At the 2011 Assembly election, 34 of the 108 successful candidates were elected solely on first preference votes under our Single Transferrable Vote electoral system. In 2016, this figure fell by 50%: only 17 MLAs were elected at the first count.

This means that 74 MLAs in 2011, and 91 MLAs in 2016 relied on vote transfers – second, third, fourth, preferences and so on – from other candidates.

At next month’s election the number of Assembly seats is due to fall from 108 to 90. With one less seat in each constituency up for grabs (five instead of six) we’re looking at electoral quotas – and requirements for election, generally – rising.

An even higher proportion of candidates may have to rely on transfers to ‘get over the line’; broadening one’s appeal, becoming more transfer-friendly has never been – or should be – more incentivising.

Last month, outgoing First Minister Arlene Foster said we’re heading for a “brutal” election campaign.On Saturday, Irish News journalist John Manley said it’s been more boring than brutal. Whatever your thoughts on the campaign, polling day itself might tell a very different story.

One thing is for sure: 18 MLAs who were elected to the last Assembly will not be returned. Electoral shocks are all but certain. Arguably, the two most important determining factors will be 1) the number of voters who turnout and 2) where they allocate their voting preferences.

According to figures shared by the Northern Ireland Assembly Research and Information Service, last May’s election saw the UUP receive the most transferred votes (25%), followed by the DUP (22%), Sinn Féin (14%), SDLP (13%), Alliance (11%), Green Party (4%), TUV (3%) and People Before Profit Alliance (1%).

These votes and transfers may have only brought a slight alteration in the political landscape, however, figures released by polling company LucidTalk last week suggest further changes in voting and transferring intentions.

On 2nd March, will the DUP or Sinn Féin benefit or lose out from a snap poll? Will the formation of an Official Opposition at the Assembly boost the UUP and SDLP? Will their co-operation encourage their supporters to transfer to each other?

Whatever the context for the election and whatever the tone of the campaign over the coming weeks, individual candidates will be alive to the very real implications that the impending Assembly shake-up may have on their electoral chances.

A candidate topping a poll last time out might have expected a short wait for a few hundred second and third preference votes to be deemed elected. This time the numbers game might not be as straightforward. There’s never been a better time to be transfer-friendly.