In a prime-time ceremony broadcast live from the East Room of the White House on Monday evening, President Donald Trump announced his latest nominee for the US Supreme Court.

Like the self-aggrandizing reality TV star he is, it was a classic Trump moment; an announcement built up over days of suspense like an upcoming final episode of The Apprentice. As well as a hugely significant moment for American jurisprudence this was a golden opportunity for Trump, which arose when Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, often the court’s swing vote, gave notice last month of his intention to retire. Trump’s choice to replace Justice Kennedy is Brett Kavanaugh, a conservative judge from the second most powerful court in America, the Court of Appeals for the District of Colombia.

The announcement of a conservative nominee was hardly a surprise, but for a President who ran on a campaign promise to “drain the swamp”, Kavanaugh is seen as very much a creature of the swamp. A well-known figure within the ranks of the Washington DC establishment, he was a member of the legal team that investigated Bill Clinton and served for 5 years as a White House lawyer for President George W. Bush. Nonetheless it was a determined choice by Trump who praised Kavanaugh’s “impeccable credentials, unsurpassed qualifications and a proven commitment to equal justice under the law”.

Unsurprisingly, Democrats have come out swinging and are mobilising to contest the nomination as best they are able, with Republicans angling to complete the confirmation process quickly.

 

Political pick

The opportunity to nominate a Supreme Court judge is one that doesn’t come often for presidents. Unusually, Trump – just halfway through his first term in office – has already had a chance to nominate two justices, after Neil Gorsuch’s appointment followed a campaign by Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell to hold over the position on the death of Antonin Scalia.

In this election year, with less than five months until the mid-terms, the president is sending a clear message with this pick to his already loyal base and the broader community of Republicans that he is upholding their interests and political positions. As the ultimate arbiter on laws and disputes between the federal government and states, the Supreme Court rules on issues such as the death penalty, abortion, voting rights and immigration. The nomination of a Supreme Court Justice is an appointment for life and at 53 years old, Kavanaugh, if confirmed, will be in a powerful position to shape the social and political landscape in America for a generation.

What does he stand for?

A strict defender and interpreter of the U.S Constitution, the decision to nominate Kavanaugh could have far-reaching implications for the US on a range of issues. While he has not expressed his outright opposition to Roe v Wade – the 1973 Supreme Court ruling that legalised abortion nationwide – in previous rulings Kavanaugh has hinted at his position as a pro-life conservative. While reaffirming that Roe v Wade is the law of the land and that he will continue to follow the law, it is highly likely that if an opportunity arose for the Supreme Court to overturn the decision, his vote could easily swing the court’s decision to change the law.

Kavanaugh is pro-second amendment – the right for Americans to bear arms – and in a year where the gun control debate has intensified his positions will raise significant opposition. He has in previous rulings ruled that a ban on semi-automatic rifles would be unconstitutional. On environmental issues he has issued rulings against Obama-era regulations, including efforts to curb industrial pollution and greenhouse gases.

Kavanaugh has also ruled in favour of broadening executive authority, giving presidents more power. He has also objected to a president being the subject of criminal investigations and civil suits, which is significant as Trump obviously faces an ongoing investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller into his campaign ties to Russia during the 2016 election. This must have been appealing to Trump during the selection process.

What does it mean for the Democrats?

While the decision to nominate Kavanugh has boosted Trump and excited Republicans, it has left the Democrats feeling cold, particularly in this election year.

As it is the responsibility of the Senate to confirm a Supreme Court nominee, Democrats will have to think strategically about how they balance their vote in a confirmation hearing with their own re-election campaigns. A number of Senate Democrats are running in strongly Republican states like North Dakota, West Virginia, Indiana and Missouri, and they will be under deep pressure from conservative groups to support Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Nationally, the Democratic base will be just as keen for candidates to be vocal in their opposition.

If Democrats are citing issues like abortion to rally their liberal bases into opposing Kavanaugh, they run the risk of hurting Democrats seeking re-election in pro-life red states. With the Republicans narrowly controlling the Senate by 51-49, this now leaves Democrats caught between a rock and a hard place.

The opportunity to nominate Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court at this particular time is a huge win for President Trump. It helps reaffirm his commitment to his supporters, but crucially it could also win over Republicans who may be less thrilled by his day-to-day style of governance.

Despite rumours that the Trump team might have negotiated Justice Kennedy’s retirement to open a space on the court, should Kavanaugh end up filling his shoes, it will have been a bold and strategic move that will pay off well for Trump later this year, for the remainder of his administration, and – for conservatives – well into the future.