“Britain’s maritime future will be at least as glorious as its maritime past,” were the determined words of UK Shipping Minister, John Hayes, at September’s London International Shipping Week (LISW). His optimism was echoed by Secretary of State for International Trade, Liam Fox, who vowed that, “just as shipping supports the UK economy, so we will support your [shipping] industry.”

Following the panic that has seethed through many of the UK’s trade institutions following the Brexit vote, the spectrum of speculation in the shipping industry is unrivalled. The two key elements of this debate are ultimately the trade deals themselves, and the logistics and regulations that support the ability to financially and practically fulfil these deals in a vastly competitive market.

From the rather pessimistic suggestions that “Greece is luring companies across the channel” and battening down the hatches for a “Post-Brexit Armageddon at Dover Port” to the more optimistic perception that “shipping will be the backbone of a Global Britain” and even bestow a pivotal role of acting as a “brake on unilateral European Union action at the International Maritime Organization,”  it is clear that the country and shipping industry itself its divided.

The maritime industry contributes around £15bn to the UK economy each year and supports over 111,000 jobs. There is no denying the geopolitical importance of the UK in global shipping. The English Channel and the Strait of Dover is the busiest shipping route in the world and harm to British shipping will inevitably have a knock-on effect in key ports such as Calais, Zeebrugge, Dublin, Antwerp, Rotterdam and Bremerhaven. With the physical space of the ocean as the most important area in facilitating the circulation of goods that facilitate free trade, and with the interdependence of European ports, wouldn’t it be common sense that Brexit would give the UK back its freedom to thrive in such a prominent industry as an island nation?

The fears that have surrounded the ability for the UK to survive on its own outside of the EU trading agreements are largely rooted in fear of reverting to a stripped back version of the GATT Agreement through the World Trade Organisation. It has been labelled by the Financial Times as the “the cold hard floor on which the UK will splat down if no safety net is in place in time.” This would leave the UK vulnerable to the blocking of its schedules by other countries who have ulterior political motives, namely Argentina over the Falkland Islands and Spain over Gibraltar.

Others such as the Daily Telegraph‘s Liam Halligan believe that a Hard Brexit would “minimize market uncertainty.”  He argues that falling back on WTO rules would not be a disaster for Britain. Since they determine the trade outside of the EU for 85% of global trade, of which over 90% is carried by sea, it is therefore predicted that by having a “huge EU deficit, with the non-EU, under WTO rules we run a £30bn surplus.” Any concerns over market uncertainty and infrastructure would be purely short-term.

Patrick Walkers, Peel Ports’ Group Commercial Director supports the idea of a GATT directed trade route, and advocates that “it may be easier to strike trade agreements between the UK and countries such as India, the US, Canada (with whom the UK has strong historical ties) and south American countries, without the need to get consensus approval from the other 27 EU countries.”

These bilateral agreements as solutions to leaving the Single Market have also been supported by UK Shipping Minister John Hayes, who is committed to increase the registry of British Merchant Ships from 16 to 30 million gross tonnage by offering tax breaks, British consular support and the protection of the Royal Navy to improve the role of British shipping in the process of trade.

The British Shippers’ Council remains wary: it announced that it is too early to tell or give a sensible prediction on trade volume. What is clear is that, either way, a return to WTO regulations, or the opportunity to pursue bilateral trade agreements will not only have an economic effect, but leave a vacuum of uncertainty in foreign and Commonwealth endeavours.

The issue of infrastructure has been of particular concern to the shipping industry in recent months. ‘Brexit-Related Chaos’ could be epitomised by long queues at British ports, the lack of customs technologies, and disruptive health controls that are set to restrict trade in the immediate period post-Brexit. Tim Dixon, general manager of Motis Freight Services Agency at Dover is quoted in the Financial Times as having speculated that, “From the 500 or so [lorries going to non-EU countries] that we process now, we could suddenly be doing up to 10,000 a day.”

Concerns over processing freight have been mirrored in other key ports, in particular across Wales – hosting the transport of 70% of Irish cargo – with the quickest route of perishable goods through Holyhead, Pembroke, Fishguard and Milford Haven. Local Holyhead MP Albert Owen has inferred that the issue would be accentuated in North Wales where the “traffic arrives in pulses unlike Dover where it is a steady stream.” An increase in traffic post-Brexit could result in queues exceeding the 7km already experienced if two ferries arrive at once on the A55 a dual-carriage expressway. The route was only extended in 2001 and it already faces large scale criticism for extensive roadworks and poor traffic management during the summer holiday season.

These concerns have not been expressed without attempts at identifying solutions that will mitigate these issues. A report by Charlie Elphicke, MP for Dover and Deal is ambitiously entitled “Ready on Day One: Meeting the Brexit Borders Challenge.” It explores the anxieties surrounding infrastructure, customs and excise as well as international trade agreements that will be shaped by the imposition of borders.

Elphicke’s report compiles a set of recommendations including ensuring that the Thames Crossing project is completed on time, highlighting the need for effective technologies to be in place for seamless customs controls, extending the relationship with France through a renewal of the “Le Touquet Treaty” and the cleaning up of administration surrounding both the time it takes to push through new road projects and the creation of a single government ministry to hold responsibility of the UK border as opposed to a “mind boggling array of ministries, quangos and agencies.”

The report was welcomed by Guy Platten, UK Chamber of Shipping CEO, who highlights the ambition of the report and that each of the recommendations are a “political choice, to ensure we are ready from day one.” The choice of words is significant: the direction of these political choices will remain uncertain until we hear more substance from the ongoing UK-EU negotiations.

Platten also has hope for the future of trade with the EU by reflecting on the Singaporean experience: “Ultimately, if Singapore can fulfil its customs obligations with the EU in a mere ten seconds, then there is no reason why we can’t.” So ‘Brexit-Related Chaos‘ may just be the amalgamation of the apparent chaos of uncertainty.

This article has only briefly addressed two features of the debate in looking at trade deals and infrastructure, yet the debate continues into other key areas of shipping such as the decline in interest in joining up for a career in the maritime industry, the lack of UK registered ships due to competition and flags of convenience, as well as uncertainty surrounding the free movement of British seafarers in Europe.

Ambitious commitments have been made to make the Brexit transition as orderly as possible.  There are pledges to double the fleet of merchant Navy vessels, consolidate the UK Border Agency into one ministry, and conform to bilateral trade agreements. But, as it stands, these are all speculatory: they can’t guarantee any direction of the future of UK shipping.

What is promising is the level of ambitious short- and long-term solutions that are being offered. These must continue throughout the negotiation process to ensure that options are plentiful. It is only by coming up with practical, realistic solutions that Britain has any chance of sailing towards that glorious maritime future.