On Thursday, by referendum the UK voted to leave the European Union by 52% to 48%. More specifically, majorities in England and Wales voted to leave; all 32 Council areas in Scotland and 11 of 18 constituencies in Northern Ireland voted to remain.

The vote brings an end to Britain’s 43-year membership of the ‘European project’, and an end to David Cameron’s tenure as Prime Minister having led the ‘Remain’ campaign to defeat. It highlights the deep rooted divisions that exist right across the nation, between regions and socio-economic classes. Already it has reignited constitutional questions in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

For better or worse, the result dawns a new era in British politics.

So, why did Remain – the bookies’ favourite – lose, and Cameron have to resign? How did the Leave campaign win; what can we expect, and what questions remain unresolved?


Why Remain lost, and Cameron had to go

From the off it is fair to write that David Cameron lacked conviction on Europe. After years of bashing Brussels, a Conservative Party asking voters to put their trust in EU institutions to deliver reform was unlikely to persuade voters they had long warned to be sceptical.

Secondly, Cameron’s call to ‘Remain’ seems to have signalled “please, anything but Leave”. A more authentic passion for the ‘European project’, its opportunities and benefits – other than geopolitical and economic stability, and his political career – might have been more aspirational.

Thirdly, blame lies with Tory complacency. Until Friday, Cameron led a charmed premiership despite overseeing 6 years of austerity: winning the 2011 referendum that blocked voting reform, overcoming the 2014 Scottish independence vote before winning an overall majority in 2015’s general election.

It is funny how having the Liberal Democrats as coalition partners granted Cameron safety in numbers in parliament. With a wafer-thin Tory majority and Lib Dems all but wiped out his backbench Euro-sceptics gleefully ran amuck.


Why Leave won

The Financial Times says it was a revolt by “the elderly, rural and traditional” what won the referendum vote for Leave. Ironically, a large proportion of the voters who handed Cameron his election victory last year forced his resignation this week.

Thursday’s vote became a referendum on the establishment, and separated the Euro-leavers from the Euro-sceptics. In emphatic fashion the establishment lost.

Prosperous London voted overwhelmingly for ‘Yes’, as expected. Perceptions surrounding immigration, sovereignty and financial contributions to the EU attributed to fears and frustrations amongst groups that feel left behind by globalisation.


What happens next?

Thursday’s result came as a shock to financial markets, no doubt, and questions from business around legalities of tax arrangements, travel, employment and financial regulations continue. Still, let’s remember Brexit is not Armageddon.

David Cameron remains as care taker PM.  His successor will trigger Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon treaty which sets up the two-year process whereby an EU can officially leave.

Until the UK does formally leave the EU, all existing legislation is expected to remain the same. When the UK does leave the EU, Westminster may review, retain or replace all existing legislation.

In Northern Ireland huge questions remain for a divided region that came together to voice its preference to stay in the EU: the status and make-up of the Irish border; the fate or replacement of EU funding; whether Leave pledges of a better National Health Service come true. Only time will tell.