Today it’s Super Tuesday. It’s when twelve states hold primary elections on the same day. Up until now we have seen contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, one at a time. Now the candidates running for the White House can’t rely on favourable state-by-state factors. They need to go national if they are to succeed. Here are four things to look out for when the polls close tonight.

 

What do voters say matters to them most?

What voters care about on the day will give us a good idea of who they end up voting for. Do they want someone who tells it like it is? Do want someone who shares their values? Do they care about a candidate’s perceived honesty? Or do they just want a candidate who can win the actual election in November? Ask a certain question, and you get a certain answer.

Hillary Clinton still isn’t seen as a particularly trustworthy candidate, and she finds it hard to inspire Democratic voters about her vision for America in the way that Bernie Sanders has done. But she’s working on that. And if it comes down to who can beat the Republicans, she’s the hands-down favourite.

The worrying thing for those who want to stop Donald Trump is that, amazingly, and like he brashly says, he is winning with lots of different types of people: people of different ages, different incomes, different levels of education, and so on. The only thing that could conceivably prevent him from doing well today will come down to whether or not enough voters re-evaluate his values and trustworthiness. For example, if enough evangelical Christian voters suddenly realize that he might not be who he says he is, then they might opt for Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz instead. But it feels like we’re past that opportunity for serious reflection.

 

Will it be a Clinton-Trump landslide, or an earthquake?

There’s really not much point in asking whether or not Clinton and Trump will emerge as the day’s winners. The real question is how much they win by, and in how many states. There is a real possibility that both Clinton and Trump will virtually wipe the board, so there are a few states in particular that will be important to watch. For Hillary, it’s Massachusetts. Bernie Sanders did very well in neighbouring New Hampshire last month, and will almost certainly win his home state of Vermont today. But if she manages to beat him in Massachusetts, whilst losing Vermont, it will show that she can beat him pretty much anywhere.

For Donald Trump, it’s Texas. One of his rivals, Ted Cruz, is a senator for the Lone Star state and enjoys a loyal base of support. Even if Trump loses the big prize of Texas, however, it will be easy to shrug it off as a win for Cruz in his own back yard.

 

Who will still be standing on Wednesday?

With the Democrats it’s already a two-horse race, and it’s always been Hillary Clinton’s to lose. Bernie Sanders has mounted a respectable challenge, gained some momentum along the way, but he has not yet been able to emerge as a serious challenger in the way that Barack Obama did from the start in 2008. Sanders might stay in the race a while longer to provide voters with a choice and contribute to the debate. Giving Hillary Clinton a longer challenge will help to make her a better nominee. Americans don’t warm to a candidate who wins too easily, especially if that candidate happens to be Hillary Clinton.

 

On the Republican side it had been a chaotic twelve-way race until merely a month ago. There are currently five men still standing: Donald Trump, Senator Marco Rubio, Senator Ted Cruz, Governor John Kasich and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. The only candidates who have any chance of stopping Trump are Rubio and Cruz, the former being an establishment favourite and the latter being (in some ways) more of a thorn on the party establishment’s side than even Trump himself. It’s anyone’s guess why Ben Carson is still in the race. He hasn’t finished above fourth place in any contest, and his recent debate performances have been woeful, notable only for his bizarre reference to a fruit salad and desperate attempts to be heard: “Could someone attack me, please?” Kasich’s continued presence is perhaps more understandable, but no less futile. He has valiantly tried to raise the bar of the debate, but his more reasonable voice has been drowned out in this gutter fight that is the race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination.

 

What on earth will the Republican Party do?

Democrats will start rallying around Hillary Clinton and focusing on the November election against Donald Trump.

The Republican Party will be in utter crisis. It’s in a crisis right now, but many establishment figures are probably still hoping that their Trumpian nightmare ends. There’s a split of opinion on just how bad it would be if Donald Trump emerges as the Republican Party’s nominee. In a surprise move, ‘establishment’ Governor Chris Christie endorsed Trump on Friday, becoming the most mainstream figure in the party to do so. It was likely a pre-emptive, rational strike by Christie: he knew there was no longer any stopping Trump, so he might as well be on his side rather than in his way. But many are unlikely to ever come around to Christie’s pragmatic thinking. As the veteran Senator for South Carolina, Lindsey Graham, quipped last week, “My party has gone bat**** crazy.” He’s right. After the polls close today, the Republicans will be in unchartered – and very dangerous – territory. The party of Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt and Eisenhower will be just another part of the Trump franchise. Senior party figures will be asking themselves, is this for real?