With all 108 seats filled, we now have a final picture of the new Northern Ireland Assembly, and it looks pretty much the same as it did before polling day. Arlene Foster has been decisively returned as First Minister, and Sinn Féin comfortably remains Northern Ireland’s second party. Foster’s success is particularly remarkable in that the DUP entered this election defending 38 seats. I, along with most other commentators – and DUP strategists themselves – doubted that it would come back with all 38. Speaking to the media as she arrived at the Belfast count, Mrs Foster declared that she wasn’t simply relived; she was “elated” by the results.

There is no doubt that the DUP were the real winners of this election, due in no small part to Arlene Foster’s leadership. Despite only being in the job for six months, Peter Robinson already seems like a distant memory. That was very deliberate on the DUP’s part, and it paid off. For its part, Sinn Féin will be disappointed that it didn’t reach its 30 seat target (it lost one seat overall), but will be satisfied to have seen off a challenge from a partially rejuvenated SDLP under Colum Eastwood’s leadership.

Given the overall political climate, what is most remarkable about the election results is that they suggest broad levels of satisfaction with how Northern Ireland has been governed over the last five years. But is that really the case? Whether you looked at any poll, academic study, or simply just overheard a random conversation in a pub, I doubt you would have concluded that people were satisfied with their government. So if that was the case, why so little change?

I have two answers. First, Northern Ireland’s political system doesn’t really facilitate radical change. Second, change did happen, but it’s mainly below the surface.

Let’s start with the political system. For much of the last Assembly, our five largest parties were all in government. That meant that out of 108 MLAs, only six were outside of government. That begs a fundamental question. If you weren’t particularly happy with the performance of the government over the last five years, who would you vote for? It was clear that the DUP and Sinn Féin were the most powerful members of government. Much less clear was what the Ulster Unionists, SDLP and Alliance could offer instead. These three parties didn’t hold back from criticizing the status quo, even while they were members of government, but they resoundingly failed to articulate a convincing alternative.

Whatever the policy differences that exist between the three smaller parties and the big two, they become largely meaningless if people know that they will all be in government together anyway. We know this from coalitions around the world. If people want to reward a coalition government, they overwhelmingly vote for its largest party. If people want to punish a coalition government, they vote for an established opposition party. In the absence of this kind of dynamic, and in the absence of any major party unequivocally pledging to enter opposition, there is a stark absence of meaningful competition. Hence, the new Assembly begins roughly where it left off.

But let’s consider the change that did happen. Here are five of the most important numbers that lie behind this election’s more obvious results:

  • 54.9%: That’s the percentage of eligible voters who actually participated in this election. Although it’s only a small decrease from 2011, it is a record low. Turnout isn’t particularly high in many advanced democracies, but what is worrying in Northern Ireland has been the sheer rate of decline. In the first Assembly election, turnout stood at 70%. It has fallen in every subsequent contest. If people don’t feel as if they can influence change by voting, or if they are disillusioned by the choice on offer, they are increasingly likely to vote with their feet and stay clear of the polling station.
  • 7.3%: That’s the reduction in the combined share of the vote received by the five main parties. In other words, there was a 7.3% swing against the government (since the UUP only recently left the Executive, it can still be considered a party of government from the last mandate). In many democracies, a 7.3% drop in support for governing parties would be more than enough to result in their ousting from power. Individually, each of the five main parties saw a reduction in support. That’s hardly a ringing endorsement of the status quo. To think otherwise is to misinterpret what the electorate has said.
  • 45.9%: That’s the total amount of support received by the five main parties as a share of the total electorate. Crucially, this is the first time it has ever dropped below the 50% mark. Why is that so important? In Northern Ireland, our political system is built around the notion of power-sharing, and that the legitimacy of our system of government is underpinned by its inclusivity. Quite simply, that argument no longer stands. Even if all five main parties were to share power in government, they will only represent a minority of the electorate. That is hardly a mandate, let alone an inclusive one.
  • 15.2%: That’s the share of the vote received by ‘other’ parties and independents. It’s the highest ever recorded in an Assembly election. In the absence of any mainstream alternative to the five largest parties, over 100,000 voters were attracted to the Greens, People Before Profit, TUV and others. This eclectic ‘naughty corner’ will serve a vital role in the new Assembly, particularly if the UUP, SDLP and Alliance abdicate their clear duty to enter formal opposition. Gerry Carroll, Eamonn McCann, Steven Agnew, Clare Bailey, Jim Allister, and Claire Sugden will bring a collectively colourful contribution to Stormont’s blue benches.
  • 30.6%: That’s the percentage of MLAs who will be arriving at Stormont for the very first time this week. For so much continuity in the number of seats received by each party, that’s a very dramatic turnover. These fresh faces will reduce the average age of MLAs, go some way towards bridging the gender gap in representation, and help to bring new life experiences to decision-making. Each of the five main parties has at least one new interesting character to watch: Joanne Bunting (DUP, East Belfast), Catherine Seeley (SF, Upper Bann), Doug Beattie (UUP, Upper Bann), Nichola Mallon (SDLP, North Belfast), and Paula Bradshaw (Alliance, South Belfast). Let’s see if these new faces will help to bring about change within the main parties.

To sum up, this Assembly election didn’t produce a great deal of change for the overarching reason that Northern Ireland’s political system doesn’t accommodate change particularly well. Whether or not the Ulster Unionists, SDLP and Alliance decide to form an official opposition over the coming weeks, their collective decision will help to determine just how much change is possible in the next Assembly election. But that’s not to say that this election was all about the same old, same old. There were some extremely important changes. You just have to dig a little deeper in the numbers to notice them.