Conservative backbenchers this week called on Theresa May to replace Karen Bradley as Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. Most of us may well support such calls – it really is very difficult to see what, if anything, she has achieved during her tenure – but, surprisingly, these calls stem not from her total failure as a minister but from the supposed breakdown in her relationship with the DUP.

Suffice to say it is not the job of the Secretary of State to manage the government’s relationship with its confidence and supply partner. Indeed, the Northern Ireland Office (NIO) itself describes its key purpose as “to ensure the smooth working of the devolution settlement in Northern Ireland” whilst also “representing Northern Ireland at Westminster and the hear of Government.”

In this, Karen Bradley has utterly failed. But for her to be removed to make way for someone even more keen to please the DUP will clearly move the NIO even further away from its own professed goals. Once again the British government will have given in to the DUP in its desperation to pass Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

Such developments come as the latest polling from LucidTalk indicates just how far the DUP has wondered from majority opinion in Northern Ireland.

According to the poll, 55% of people in Northern Ireland would vote Remain if there was a poll tomorrow, whilst a further 8% would either want a different deal closer to the EU, or to accept the UK government’s deal. 34% would reject the deal – the DUP’s stated position – but are divided on whether they would prefer to leave without a deal or with a different deal. When all other options are stripped away, 64% would prefer to Remain whilst only 36% would seek to leave without a deal.

Looking at the issue in more depth, LucidTalk asked respondents specifically how they felt about Northern Ireland remaining closely tied to the EU whilst Britain had a more arms-length arrangement. 35% of the population said they would oppose this kind of arrangement – though this represented a considerable 69% of unionists. Conversely, 65% of the population would welcome such a divergence between Northern Ireland and GB – including 98% of nationalists, 88% of “other” voters and 31% of unionists.

LucidTalk also found that 54% of respondents agreed that business organisations such as the Ulster Farmers Union were correct to back the UK Government’s deal (with 37% in disagreement) whilst a large majority of the population (65%) felt that the DUP’s tactics in the Brexit discussions were wrong with only 26% (including only 51% of unionists) supporting the DUP’s stance. Voters were generally more supportive of the Irish government’s contribution with 48% agreeing that they had been helpful and 41% disagreeing.

What these figures reveal is that the DUP is now, at best, speaking for 34-37% of the country. An overwhelming majority of nationalists, “others” and a significant minority of unionists reject both the DUP’s tactics and its arguments whilst being amenable to both Mrs May’s deal and an even closer relationship with the EU – even if that means diverging from the rest of the UK. In this, Northern Ireland’s preference is clear.

Armed with these figures, isn’t it time for the Prime Minister to, finally, stand up to the DUP? Hitherto, the Prime Minister has repeatedly allowed the DUP to humiliate her (after the 2017 election, in December 2017 and again with the “non-deal” in January 2018) – and has time and time again accepted the DUP’s arguments that any divergence between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK would be bad for Northern Ireland.

Does the Prime Minister not realise how much of the DUP’s rhetoric is empty bluster founded on severe vulnerability? Even now the DUP continue to insist that they can vote down her deal whilst maintaining the confidence and supply deal – an insistence born out of desperation not to have to make a choice between their own rhetoric on the Union and the money that Northern Ireland so badly needs. They have backed themselves into a corner only for the Prime Minister to consistently offer them a way out.

In allowing this to continue the Prime Minister is only endangering herself and kowtowing to the DUP in a way David Cameron never did with the Liberal Democrats. If she wants to survive she should take a leaf from Tony Blair’s book and turn the screws on the DUP. She needs to make it far more difficult for them to reject this deal than it is currently.

In so doing, Theresa May should replace Karen Bradley, not with someone more amenable but with an individual far less so. The new Secretary of State should then inform the DUP that they are appointing an independent chair to oversee negotiations over the formation of the assembly. They should make it clear that new elections to that assembly are in the pipeline.

In the meantime, the UK Government should legislate for equal marriage and abortion rights in Northern Ireland – reforms likely to pass the House of Commons with large majorities – and threaten to withhold the remainder of the supply and confidence money.

Ultimately the DUP have an electorate to face in Northern Ireland – the Prime Minister does not. And for as long as the DUP continue to neglect the majority they are sowing the seeds of their own downfall – whether it be in the next election or a border poll yet to come. If the Prime Minister is to survive, she needs to learn that lesson fast.

 

Methodology, and more on LucidTalk

The polling referenced in this article was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online over a period of four days from 30th November to 3rd December 2018. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (11,227 members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). 1,334 full responses were considered in terms of the final results, and a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-surveys were genuine ‘one-person, one-vote’ responses, and also to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This 1,334 responses dataset was/is a demographically representative sample of Northern Ireland – producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-3%.

LucidTalk was on U105 radio on 7th December 2018 reviewing the results from this poll-project. You can listen to the interview and discussion here.

Also published on Medium.