On 6 November Americans will go to the polls in what is being billed by some commentators as the most consequential set of mid-term elections for decades. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, along with 35 Senate seats. How are the contests shaping up, and what is really at stake when U.S voters cast their ballots in a few months’ time?

 

History tells us that the president’s party usually loses seats during mid-terms, as voters take the opportunity to pass judgement on their record in office. For example, President Obama’s approval rating stood at 45% before the 2010 mid-terms, and the Democrats suffered historic losses at the polls. They will be hoping the shoe is on the other foot this time round, taking encouragement from the fact that President Trump’s approval rating is even lower than Obama’s in 2010 – standing historically low at around 40%.

 

The Democrats need to win 23 seats to take over the House of Representatives, and with some ballot polling showing a 10-point lead in their favour, many commentators are expecting a Democrat majority in the House.

 

The question of what this might mean for the Trump administration is an interesting one. Impeachment is inevitably raised during these conversations, but while Democrats might be tempted to push forward articles of impeachment, this is a futile exercise unless the Senate is prepared to vote in favour, which the arithmetic suggests is unlikely. Republicans currently hold a Senate majority, and the Democrats would need to flip two seats to win control. While this sounds achievable in principle, there are only 35 seats up for the grabs, just six of which are Republican. The nature of the races means it’s more likely that Republicans will gain seats than lose them.

 

The Democrats are therefore unlikely to focus their attention on impeachment even if they take control of the House, and will instead use their new position to thwart the President’s legislative programme (those terms being used in the loosest sense possible). This would help to limit Trump to rule by Executive Order, which significantly curtails what he is able to do.

 

However, it’s important to remember that in this situation, Trump would still have quite a bit of latitude in the arena of foreign policy, and there may be a danger that the erratic President – forever seeking to grab media headlines – may act out even more abroad because the Democrats are stifling his efforts to ‘win’ at home.

 

No matter who controls Congress, Trump also maintains the power to make judicial nominations, and this is arguably the area where he can do the most damage and where the impact of his presidency will continue to be felt for years, if not decades, after he has gone. Trump has already secured one nominee to the Supreme Court and confirmation hearings for a second started earlier last week. If the nomination of Judge Kavanagh is approved, which looks more likely than not, this will create a conservative majority on the bench, with far reaching consequences for a number of policy areas that liberals care about.

 

So, the take-home message is a mixed one. Democrats have a real shot at taking back control of one of the Houses of Congress, but any hopes that this will spark a series of events that sees Trump either kicked out of office or prevented from doing any more damage to America and the rest of the world is, unfortunately, wishful thinking.