independent Group, meanwhile, the group of 11 defecting MPs assigned themselves organisational roles or policy responsibilities, with Chuka Umunna being named group spokesman. Although TIG is not a political party and there are no immediate plans to appoint a leader, Umunna has expressed his desire to “play the biggest role” in the group

 

Trump, Kim and  Cohen

The past week hasn’t been the easiest for US President Donald Trump and next week doesn’t look much smoother.

On Wednesday Trump began a two-day meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi, Vietnam. This was the second meeting between the two leaders, with the previous summit in Singapore ending in a “firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula”. However less than six months later US intelligence officials stated that North Korea is “unlikely to give up” its nuclear weapons.

Despite Trump walking out of the Singapore summit talking about he and the North Korean dictator “fell in love”, it appears that this love affair has turned sour as talks between the two sides collapsed. Like a lot of messy break-ups, those involved are offering conflicting accounts of who is to blame, with Trump announcing that, “Sometimes you have to walk” as “basically they wanted the sanctions lifted their entirety, but we couldn’t do that. We’ve all been there, Donald.

However in a classic “he said, he said” set-up, North Korea’s foreign minister, Ri Yong-ho, countered Trump’s reasons for the collapse of negotiations. North Korea has claimed that they only proposed the partial removal of sanctions, seeking relief from 5 UN sanctions – out of a total of 11 – that hurt the country’s economy, in exchange for disabling its main nuclear complex. Mr Trump and senior US diplomats have said they hope negotiations will continue, although nothing has been scheduled. Maybe they just need some alone time so the US can focus on the other diplomatic effort they’re currently engaged in – ending its nearly 18-year war in Afghanistan.

Unfortunately for Mr Trump, a breakdown in negotiations with a dictator with access to nuclear weapons wasn’t the only issue he had to deal with in this past week.

His former lawyer Michael Cohen testified publicly against him for the first time in public on Wednesday of this past week, calling the President “a con man,” “a cheat” and “a racist”. Cohen’s testimony painted a harsh portrait of Donald Trump, accusing him of lying to the public about business interests in Russia, of lying to reporters about stolen Democratic emails, and of telling Mr. Cohen to lie about hush payments to cover up sexual misconduct. Although the testimony did not provide any proof that Trump or his campaign colluded with Russia, Cohen stated that “Mr. Trump knew of and directed the Trump Moscow negotiations throughout the campaign and lied about it”.

Republicans denounced Mr Cohen as a “disgraced felon”, with Trump allies in the GOP asking the Justice Department to investigate Trump’s former lawyer for perjury, accusing him of making intentional false statements during his public testimony. Meanwhile Trump took to Twitter to attack Cohen and his testimony.

The president ended the week by giving his longest – and arguably his most disjointed – speech in office so far to the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Committee) Conference, while Michael Cohen will be back on Capitol Hill for further testimony, this time behind closed doors, on Wednesday.

 

 

India-Pakistan on edge

On Tuesday, India launched airstrikes in Pakistan in retaliation for a suicide attack in the disputed region of Kashmir. India blamed Pakistan for the  attack, escalating tensions between the two nuclear powers who have previously fought two wars over the Muslim-majority territory of Kashmir. Pakistan reacted by conducting airstrikes over the ceasefire line in Kashmir, downing two Indian fighter jets and capturing a pilot.

The violence comes as Indians prepare to head to the polls in May, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is up for re-election, is eager to present himself as a strongman against Pakistan. However, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan has been keen to show that he can stand up to Modi, and so he announced that the captured Indian fighter pilot, Abhinandan Barthaman, would be released as a “peace gesture”. Abhinandan was returned safely to cheering crowds on the Indian side of the border, although his capture is being seen as a major setback for India.

Imran Khan, former international cricket star turned Prime Minister of Pakistan, has also offered to engage in direct talks with Indian Prime Minister Modi in order to defuse the crisis in Kashmir. Although Khan has stated that Pakistan is focused on de-escalation, he has been accused by Indian officials of engaging in publicity stunts in order to ignore the real problems between the two countries, stating that there is no chance to “go back to zero” and ease tensions unless Pakistan acted against terrorist groups present in the country. Both India and Pakistan have said that they are not looking for war.

 

Bibi under pressure

The Israeli Prime Minister has been in the news again this past week as the Israeli attorney general, Avichai Mandelblit, has announced his intention to indict Benjamin Netanyahu on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in connection with three cases known as 1,000, 2,0000 and 4,000, pending a final hearing. These three cases are separate, but interconnected, relating to concerns surrounding Netanyahu’s relationship with businessmen and Israeli media groups. It is suspected that the Israeli Prime Minister has accepted illicit gifts – including cigars, jewellery and pink champagne – in exchange for political favours and preferential treatment.

The Israeli Prime Minister has been plagued by accusations of corruption for the past three years. If the case proceeds Netanyahu would be the first sitting Prime Minister to be indicted.

The attorney general’s announcement came just 40 days before Netanyahu is to stand for national elections in Israel, with several figures in Israeli politics now calling on the Prime Minister to resign. These figures include Benny Gantz, the founder of a new party with fellow centrist Yair Lapid called Blue and White, which has climbed rapidly in the polls to become a serious contender against Netanyahu’s Lukid party. Gantz has stated that Blue and White would not sit in a Netanyahu government. However Gantz is also facing challenges to his virtuous image, as he is currently being sued by a family in Gaza in a Dutch court and was accused last week of sexual misconduct while in high school. Gantz has denied the allegations of sexual misconduct, saying that they were political libel and hinting that they were initiated by Netanyahu’s Likud party.  

While there are hints that Netanyahu could be losing support from voters, his right-wing allies appear to be sticking with him in the run up to election day on the 9th of April. Having become the leader of the Likud party in 1993 and Israeli’s youngest-ever Prime Minister in 1996, Israeli’s are now beginning to image the prospect of future Israeli politics without Bibi at the forefront.

 

Political Scandal in Canada, eh..?

Yes, you read that right, I said Canada.

The golden boy of North American politics, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, is facing the first major political scandal of his administration. Trudeau has been accused of pressuring his former attorney general, Jody Wilson-Raybould, to prevent the prosecution of a large Canadian engineering firm over accusations of fraud and bribery.

Wilson-Raybould, the first indigenous minister of justice and attorney general in Canadian history, has accused the Canadian Prime Minister’s closest aides of improperly pressuring and ‘hounding’ her in order to prevent the prosecution of SNC-Lavalin. SNC-Lavalin, a multinational engineering company based in Montreal, is accused of paying 48 million Canadian dollars in bribes to officials in Libya between 2001 and 2011, when Muammar Gaddafi was in power. A criminal conviction would bar the company from working for the government of Canada for 10 years, which many fear would harm SNC-Lavalin  and its 52,000 employees worldwide financially.

On 12 February Wilson-Raybould resigned suddenly from Cabinet, although she remains a Liberal member of Parliament. On 18 February Trudeau’s top aide Gerald Butts announced that he was resigning over claims that the government tried to interfere in this criminal court case. The Canadian opposition leader, Andrew Scheer, is now calling on Trudeau to resign, claiming that he has “lost moral authority to govern”. Trudeau notably campaigned on a message of openness, decency and liberalism, promising a fresh approach to politics. This current political scandal is making both the Prime Minister and his Liberal party look vulnerable in the run up to October’s federal election, in which he would have otherwise have been the frontrunner.

 

Finally, while we have your attention, Northern Slant will be hosting a discussion at the Imagine Belfast festival later this month looking at “Politics Beyond Politicians”. It would be great if you could join us. Details of the panel and ticket information is here: