Ahead of UK general elections, Sinn Féin’s opponents will criticise the party’s policy of not taking its seats at Westminster.

Arguments have it that the party’s policy ensures only irrelevancy; the absence of Sinn Féin in contrast to the DUP’s willingness and capability to strike a £1billion deal with a minority Conservative government will continue to be used as a case in point.

Some even claim that many intending to vote Sinn Féin don’t understand what they’re voting for. Today’s polls published by LucidTalk put this speculation to bed.

The polling and market research company runs regular ‘Tracker’ polls of their established Northern Ireland-wide and online Opinion Panel – usually on a quarterly basis. For this latest ‘Tracker’ poll-project, conducted between 21 and 23 June, its 8,827 member Panel was targeted, and invited to participate; 2,883 responses were received.

When respondents who indicated that they were Sinn Féin voters or supporters were asked whether they agree with the party abstaining from taking their seats at Westminster, 87% said they fully support the policy. Only 5% stated they disagreed with abstentionism.

“We note you said you voted/supported Sinn Féin in the recent elections (and/or support them now). Do you agree with the Sinn Féin policy of abstaining from taking their seats in Westminster?” 2,080 responses (weighted); displaying results for Sinn Féin voters only.

 

When these same respondents were asked how they would feel if the Sinn Féin leadership judged that it strategically suited the party’s republican agenda to take their seats at Westminster, over 50% said they would either not like this policy change, or would be totally against it.

“If the Sinn Féin leadership judged that it strategically suited Sinn Féin’s overall republican objectives to take their seats at Westminster, would you agree with this?” 2,080 responses (weighted); displaying results for Sinn Féin voters only.

 

At no point has the party leadership expressed any suggestion that the policy may change; and LucidTalk’s polls suggest the party’s grassroots don’t want it either. Don’t expect a change any time soon, then.

For a long time, some predicted that the only way Sinn Féin could wipe out the SDLP was not only by “stealing its clothes” but by pulling the Westminster seats from under them and sitting on them.

This month’s snap election shows this wasn’t necessary, when the party won the constituencies of Foyle and South Down from their nationalist rivals.

It seems it is the wider political context that has driven Northern Ireland’s electorate away from the parties of the centre ground.

Twelve months after the Brexit referendum, our electoral map is split in half between unionists who turn up to Westminster – 10 DUP MPs and 1 independent unionist – and Sinn Féin (7) who don’t.

2017 marks 100 years since the first Sinn Féin MPs were elected to Westminster, just months after the 1916 Easter Rising.

Brexit, of course, is no Easter Rising but it does mark a significant milestone in both the histories of the UK and Ireland. Negotiations preceding the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union commenced last week; we may see plenty of twists and turns.

In the meantime, whilst in Scotland a nationalist government bides its time before calling a referendum on its independence, here nationalist-leaning voters are increasingly turning to Sinn Féin and its policy of abstention to make clear to the UK government that they don’t see their future at Westminster.

 

Methodology, and more on LucidTalk

Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online for a period of 60 Hours from 11am 21st June to 11pm 23rd June 2017 (60 Hours). The project targeted the established Northern Ireland (NI) LucidTalk online Opinion Panel (8,827 members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland.

2,883 full responses were received, and a data auditing process was carried out to ensure all completed poll-surveys were genuine ‘one-person, one-vote’ responses, and also to collate a robust and accurate balanced NI representative sample. This resulted in 2,080 responses being considered in terms of the final results – the results presented in this report.

All data results have been weighted by gender and community background to reflect the demographic composition of Northern Ireland resulting in 2,080 responses being considered in terms of the final results. All data results produced are accurate to a margin of error of +/-3.0%, at 95% confidence.

LucidTalk is a member of all recognised professional Polling and Market Research organisations, including the UK Market Research Society (UK-MRS), the British Polling Council (BPC), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations).

For more information, visit www.lucidtalk.co.uk and follow @LucidTalk on Twitter.

Also published on Medium.