Talks between the UK government and the EU do not appear to be going well. After the UK left as a member state in January, it has been negotiating a new trade agreement with the EU to come into effect by the beginning of next year. But, as things stand, a deal by the end of the year looks highly optimistic.

Some Northern Ireland MPs recently advocated for an extension to the Brexit transition period. Indeed, a majority of MLAs in the Assembly called on the UK government to pursue an extension back in June. They argued that this would avoid the economic shock from a ‘no deal’ scenario at the end of the year, particularly when Covid-19 is already inflicting so much harm to the economy.

It’s worth pausing to take stock of where we are.

Well, for one thing, we need to accept the fact that Brexit has already happened. It is also now inevitable that the transition period comes to an end on 31 December – the UK had until 1 July to request an extension (not many people may have even realised this), but it did not make one. Regardless of what we think about Brexit, and regardless of what we think of the UK government, we must be honest about what is coming.

Let’s not kid ourselves: we face a massive uphill task, with a Coronavirus recession already underway. By the end of the year we could potentially have millions more unemployed across the UK and needing support via the welfare system. Public borrowing hit a record of £128 billion between April and June, and it is likely to grow further. 

Few saw the current pandemic coming, but the same cannot be said for Brexit. We know the end of the transition period is coming, meaning the UK leaves the single market and customs union completely – arrangements designed to strengthen trade between EU members by eliminating checks and tariffs (taxes on imports). 

We also know that the government is eager to ‘get Brexit done’, once and for all. So let’s just face the music for now and shift our attention to overcoming any challenges. There will be opportunities to re-seek membership of the European Union, for those of us who would prefer such a scenario, but at this moment the best thing for us is to reduce the worst effects of Brexit, work together, and move forward to the next political battle.

Rather than pretend that Brexit won’t happen or that the transition period will somehow be extended, the priority must instead be to reach a trade deal that will encourage economic growth. The impact of the alternative – no deal – would be catastrophic. 30% of our food currently comes from the EU, and it is likely that some foods, such as fresh vegetables and fruit, will become scarcer and more expensive in the event of no deal. Furthermore, electricity, fuel and gas prices may go up, with an already hard-hit travel industry likely to be hit even further.

For pro-Europeans, there will never be a ‘good time’ for Brexit. There is never a perfect time to exit a mammoth organisation such as the European Union, and it was never going to be an easy task. Furthermore, many of us still expect that it will do economic harm, even with a trade agreement.

In this respect, given the economic effects of the pandemic, it will be better to deal with these effects sooner rather than later. Brexit may be taking place in the middle of a recession, but that also means that any economic crisis may be contained occur over a shorter period of time, compared to an alternative scenario in which the transition period were extended. 

Once both issues have passed us by, our politics and our economy will finally be able to move on too.