There has arguably never been a more interesting and exciting time in Irish politics for my generation. I for one have been propelled full whack into Ireland’s changing dynamics since the outcome of the Brexit referendum in 2016 and have done some real political soul searching in the last year and a half.

Ireland is an island in transition. A new Ireland is firmly on the horizon. Now more than ever, a united Ireland is a genuine real prospect and is being given the credibility and exposure it deserves. Granted, there are challenges that come with it but done correctly, there are abundant prosperous opportunities for the Island to come from it.

My support for a united Ireland isn’t solely based on the romantic idea of a nation once again. It is my fundamental belief that every man, woman and child on the island, regardless of their background, will be socially and economically better off as a result. And more and more people of all backgrounds are beginning to come to that realisation.

 

Dynamics are changing

In the North, demographics are changing. By the 2021 census it is widely expected that for the first time since the formation of the state, a majority of the population in Northern Ireland will be those of a Catholic background. This is reflected by the loss of the Unionist majority at Stormont back in the March election.

Now that’s not to imply all Catholics would vote for a united Ireland but it’s safe to say those from such a background, are more comfortable identifying with the island as a whole and with cross-border relations in general, as many protestants also now are.

Belfast and Derry, the two main cities in the North, are now Nationalist majority cities. A huge influence.

Statistics show Catholic schoolchildren are more likely to go on to 3rd level education than their Protestant counterparts, and therefore may have greater influence in future business and politics.

In October 2017, LucidTalk conducted a poll with 10,000 people in the North- nearly 80% of those polled favoured a border referendum at some point in the future. Almost half of them, 47% favoured having a border referendum within five years.

Similarly, opinion polls in the Republic show a continued strong appetite for Irish unity.

These statistics would indicate whether it’s in 5 years or 20 years, that a successful referendum on Irish reunification, underpinned in the Good Friday Agreement, has a huge likelihood of becoming a reality in the not too distant future.

 

Unification study

I don’t think that anyone would agree that a small island on the edge of Europe with a humble population of 6.5 million people, yet has two of everything, makes economic sense? Two currencies, two tax systems, two education systems, two health services, two tourism initiatives, two economies- who are not only working alongside each other but are actually competing against one another.

Dr. Kurt Hubner at the University of British Columbia conducted an independent and non-partisan study- Modeling Irish Unification. His results were hugely encouraging, showing a boost of €36 billion to an all-island economy in the first eight years after re-unification.

It is assumed that both jurisdictions would adopt the euro. Secondly, there would be tax harmonisations across the island. The complete elimination of a border and trade barriers would benefit them both. The Republic of Ireland, would benefit from barrier-free access to the Northern market. By modeling three separate unification scenarios, the researchers showed a long-term improvement of GDP per capita in the North of 4 to 7.5 percent, while the Republic of Ireland would see a boost of 0.7 to 1.2 percent.

 

The need for unity

Like so many former industrial cities, Belfast struggles with high poverty and unemployment. The Irish Republic has breezed ahead of Northern Ireland in recent decades, due to its young and highly educated population and business-friendly policies, being set to reach full employment by 2018.

According to the NISRA, the average wage of full time workers annually in Northern Ireland is £26,000 (2016). Compare that with average wage of full time workers recorded by the CSO in the Republic of Ireland, at €45,000 (approx.-£40,000). A huge gap.

The United Nations Human Development Index measures health, education, and income levels worldwide. The Republic of Ireland is ranked as 8th in the world. Northern Ireland is currently ranked 44th and is set to tumble below 50th position after Brexit, joining the levels of Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Imagine what we could achieve with a single all Ireland jobs and investment agency, combining IDA Ireland and its equivalent Invest NI. Working as a unit for investment rather than competing. Imagine the ease of an all-Ireland health service, all Ireland Agri-farming sector. No trade or currency barriers. The ease and potential of this system is undeniable.

 

What a new Ireland might look like

I think when many people hear ‘united Ireland’ they just assume the North would be absorbed by the Republic overnight and automatically adopt everything that comes with it. This is not the case.

If Brexit has taught us anything, it’s that referendums should not be held without a blueprint, plan or straightforward facts about what would happen in the event of a change of policy. Here are some proposed ideas about how that ­may look:

Any transfer of sovereignty and financial responsibility could be done over a transition period likely to be 5-10 years. The Good Friday Agreement would stay largely in place, having the roles of the British and Irish governments reversed, and overseen and financially helped by the EU. The role of the UK Government would continue as the guarantor for the unionist community.

The Stormont institution in Belfast could stay in place and have local devolved powers similar to what it has now with the continued power sharing agreement. Island wide matters would be then debated and decided in Dublin of which unionists would make up 20% of the population and exercise real authority, power and influence, going from a tiny minority in Westminster to a significant minority in Dublin’s Leinster House.

People who identify as British could continue to hold such citizenship and have the right to pass this citizenship onto their children freely.

New constitutional recognition would be given for the unique unionist cultural identity and a new pluralist education system implemented.

In a realistic united Ireland the possibility of new flags, anthem and symbols would need to be discussed to reflect the significant diversity of traditions now within the new state.

 

The challenges

With just 6.5 million people on the island- North and South combined, it is relatively straightforward, administratively speaking, to reunite.

The German unification of 1990 were 16 million people in the East rejoined 63 million in the West successfully, affirms that smaller Northern Ireland’s 1.8 million population and Republic’s 4.5 million reunification can be successful.

Now, I’m not naive to the fact that no matter how much evidence or positive arguments you put in front of some, many will not accept the concept of this new Ireland. But it is our job to plan inclusively for that day and welcome all to the table on how it might look.

Getting hard-line unionists to become part of the conversation is the problem. There are reasonable and important points for unionists and, indeed, non-unionists to be involved in the future of a united Ireland. It is in my opinion they need to discuss reunification from a position of strength, rather than from a position of weakness, thus guaranteeing an acceptable and beneficial deal for the unionist people, who would be highly welcomed into the new state.

Reassurance that our unionist friends and neighbours are protected and included in this vision should be an utmost priority. Ireland as it stands is almost unrecognizable to that of 50 years ago. The Catholic Ireland of that time has now gone having outward looking views, which is shown by the current openly gay, mixed race Taoiseach. A united Ireland would be an inclusive society of all faiths, backgrounds, nationalities and identities.

 

Final point

We now realise, that Irish reunification has become not a matter of if, but when. Demographic changes and economic benefits enshrine this into reality. The key is preparation. Both governments need to plan for this inevitable day, creating a smooth and inclusive transition. Modern and diverse. An Ireland for all. The evidence is there, the politics just needs to catch up.