Are dissident republicans changing tactics and organising behind a single terror movement to counter the threat of infiltration by the security forces? John Coulter reflects on changes within the dissident terror strategy as Brexit looms, and especially the threat posed by the New IRA. Follow John on Twitter  @JohnAHCoulter.

The recent BBC Spotlight programme detailing how the British intelligence network infiltrated the Provisional IRA has sparked an interesting debate when the ongoing Brexit debacle is added to the political equation. Could these same intelligence methods be used to combat any threat posed by dissident republicans in the event of a ‘no deal’ and subsequent hard border?

The Spotlight programme placed very clear emphasis on the specific role of British intelligence and its network of informers in undermining the Provisional IRA’s operations, especially in East Tyrone.

In a previously published article I examined developments within the dissident republican terror strategy. Since the emergence of the dissident republican movement dating from the Provisional IRA ceasefire of 1994, those dissidents have tried to thwart infiltration by the security forces by setting up separate organisations in the same way as the Provisional IRA tried to combat such infiltration by having small autonomous Active Service Units (ASUs) of around four members per ASU.

However, as someone who has been reporting on Irish affairs since 1978, I have long held the suspicion that one reason for the development of the dissident republican movement has been that the Provisional IRA has not been able to keep full control of its members, thus preventing key personnel from defecting to dissident groups.

In 2012, in my role as Northern Political Columnist with the Irish Daily Star, I conducted an interview with the New IRA – then one of a number of dissident republican factions. It was then my distinct impression that the dissident republican movement was organised into a number of separate groups to try and avoid infiltration by the British and Irish security forces in the same way the intelligence community had penetrated both the Provisional IRA and the INLA.

I have included the full text of that interview as submitted to my news editor at the Irish Daily Star. Bearing this 2012 interview in mind, it is now my conclusion that the New IRA is emerging as not just the most dangerous of the dissident republican factions, but will become the main – and only – vehicle for violent dissident republicanism in a post-Brexit Ireland.

 

 Actions speak louder than words – that’s the blunt message coming from a source close to the leadership of the New IRA.

Dissident republicans should have carried out a major attack first before announcing an amalgamation of some of their terror factions, the well-placed source close to the leadership of the New IRA told the Star last night.

Speaking exclusively to the Star at a location in County Antrim, the source emphasised the delay in publicly announcing the amalgamation was “because of personality clashes within the various groups which have now been resolved.”

Earlier this summer, three of the factions which comprise the broad dissident republican movement announced they were coming under a central command.

These were the Real IRA – which carried out the 1998 Omagh bomb massacre; the mainly Derry-based vigilante group, Republican Action Against Drugs (RAAD), and a group of independent dissident terrorists, thought to be experienced ex-Provos. 

However, two dissident groups remained outside the new central command – Oglaigh na hEireann (ONH) and the Continuity IRA. 

The policy of forming an umbrella organisation actually ran contrary to previous interviews for the Star in which some of the various dissident groups stressed they wanted to remain separate of each other to avoid infiltration by spies and informers. 

While the PSNI has consistently warned of the danger still posed by the republican dissident terror factions, there was no statement of panic from the police leadership reacting to the news of the amalgamation. 

The Star’s source, close to the leadership of the New IRA, reacting to the supposedly lukewarm PSNI response, said: “The various factions were working together anyway, and the announcement was regarded simply as a bit of a PR stunt.

“It did not impress the memberships on the ground who felt they should have acted up first, done something together, and then announced the amalgamation.”

In an earlier Star exclusive, a source close to the leadership of RAAD has emphasised how that group had already been working in collaboration with the Real IRA. 

At that time, that RAAD source added: “RAAD did collaborate with the Real IRA for a time, but RAAD members didn’t like being told what to do, with Real IRA people who were less experienced.”

This was an indication of the personality clashes which had been unveiled by the Star’s source close to the New IRA leadership.

He added: “There was a wee bit of personality clash that kept the factions apart. These clashes have now been resolved out of necessity.

“But there is still a body of opinion which believes that the groups should remain splintered. And there are some who believe that the coming together is good. But all it takes is one big tout and the whole thing is gone.”

The source said ONH had been most emphatic about staying separate from the New IRA. The problem was that the new IRA group wanted to call itself Oglaigh na hEireann, but that name was already taken by this faction, he said. 

“Given this new game they are playing, they didn’t want to make the same mistakes as the Provisionals. They have learned from these mistakes and there are wiser heads running this central command. 

 “However, there is still a body of opinion which believes the case now is that it is too centralised. But a combined group needs to produce something to make headway.

“But the big point is there already is a loose association and co-operation among the groups so there was really no need to announce a central command. 

 “Oglaigh na hEireann and the Continuity IRA were always refusing to be part of this co-operation in the early stages, but there is now more co-operation as their individual campaigns have not come to very much. 

“But it does not get around the core issue in that the new combined group should have produced the goods first, then an announcement if they are to be taken seriously. 

 “Making an announcement without having first done something makes them look foolish. That’s the sort of stuff that happened the Stickies – making announcements but never following them up,” said the source close to the New IRA.”

 

In short, co-operation will likely lead to merger under the banner of the New IRA, with the current Irish border being the main focus of a future New IRA terror campaign in a post-Brexit Ireland.

Like the Provisional IRA and INLA during the conflict, the New IRA will attempt to extend the terror campaign away from the border to as many part of Northern Ireland as possible rather than just trying to create so-called ‘liberated zones’.

Talk of Brexit sparking violence has been kicking around for over three years, so when we hear warnings of the Troubles resuming in Ireland, it can be easy to dismiss such statements as political point-scoring or electoral sabre-rattling.

However, North Down MP Lady Sylvia Hermon – the widow of a former RUC Chief Constable – can certainly never be branded as a hardliner who shoots from the lip.

Speaking in the House of Commons, Lady Herman issued a stark warning that Brexit could see an increase in dissident republican activity, which, in turn, could spark retaliation from loyalists.

Lady Herman’s warning should be taken seriously and, as an all-island community, we should not downplay the clear threat that exists.

Likewise, our all-island community must focus its thoughts on the importance of preserving peace rather than dwelling on the impression that a return to violence is inevitable.

For a start, the nationalist community must firmly reject political parties linked to, or supportive of, dissident republican terror groups – especially the New IRA.

There should also be a mindset developed across the entire community that the concept of ‘no go areas’ for the security forces as witnessed in the Troubles should never be repeated.

While a border campaign by dissident republican terrorists would be the obvious threat in the event of a ‘no-deal Brexit’, close cooperation between the PSNI an Gardaí will leave potential dissident terrorists with nowhere to run.

Ultimately, cross-community support for the security forces will be the key element in preventing any terrorist threat – either by republicans or loyalists – seeking to take advantage of Brexit.