2016 has been memorable to say the least. Some might say it has been seismic, pivotal, even downright depressing.

A populist tidal wave has brought with it a series of shocks, most notably the Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s election as US President. Elsewhere we have seen a peace deal in Colombia rejected by voters, an attempted military coup fail in Turkey. The list goes on.

Setting aside any personal despair, this year has been fascinating to watch and often verged on satirical.

The year will end with huge questions in the air: How ‘hard’ will Brexit be? Will we see an isolationist US under Trump; or will he be recklessly or ruthlessly interventionist? What will be the next shock?

The only certainty seems that this chain reaction will continue into 2017.

In Europe, eyes will turn to upcoming elections in France and Germany, soon to be the two most prominent EU powers once Britain makes its exit.

France: Is a Marine Le Pen presidency likely?

The French presidential elections promise to be just as tense as the EU referendum and US counterpart.

Disillusionment with the governing Parti Socialiste under current President Francois Hollande is so widespread that it is considered unlikely Hollande himself or his former Economy Minister, Emmanuel Macron, will even reach the second round of voting.

Nonetheless, Macron’s entry into the race could very well divert votes from his likely Les Républicains opponent and fellow centrist Alain Juppé, the current favourite for the presidency.

This prediction is, of course, based on opinion polls which project a second round showdown between Mr Juppé and the Front National’s Marine Le Pen.

Although French pollsters insist they have taken ‘shy’ far-right voters into account, one can only be cautious during what is a tricky time for the polling profession. Only Le Pen really seems confident.

A Le Pen presidency would slot neatly into the sequence of recent events; what’s more, her triumph would spell a potentially fatal blow to an already wounded EU which the FN has long loathed.

Germany: What’s the alternative to Merkel?

September’s German regional elections left Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Party (CPD) trailing behind not just the Social Democrats but also the anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), whose popularity has been bolstered by discomfort at the Federal government’s liberal stance on refugees.

“It is our responsibility to make politics for the people. The people no longer trust the old establishment parties to do so,” says AfD’s co-leader, Frauke Petry. This AfD gain is by no means isolated, and these words will certainly ring bells.

Is “a new world” emerging?

Should 2017 continue down the path of ‘16, we may well see what Le Pen believes to be “a new world” emerging. What this means, exactly, for the middle ground, the trajectory of the tone, values and actions we have come to expect in our politicians and international relations is less clear.