With the final seven days of the election campaign looming, momentum appears to be with Labour – no pun intended – but can the party really complete a remarkable turnaround?

Whatever way you slice it, Jeremy Corbyn has had a pretty good week.

Today’s cover of The Independent

On Monday, the general opinion was that he had performed better than Prime Minister Theresa May in their much-hyped back-to-back non-debate, where the real loser seemed to be Jeremy Paxman. Brendan O’Neill wrote in The Spectator that “Corbyn or May would have instantly won tens of thousands of new voters if they had told him to bugger off.”

The Economist said even if the event proved inconclusive, the claim that Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister looked “less convincing than it did” writing that the Labour leader has “seemed in the campaign to be both more human and more moderate than many might have expected.”

The broadcast also probably gave us the GIFs of the campaign so far – with a sad solo standing ovation and a frank running commentary on one of May’s answers.

On Tuesday, what was intended as an apparently humorous Nye Bevan reference by May about Corbyn being “alone and naked” in Brexit negotiations failed to raise many laughs, while that night saw something of a shock YouGov poll for The Times indicate that the Tories could be heading for a loss of 20 seats and their overall majority, as support “appears to have plunged after the poor reception of the party manifesto.”

Mind you, two other polls the same night, from ICM and ComRes, both showed a 12 point lead for the Conservatives, indicating a comfortable majority. But even beneath the headline number the ICM poll in The Guardian showed Labour leading among unskilled working class voters for the first time in the campaign.

On Wednesday, Corbyn effectively scored a “tactical win” in the BBC’s leaders debate before it even started. After previously saying he wouldn’t do a televised debate without May, he joined six other party leaders on stage in Cambridge who collectively attacked her decision not to take part.

Out on the campaign trail, meanwhile, the Prime Minister was asked about the importance of public scrutiny, falling back on her stock answer on having faced Corbyn enough at PMQs and prioritizing taking questions directly from “people across the country”.

The Daily Mirror was having none of it.

The Daily Mirror wasn’t convinced by Mrs May’s explanation

At the debate itself, the Tories put Home Secretary Amber Rudd up in the PM’s stead – just two days after the death of her father – but she was always going to have a difficult, if not thankless, task. Julia Rampen in The New Statesman wrote that “Being the face of a right-wing government isn’t fun at the best of times, but standing in for the face of a right-wing government is even worse.”

Corbyn’s decision to join the debate reflected a wave of confidence among Labour supporters and a calculus on the part of the party that the more people see of their leader, the more they will warm to him – despite the media narrative.

Talking of which, the BBC felt it had to defuse claims of bias in the studio audience which had made it onto the front page of the Daily Mail.

Certainly recent anxiety among Tory strategists appears to persist, having seen their comfortable lead shrink. There have been warnings against complacency – “if I lose six seats you get Corbyn” – as well as a gentle nudge towards re-introducing the Conservative Party brand instead of ‘Team Theresa’.

All in all, it’s easy to see why Rod Liddle has called this the “worst Tory election campaign ever.” Former Tory Chancellor George Osborne also seems to be enjoying his new role as editor of the Evening Standard and that has to hurt.

On the other hand, by virtue of being the lesser of two evils, the Prime Minister won the endorsement of the Financial Times, who called the Conservatives a “safer bet” and Labour “unfit for government, let alone the delicate Brexit talks.” Jeremy Corbyn, the paper thinks, is a “pacifist relic of the 1970s in hock to the trade unions with no grip of economic issues.”

So where do we stand heading into the last full week?

An exclusive interview with The Independent sees Corbyn saying that only winning the election would constitute a “good result” for Labour.

Despite his optimism and the ground he has undoubtedly gained in recent days, many signs seem to be that a Tory victory is still the most likely outcome, although turnout among certain demographics will be key to determining the final picture.

Much has been made of the surge of young people registering to vote ahead of the deadline, but it’s worth remembering this analysis by BuzzFeed’s Tom Philips that there simply aren’t enough of them to swing the election as a single group.

The Prime Minister, who of course backed Remain in the referendum, will throw the focus back onto Brexit in the final week, calling it a “great national mission.”

Corbyn and Labour will be looking to consolidate their recent gains, particularly among women, and target those undecided voters who traditionally make up their minds towards the very end.

Andrew Hawkins, chairman of polling organization ComRes writes:

Very simply, if voters behave in the way they broadly did in 2015, then the Conservatives remain on track for a 100-plus majority.  This seems, on present assumptions, the most likely outcome.  Older people appear more motivated than younger people to vote, most of UKIP’s 2015 vote is going to the Conservatives (and that Party is not even standing in around half of all constituencies), May beats Corbyn on most ‘best for’ measures, and Labour’s core vote lacks motivation.

However… this remains a unique election – as quiet as 2005, yet highly volatile.

And it’s possible such volatility could continue even after election day, with rumblings that in any scenario short of a solid working majority the Prime Minister’s position will be weakened – both in her dealings with the EU and internally, prompting Tory wolves to circle. It wasn’t without significance that she was asked on Wednesday whether she would resign if her party performed poorly.

“The only poll that matters is the poll on June 8th,” she swerved.

True enough.

 

Also published on Medium.