This weekend, Irish Taoiseach Enda Kenny hit the nail on the head when he said “democracy is always exciting but it is merciless when it kicks in.”

As the longest serving TD in the Dáil, who spent two parliamentary terms as leader of the Opposition rebuilding the Fine Gael party, leading them into government and watching their lead over others evaporate overnight, he should know this more than anyone.

Traditionally the state’s party of the Opposition, playing second fiddle to Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael has never managed to govern alone or hold on to office for more than one term. The party has always had to form a coalition with Irish Labour and others.

According to many opinion polls before Friday’s general election, a return of the Fine Gael-Labour administration had seemed realistic. After this weekend, however, following a significant drop in support for the governing parties the return of the two looks highly unlikely if not impossible.

Fine Gael may still be the largest party, but a secure return to government is far from guaranteed.

Fianna Fáil, on the other hand, appears to be back in business following the party’s near implosion in 2011. Sinn Féin is on the rise, too, becoming the state’s third party having comprehensively replaced Labour.

The continuing surge in support for smaller parties and independents is incredible. Even the Green Party, wiped out entirely from the Dáil five years ago, is back with two seats. Essentially, we are witnessing the coming together of the most ever fragmented parliament in the history of the Irish state.

Former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern has said there might not be a new government agreed by St Patrick’s Day in two weeks’ time. Even if parties cannot agree to govern together, and a second election is called for later in the year, would there really be much point in going to the polls again?

The last time two Irish elections were held in the same year was in 1982; back when Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were, really, the only shows in town. Should these parties today force another election, who is to say they might not be punished further?

So, where did it all go wrong for Fine Gael? Is complacency to blame; is vote management? Ousted Fine Gael TD, deputy party leader and government minister, James O’Reilly said the party failed to make an emotional connection with voters.

From the campaign’s outset Fine Gaels’ slogan ‘Keep the recovery going’ was questioned. Of course the state of the Irish economy has improved since 2011, but has a recovery really been felt by everyone on the ground, particularly outside of Dublin?

As noted by the Irish Times’ commentator Noel Whelan over the weekend, this election has turned on its head the notion of ‘it’s the economy, stupid’. Society matters too. Despite years having passed since the IMF’s bail out of the Republic, a sense of post-trauma persists across the country.

The size and shape of other parties in the Dáil have changed, and questions over Fianna Fáil’s intentions – as to whether they will enter into coalition with Fine Gael, agree a supply-and-demand arrangement with a minority Fine Gael government or continue to act as the official Opposition is at this moment anyone’s guess.

It was no exaggeration by Anti Austerity Alliance TD Paul Murphy when he said a “political earthquake” occurred this weekend. The fact that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’s combined share of the vote is estimated to have fallen below 50% for the first time shows just how fragmented the Republic’s political landscape has become.

Whereas it may take weeks before we find out the make-up of the next Irish government and can assess its chances of survival, with mandatory coalition in Northern Ireland we have at least some idea of what parties may form our next Executive after 5th May. Time will tell, whether our Assembly elections will be as exciting or merciless.